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Calvin6688 on GG, mentionned something about pattern distribution which I have begun to incorporate in my strategy.
What I like about this idea is the fact it offers new angles to consider and I think we are all here to get this little something more to think that can only be had by sharing and discussing intelligently.
I am about to talk about a pattern tracking method that offers a winning frame of reference and the beauty of it is that it's extremely easy to track and very powerfull.
Calvin6688 wrote: In a game of Baccarat Shoe, if it is disected into blocks of [5] we would deal with 32 patterns.
Here are these 32 patterns or 2^5 combinations:
01 BBBBB
02 BBBBP
03 BBBPB
04 BBBPP
05 BBPBB
06 BBPBP
07 BBPPB
08 BBPPP
09 BPBBB
10 BPBBP
11 BPBPB
12 BPBPP
13 BPPBB
14 BPPBP
15 BPPPB
16 BPPPP
17 PBBBB
18 PBBBP
19 PBBPB
20 PBBPP
21 PBPBB
22 PBPBP
23 PBPPB
24 PBPPP
25 PPBBB
26 PPBBP
27 PPBPB
28 PPBPP
29 PPPBB
30 PPPBP
31 PPPPB
32 PPPPP
In order to ease the process of tracking these 32 patterns we need to consider them by pairs. For example, lets consider the first two:
01 BBBBB
02 BBBBP
If we remove the last hand in each of these patterns we get this:
01 BBBB| <- last B removed
02 BBBB| <- last P removed
Seen this way, it becomes evident that we can get rid of one of them and just keep BBBB.
If we do this with every pair we end with this list:
01 BBBB
02 -
03 BBBP
04 -
05 BBPB
06 -
07 BBPP
08 -
09 BPBB
10 -
11 BPBP
12 -
13 BPPB
14 -
15 BPPP
16 -
17 PBBB
18 -
19 PBBP
20 -
21 PBPB
22 -
23 PBPP
24 -
25 PPBB
26 -
27 PPBP
28 -
29 PPPB
30 -
31 PPPP
32 -
or more concisely:
01 BBBB
02 BBBP
03 BBPB
04 BBPP
05 BPBB
06 BPBP
07 BPPB
08 BPPP
09 PBBB
10 PBBP
11 PBPB
12 PBPP
13 PPBB
14 PPBP
15 PPPB
16 PPPP
I use this list of 16 patterns to track the original 32 patterns.
Here is 23 hands and one possible way to chase these 32 patterns.
23 decisions with W/L bets:
01 P
02 B
03 B
04 B
05 B
06 P
07 P
08 P
09 B
10 P
11 B
12 B
13 B
14 P -1
15 P +1
16 P +1
17 B
18 B -1
19 B
20 B
21 P +1
22 P +1
23 P +1
The betting scheme in that sequence is to note each group of 5 hands as they occur and bet they will repeat.
Here is how to track them:
Note the last four hands of B/P, find the corresponding pattern in the reduced list of 16 patterns, wait for the next outcome and write P/B beside it. Repeat these steps : Note... Find... Wait... until you find an opportunity to bet. Here is the complete table at the end of these 23 hands.
01 BBBB P P
02 BBBP P P P
03 BBPB
04 BBPP P P P
05 BPBB B
06 BPBP
07 BPPB
08 BPPP B B
09 PBBB B P-
10 PBBP
11 PBPB B
12 PBPP
13 PPBB B
14 PPBP B
15 PPPB P B-
16 PPPP
Let's revisit these decisions. Take the first pattern in the reduced list: 01 BBBB
Look at hand #06 in the series of 23 hands. We have a P at that spot and we have four B preceding this hand so the complete pattern is BBBBP but I note it as one single P after 01 BBBB P. Later on in the series of 23 hands, at position #21, the same pattern repeats but prior to its completion at position #20 I knew the starting pattern BBBB had hit before and was followed by P. Using the reduced list of 16 patterns I can easily track the frequency of these patterns as they emerge from the shoe. It's like following 16 independant different streams.
Here is how I proceed to play these patterns that repeat. My hypothesis is that sooner rather than later one of these patterns should repeat simply because in all chaotic systems events tend to clump together or form clusters. We rarily see all these patterns hit one after the other in alternation for long period of time. The idea is to take advantage of this.
So we track them as explained above by writing P or B in the reduced list of 16. We look at the last four hands on a rolling basis and When one of them is on the verge to complete we look in the list what hand hit after this emerging pattern and bet it will repeat on the next hand. When I miss one attempt as it happened above (at two different times) for a given pattern, I disregard this pattern until the end of this attack, I consider it as not playable anymore. If you look at the tracking table at row 09 and 15, I have placed a minus sign at these two spots meaning I would disregard these two patterns from this point onward.
When you have accumulated four minus sign in your table, you start a new attack. In other words, you zap or reset your tracking table and start a new fresh attack.
However, the real fun begins and the full power of this approach emerges when you track in parallel 2^3, 2^4 and 2^5 patterns this way. When you do this, you end with 3 tracking tables like this:
-------------------
2^3 tracking table:
-------------------
eight patterns:
01 BBB
02 BBP
03 BPB
04 BPP
05 PPP
06 PPB
07 PBP
08 PBB
Reduced list:
01 BBB
02 -
03 BPB
04 -
05 PPP
06 -
07 PBP
08 -
Tracking table 2^3:
01 BB
02 BP
03 PP
04 PB
-------------------
2^4 tracking table:
-------------------
sixteen patterns:
01 BBBB
02 BBBP
03 BBPB
04 BBPP
05 BPBB
06 BPBP
07 BPPB
08 BPPP
09 PPPP
10 PPPB
11 PPBP
12 PPBB
13 PBPP
14 PBPB
15 PBBP
16 PBBB
Reduced list:
01 BBBB
02 -
03 BBPB
04 -
05 BPBB
06 -
07 BPPB
08 -
09 PPPP
10 -
11 PPBP
12 -
13 PBPP
14 -
15 PBBP
16 -
Tracking table 2^4:
01 BBB
02 BBP
03 BPB
04 BPP
05 PPP
06 PPB
07 PBP
08 PBB
-------------------
2^5 tracking table:
-------------------
-See beginning of this post
You can keep track of all these combinations 2^5=32, 2^4=16, 2^3=8 or 56 patterns by simply looking at three insignificant tables and writing B or P or R or B at roulette. This is just mind blowing the possibilities there are in there.
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Winning on both sides of the equation:
One side follows the last pattern while the other follows the opposite.
When there is a lost in one column it is disregarded until the end of the attack.
When all 4 columns of this 2^3 combinations are disabled a new attack is launched (a line is drawn when all 4 columns are disregarded)
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi75.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff75%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Fwinnin10.jpg&hash=a21bc82fdb488066fd75c98d6af28c389382fd1c)
Here is another example:
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg401.imageshack.us%2Fimg401%2F9848%2Fwinningbothsidesiiya7.jpg&hash=e6699e1408cf28d43fc7ff2bc6c80a606536d96b)
Arty, my mate, thanks for posting again.
We missed you :)
Truly hope something good comes out of this one.
Your friend,
Victor
Thanks Vic, i should have come back and say hello much sooner. BTW, have a peaceful and a prosperous new year!
To play this version you'll need this 2^3 tracking table:
01 BB
02 BP
03 PP
04 PB
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi75.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff75%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Fplayin10.jpg&hash=44e742d4459e08664489e8a696643c6507082398)
Now let's play the same hands but instead of targeting repeat patterns I'll target patterns that zigzag or alternate:
Remember, when i fail one attempt on a given pair of patterns, i disregard that pair until the next attack is launched.
I identify those pairs which have been rejected with a red circle.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi75.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff75%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Fplayin11.jpg&hash=96e21ebabb3480c72ff87a5b7ebffcad33cb68bb)
This last idea with 2^3 combinations can be used on the other ones 2^? namely 2^4 and 2^5 combinations. As I said, the possibilities are infinite and this is just one idea. Imagine combining not just 2^3..2^5 but also 2^6, 2^7, 2^8. Why not, the sky's the limit.
Here is another variation based on this frame of reference i have presented so far.
This time, i'll be using 2^4 combinations, i.e., 2x2x2x2=16 combinations in all.
This new variation is optimised to capture a specific type of pattern which tend to come out in an orderly fashion. It is very good to exploit these fugacious moments of balance between orderliness and unpredictability. Some name these type of patterns - elegant patterns.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi75.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff75%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Felegan10.jpg&hash=c18f91c5fd2a888448cfa518de476555f45dc22b)
New test on a real shoe :
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi75.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff75%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Felegan11.jpg&hash=13c1897ebf079223673879a195cc2975357ca77a)
Another true Shoe a comrade sent:
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi75.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff75%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Felegan12.jpg&hash=554e5b996b47d706a82a02d93654ccaa20e68b9e)
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi75.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff75%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Felegan13.jpg&hash=a26ac4e8caa2178a2dc65abea86060b817871cdd)
Hello Arte,
Thanks for your brilliant idea.I can follow the first part, it's well explained.
I can't figure out how to place the bets on the elegant pattern part.
Could you be kind enough to explain regarding placing of bets on the elegant pattern.
Thanks and regards
sniper
Hello Sniper,
Over the holidays period, I have been toying with these ideas now it's back to business. I won't have much time to explain the details. As soon as i can i'll try to post something. There are so many cool things we can do with these ideas. I'll apply some of them to the Forex market and see how they perform. You are the first person to post here beside Vic for a moment i thought this section was dead. ;D Have a prosperous 2009.
Here is a new update and improvement i did to the original idea:
This is just a small portion analysed from a set of more than 6000 hands coming from real shoes i got from a player:
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi45.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff45%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Fdemoiv10.jpg&hash=2ccb3d97dc7729c548996fa50f5a5c83c77fd0e6)
Arte, thank you very much. Wish you success in your forex challenge. I strongly believe you are heading in the right direction. I used to trade the futures,stock indexes and the currencies from 1980 to year 2000.I only used technical indicators and nothing else till my retirement in year 2000.
Best wishes and be hearing from you again.
sniper
Thanks Sniper and how did your speculative activities go in general as me too i am using technical analysis but also my creativity to the max.
Arte , good to see you back and creating , your ideas and efforts are always appreciated....Charlie :thumbsup:
Hello Arte,
It's nice to hear you are a die hard technical trader. I started trading on the floor doing scalping using point & figure technique. When I left the floor and trade from the office I can't scalp because the commission and slippage will take a big chunk out of my profit. I could be right percentage wise but negative on the statement.I devise a trading method to suit my tolerance on loses. I cant' take big losses.I studied and tested most of the technical systems in the market and also tried using artificial intelligence. Nothing satisfied me, most of them work a certain time but none is consistent.I realized something crucial is missing. Being a blackjack player and a card counter, I am being exposed to numerous gambling strategy and money management technique.I then tried to merge the gambling technique and technical analysis. The outcome was successful and enabled me to make enough to retire for good.Basically I used 3 simple moving averages to identify the trend.I used pattern breakout from point & figure charting as entry and exit timing signal. I only trade in the direction of the moving averages.In this way we will ALWAYS get more WINNING trade than losing trade.I used a fix profit objective and equal amount on stop loss.I start with one lot, add one on a loss on the next signal. On a win minus one lot on next signal. Minimum trade is always one lot.I don't know if this method is still applicable in today's trading.Anyway I survive to tell the story,maybe I am just lucky for 20 years.
Regards
sniper
Hi Sniper, thanks for the feedback. These 3 little pesky moving averages are still popular today but also always late regarding price action. There are some differences between price action and a random stream of decisions. Have you noticed these differences ?
Arte,
First, thank you for posting your ideas. I have been trying to figure out your new update and improvement to the original idea.... Please post the rules or give examples how to play the improved version.
Thank You
Philip
Hello Arte,
I fully agree with you that moving averages are a lagging indicator.In my case I only used it as a filter.I did not bother about the crossing.I only look at the direction of the 3 MA's. Whenever all 3s were pointing upward, I will enter long when the short term timing indicator signal buying.The opposite is for short trades. By doing this my percentage of winning trades increased tremendously. I usually hit winning streaks trading this way.
Regards
sniper
Quote from: sniper on January 08, 2009, 08:33:02 AM
Hello Arte,
I fully agree with you that moving averages are a lagging indicator.In my case I only used it as a filter.I did not bother about the crossing.I only look at the direction of the 3 MA's. Whenever all 3s were pointing upward, I will enter long when the short term timing indicator signal buying.The opposite is for short trades. By doing this my percentage of winning trades increased tremendously. I usually hit winning streaks trading this way.
I remember quite well at the beginning when i started to study the Forex market i just did not know by where to begin. What to look for? It was like landing in a completely new country without any maps. Someone suggested i should have a look at Hector Trader's web site (nolinks://nolinks.hectortrader.com/coursechapter1.php) which i did and it was quite a shock for me to learn new ways of considering price action as at first i was looking at price movement rather as a random chaotic stream of datas. I really like how Hector describes our Job as a trader :
...the job of a trader is similar to that of a detective. Before jumping into action, meaning entering a trade in the case of a trader or arresting a suspect in the case of a detective, there is a long job of investigation, sniffing around, considering different hypothesis, analyzing evidences, etc. Just as a detective doesn't quite get out there to arrest the first folk walking by, a trader doesn't quite pull out a chart and enters a position right away. Like I said before, there are plenty of things to do before that.
Hector helped me make my first steps into this Foreign country of the FX market. Some months later a professional trader with whom i used to discuss gambling systems and probabilities offered me to instruct me how to play the game as a pro. It was a privilege for me to get his assistance and it still is. It's unbelievable what i have learned over the past 8 months and what i can do with this knowledge. I always wanted to work from home and this FX market was the answer i was looking for. Knowing what i know now i would never attempt to learn the FX market without a mentor or a serious program which offers such help. It is just too much work to do by oneself. And having someone who can help speed the process dramatically.
Nice website arte,
I am starting to read about trading, and having an overview. There is something that i would like to quote from his website, which i find interesting cause we can apply it to the game of roulette:
"FAQ #7 - Is It A Mechanical System?
No, by no means I trade a mechanical system. In fact I don't believe in mechanical systems at all - I am sorry guys, but I am afraid trading is not so simple. No-one will ever make consistent money off the markets by trading something like: " when the 14 EMA crosses above the 34 EMA, and the MACD goes positive and the RSI curls above 30, then go long ". I must be honest with you folks: that doesn't work, regardless of what any savvy marketing wizard and his shinny cherry-picked historical charts tell you. Guys, let's try to think clear here for a moment: if anyone could make consistent profits from a mechanical system, don't you think that largest institutional players (you know, the people with the beefiest computers and with the resources to hire the best programmers and mathematicians) would utterly dominate the trading world? if trading was so simple that mechanical systems were consistently profitable, don't you agree that small fishes like us would never have a chance?
The cold truth is that newcomers always search for mechanical systems because they are indeed simpler to follow than discretionary methods. In a mechanical system, you don't need to learn how to interpret trends, how to identify levels of support and resistance or how to read price action; you simply follow the signals given by a combination of grandiloquent indicators and you're good to go. Needless to say, most newcomers fail to ever make a living out of trading."
JD
The philosophy of this guy is in line with mine too. To trade successfully you need to be good at pattern recognition as most of our analysis is done using visual clues only.
Arte,
Could you explain what makes the difference between roulette and trading ?
Both can be in a graph..
JD
Quote from: J.Daniels on January 08, 2009, 02:18:20 PM
Arte,
Could you explain what makes the difference between roulette and trading ?
Both can be in a graph..
JD
Good question J.Daniels, i'll use an analogy. Imagine a Casino where there are only roulette tables with no zero. Let's pretend 6 to 8 of them are very popular and visited by thousand of visitors but the organisation of the Casino is such that you can place a bet on all these tables at the same time or target just one of these at a time when you see what appears to be a good opportunity. The minimum bet amount can be as low as 1 cent to a max of 1 followed with many 0 :o This is for the organisation only. Next you have price movement or price action as it's called. It's chaotic but it is not. Price action will show personality traits or characteristics you can exploit on a daily basis while with roulette no such patterns are as reccurents. It's like looking at people from foreign country. Each of them will show different traits but you'll always be able to say he is chinese or african or American or French. See what i mean ? With roulette it's as if many different persons from different origins had decided to get together and produce a new breed of children with no discernable traits. With roulette it's like trying to look at an object which has no fixed propriety and is able to morph into something else each day. While if you look at a chinese person he can't look as an italian or change traits at will. This is the big difference and why you can make money long term without having to resort to use a martingale or other inneficient tactics. Oops! i almost forgot. You don't need to go out of your house to play the game. For me going to the Casino takes 2 1/2 hours so back and forth it is 5 hours that are lost. But as gambling, to speculate successfully you need to be psychologicaly strong. And finally, you don't do this business for entertainement. I have better fun pass-times for this.
Great answer Arte,
I would definitely go further and study it. Its a good thing you safe time which, as we all know, equals money.
I wonder if I could email you for some help from time to time if its possible.. I would really appreciate it.
JD
Arte,thanks for sharing.I like your ideas and approach.I will study further regarding your advise.Probably it's been a long time since I last traded and most of my method is obsolete.
Thanks & regards
sniper
Quote from: John on January 09, 2009, 11:29:16 AM
Arte, it sounds unnecessarily complicated. If you agree that no matter what you do you may have to handle at least 5 losses in a row.
Then, why not simply select one pattern from the 32 and play that. 31 ways to achieve at least a win in 5 outcomes, win and 1 way to lose 5 bets.
First, it is not complicated for someone used to handle numbers or patterns. Secondly, i am not looking at it as the final answer to the game but just as a technique to capture all kinds of patterns that exhibit symmetry. That was my original objective and in this regard it is successfull. This is probably the best and easiest way to capture elegant patterns. Now, whether it will make you win or not depends on two things. 1) your luck 2) good timing. But this is just the preliminary part of a more sophisticated approach i have in mind. For example using patterns of four items or hands or 2^4 combinations you can use them in a very efficient way and get a lot of wins considering it's a pure game of chance 50/50.
Here is an example: over +4 standard deviation. That my friend if very rare. And all this by using just a little bit of complexity. This is not for the lazy person intellectually speaking.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi65.servimg.com%2Fu%2Ff65%2F11%2F75%2F07%2F03%2Fholy_p10.jpg&hash=c59afdaf7bf80b99627834cb3771ab9a83e330b9)
What i nice result you got there Arte :)
Cheers Lucky Strike