Hi,
About 20+ years ago I worked at MIT and one guy (who explained the martingale method as how to win) decided he was going to the casino and play craps. He took $1000 and with $5 or $10 bets just bet pass until he moved the $1000 through the table. His results were incredibly close to the statistical .08 house advantage. He lost $10 or some statistically small amount. (Smaller than that I think).
The idea that always comes to my head when I see any gambling system is, if the house advantage is generally so small, then how is it that most gamblers, with or without a system, always seem to loose VAST AMOUNTS compared to any house edge?
It would seem :scratch_ones_head: that betting the exact opposite of whatever they are doing would lead to great profits :yahoo:. Of course I know that has been said a million times.
But the math is still true. Based on a small house advangage, whatever methodologies people are using seem to produce losses in great multiples of that advangage. Which simply means that reversing that would lead to profits.
Having placed that stake in the ground, I just simply wonder if the logic of betting and winning/losing is backwards. The reflex, if you will.
That is where I focus my efforts and starting point to winning. It is a known starting point.
Consider this. If you take away the zeros these same gamblers would still leave the casinos as losers. Most people leave once they spend the amount they were willing to lose.
Quote from: mogul397 on February 26, 2012, 03:11:06 PM
It would seem :scratch_ones_head: that betting the exact opposite of whatever they are doing would lead to great profits...
Wrong.
Good point crackers. Glad you can see what I mean.
And the point of it all is that we seem to be able to be able to reliably lose.
And lose big. (I do not lose nor is it my habit.)
But I am focused on this ability despite any odds. And am wondering
how to use it to my advantage.
"...that betting the exact opposite of whatever they are doing would lead to great profits"--Mogul397
Well, the exact opposite of Martingale I've learned is a positive progression--increase your stake after a win & reduce it on a loss.
I had posted that in another spot in this forum.
Let the casino play a martingale.. If it is so dangerous and stupid then they
will lose. (And you will leave collecting the table max minus your small
one unit losses)
Quote from: mogul397 on February 26, 2012, 03:11:06 PM
if the house advantage is generally so small, then how is it that most gamblers, with or without a system, always seem to lose VAST AMOUNTS compared to any house edge?
The house edge is a probability nothing more nothing less. A way of looking at it, is if a gambler has $10,000. and plays a 100 sessions with $100 in each session. Out of those 100 sessions he might have lost the whole $10,000 or he might have won an extra hundred thousand or he might have churned over an amount equaling $97,300. and ended with a loss of $2700. fitting the house edge probability.
It's a game of chance not an exact science. A gambler can take a $100 to the roulette table and leave with $5000 another player might leave with nothing. I think people get too hung up on the math IMO.
That is entirely true. And I was somewhat surprised at how close to the statistics
this guy came in that trial.
I like to think about it like breathing. You inhale the wins and wait out the exhale.
(If you can put that into a box). At least in the context of what you said.
A guy called "Mr C" would bet pass after 2-3 don't on the craps table. Made his living.
It was a matter of winning the clusters of shorter patterns when playing. Did what he
called the "movie test". Like when you go to a movie (and watch the table) and you
don't like the movie, you go to another one.
the maths do not lie. if you win it is pure chance. no skill is possible. when i lost. i used to blame myself. i should have done this .i knew the next number but did not back it. self delusion, my advice play for fun. but expect to lose in the long run.
All I can say is that I have known two people that made their living
gambling.
One craps and the other roulette.
I know of a professional gambler who makes a living from: sports betting, craps, roulette, PaiGow poker, Baccarat,sports betting advice, and seminars . It`s a 7 day venture except Christmas day.
Nathan Detroit
That sounds more like an obsession. Compulsion Not a profession..
I also knew a guy who made a living at the track. It took him like a 60 hour
week. He played all straight percentages. (Like a certain horse had a 5%
edge somehow. I forget). He said "I pump $1500 through the machines and
I get out $300". SOmething like that.
It was not pretty. IMO.
But that`s the way it is with this gent. It`s a message to all those wannabees who think pro gambling is an easy life.
BTW I forgot to include hand poker at the tables.
N.D>
if you wanted to make a living playing roulette. a thousand dollars a week . would that be enough. what kind of bankroll would you need. what bets would you make. its all right playing for a few dollars but when you play for big money its a lot different..
i have gambled all my life. but there no way i could make a living out of gambling. a thousand on red. there your first weeks wages. :diablo:
Don't forget the fellow that just left the Forum, Ken aka Mr. J. He says he has a $18,000 bankroll he keeps with him and plays $100 on a number, often leaving the casino with $7,000 or more per visit (also after about 10 hours of play.)
There was a reporter on 60 Minutes that said you have to have $5000 to make $5000. I'm inclined to think that very large bankroll is necessary to even think about making a living gambling.
It`s Ok if it works . But the drawdowns can be atrocious to the bankroll.
I know of a cat who lost 2.3 million Euro within 3 months covering 17 numbers ( average 2000 EURO per spin).
Just attempt this feat once with only a minimum $ 5 or 5 EURO . on 1 or 2 numbers and then report back what is left of the 900 Dollar/Euro bankroll which is equivalent to the 18,000.
What makes this reporter on 60 minutes such an "Expert" on gambling ? Its stupidity by proclaiming expected winnnigs of $ 5, 000 - with a relatively anemic $ 5, 000 bankroll. Lucky if you go home with a net of $ 500. in excess of the $5000 bankroll
............and the suckers are lapping it up.
Nathan Detroit
Well how did he play? So we call can do it?
I didn't know him.
I believe that you have to have money to grease the wheels to get any out.
Mr J created his method and he is comfortable with it . A copycat might not be so lucky.Being comfortable with a method , win or lose , is also what matters.
N.D.
what you do is play on the one dollar roulette. if you win increase your bets till you join the big league.
"What makes this reporter on 60 minutes such an "Expert" on gambling ?"--Nathan Detroit
I was in a hurry and misspoke. The reporter on 60 Minutes was speaking with a guy who made a very, very good living on sports betting (reference: he said he maid 7 million on the Super Bowl betting on the Saints). The bettor also said you need $5000 bankroll to make $5000.
Thanks for your correction . Sportsbetting differs from casino gambling .I know of a professional gambler who has sportsbetting on top of his list. That`s where the money is to keep him afloat
N.D.
QuoteThat`s where the money is to keep him afloat
I have met a few people on the internet who play betting exchanges as it's player against player rather than fighting a casino, they make a living from it, I too gamble at betfair and make money using principles I have found to almost work with roulette, house advantage clips them, but at the exchange there is no house edge. If you know what to play at the exchanges and how to recover from the inevitable loss your good to go.
Roulette is still on my mind and I still build the bots to battle it, but as I need to make money I go to betfair for that currently. Didn't have enough luck/skill on sports betting at betfair but have found the exchange games are much better.
What`s an exchange game ? Please give examples.
To me an exchange game would be the New York stock exchange LOL. That`s really high roller stuff there.
Thanks.
Nathan Detroit
QuoteWhat`s an exchange game ?
Holdem, Bacc, BJ, HiLo etc you can back or lay the selection of your choice.
Thanks for enlighten me. Well, I always make use of 3 games during any casino visit. Roulette, Baccarat, and Video Poker.
This is diue to the fact that all my sessions are of limited duration due to Loss limits and 3 Losses in a row at table games.
Video Poker is just to pick up points for eventual comps like overnite stays. It`s tough to get those points at the tables. But with my M.O. at the table I am glad I could get the privilege to go to the bathroom there.( L.O.L. )Playing within the range of $ 5 to $ 25.
Hey man I am going there for relaxation , not wanting to lose any money and being made a sucker by the casino whose suits think that people entertain the notion to make a living from gambling or trying to win back their losses.
They are barking up the wrong tree with this cat. Casinos are a branch of the entertainment industry and it shall always be that way.
Nathan Detroit
.
Quote from: Proofreaders2K on March 02, 2012, 09:57:46 AM
I'm inclined to think that very large bankroll is necessary to even think about making a living gambling.
i am also inclined to this one.
we all kind of agree that 20% profit of you session bankroll is doable.
lets say you have 1000units bankroll so 200units profit i think we will be satisfied with it.
but if you only have 100units bankroll and you already have 20units profit. do you think you will leave the casino?
1unit=1usd
just sharing my thoughts.
Like the man says :" If you wanna win more , bring more" .
N.d.
It is so much easier to be +5 in bets of $50 than +50 in bets of $5. :laugh:
Ron.
Can you play a living with roulette? I think that is very difficult. At a double zero roulette I think it is impossible. The advantage of the French roulette is between 1.35 and 2.7. If you are a very good and lucky player perhaps you will win 1 to 2% of your bets. So to win 100 euro you must bet at least 10000 euro.
There is no winning system. I believe in my knowledge of the randomrows of the different chances and my strategy.
In the past I have given some demos on a internet roulette. I never ended a session with a lost.
I don't think anybody could make it as a living at all. The random factor is just too huge. Maybe like a part time job will suffice. (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinkss%3A%2F%2Fimagicon.info%2Fcat%2F10-3%2Fsmile2.png&hash=471c4bfde9a8eaaecc106f26429c893406565ad6)