Hi all,
Inspired by Natural9s homeplay idea, I started looking into betting on the home team in the last game of the round (monday night games) in the Australian NRL. Along the way I've seen some other betting opportunities that I like, mainly game/team totals. Having had some early success's I thought I'd share my tips on the forum here.
Disclaimer: I don't profess to be an expert tipper, I'm merely posting my tips based on my knowledge of the teams and average scores so far etc. If you wish to bet on anything that's posted here, bet within your limits and also try "paper-playing" first or use small units etc (use common sense).
If anyone else has a tip they'd like to share for NRL please feel free to post!
The odds posted will be (unless otherwise stated) from TAB sportsbet. Happy punting!
Roules
For Sunday 3/5:
Game Total points
St George Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors
41-50 @ $3.40
51-60 @ $6.25
Canterbury Bulldogs vs West. Tigers
31-40 @ $4.25
41-50 @ $3.30
51-60 @ $3.50
The average team totals for the year so far is 39/40 points per game so I generally aim for around that figure. The Dragons Warriors game "should" be a bit of a smash-em-up so I've aimed a bit higher there.
StG v NZW - 23 - loss
Bul v WST - 42 - win
-2 for the day
Better luck next weekend (wish I'd posted last nights, +11! always the way)
I've just realised too there is no monday night game this weekend due to the public holiday(in some states). The last game of the round resulted in the home team winning - Bulldogs 22 v West Tigers 20.
Australia vs New Zealand AND Country City tomorrow night.
I'm going to cover Australia for 3 bets ranging from 31-40, 41-50 and 50+
The odds are $3.50, $7.50 and $9.00 respectively.
Hopefully they will have a big game as their current odds of only $1.28 suggest.
For the Country City game I'm going for a total match score of 51-60 at $6.00. No other covering bets as it's anyone's game and these matches are only played once a year and can't be related to regular team's expectations.
Edit - my bet for the Aus/NZ game is for Australia's total score.
Quote from: roules on May 07, 2009, 06:02:52 AM
Australia vs New Zealand AND Country City tomorrow night.
I'm going to cover Australia for 3 bets ranging from 31-40, 41-50 and 50+
The odds are $3.50, $7.50 and $9.00 respectively.
Hopefully they will have a big game as their current odds of only $1.28 suggest.
For the Country City game I'm going for a total match score of 51-60 at $6.00. No other covering bets as it's anyone's game and these matches are only played once a year and can't be related to regular team's expectations.
Roules My Mate.
Why Not Dutch them at those odds Cobber.
30 x 3.50=105
14 x 7.50=105
11 x 9.00=99
.........
55 outlay for a minimum collect 99 Back Provide they win of Course.
Its nearly 4/5 ON........ for the whole 3 bets Buddy.
Good OnYa Mate.
Lanky.
Thanks for the tip Lanky. But, a thought did occur to me after I posted that - the kiwis wiped the floor with the Aussies at last years world-series......but I think Locky and his crew are up to the job.
Also, backing the kiwis at $3.50 x25 would post a small profit as well. But if the Aussies lose AND don't score 31 points it's more money lost.
Australia 48 and a win against the Kiwis more importantly :thumbsup:
Pretty much broke even (+half a unit) here, if only the Aussies weren't denied a couple of tries lol
Country City 58 Total points - win +5
Alas, I'm off for the weekend and as at the time of writing this all bets are still suspended for the weekend games. This is probably due to "the dust settling" from last nights games - some players will and won't back up to play their respective club matches thus the odds won't be finalized until this is known.
Well, tonight's game is the last of the weekend and neither team is playing at home so there will be no bet on the home side. I'll be covering the total match score from 31pts to 50pts(2 bets). The three games from the weekend produced a score of 41, 42 and 44, which would of been three wins, so although I didn't get to bet on them it was good to see the idea still hold up.
Total scores tonights game 40 points for a win (1 unit).
Bring on Friday!
Ok - here goes for tonight.
Broncos vs Titans - 3 bets looking for a combined match score of:
1. 41-50 $3.10
2. 51-60 $5.00
3. 61-70 $15.00
and
St George vs Bulldogs
1. 31-40 $3.10
2. 41-50 $3.10
50 and 38
+1 (and a bit) for the night
Sat**days games.......combined match score
Roosters vs Knights
1. 31-40 $3.40
2. 41-50 $3.10
3. 51-60 $4.25
Panthers vs Sharks
1. 41-50 $3.10
2. 31-40 $3.40
+1(n a bit) again for sat**day.
For Sunday - all three games 31-40 and 41-50 combined match score.
All 3 won.
+3 for the arvo :)
Didn't make it to the computer on Monday night but the home team won again which was good to see.
For Friday night, Eels vs Souths and Broncos vs Tigers I'm going for both to have a combined match score of 41-50 points (@$3.10), and just for the Broncos Tigers match 51-60 ($5.25) also.
So long as the Broncos win their game is the main thing though!
-3 tonight :(
Should of stuck with the average 31-50 point spread though the main thing - the mighty Broncos triumphed again! ;D
This will be my last post for a while on this topic - I've decide to stick with betting the averages of 31-40 and 41-50 per game as this has proven the best bet so far. So there's not much point posting this four times a week, save to say this has worked out pretty good even if the gains are small. Slow and steady wins the race! I reckon I'll stick with betting the last game of the week too as it's done well.
Cheers,
Roules