Marigny de Grilleu - +1 Unit ...

[I have cookies]

Staking plan.

Flat betting or humble progression.
Well i have run some tests and reach 3.0 STD flat betting and others has done the same - but its up to you to run your own simulations to verify or skip it - as i don't force any one to use it or study Marigny.

The House Edge.

You have to have a La Partage Rule and put a % on zero.
If you would flat betting you should use a staking plan like 731 where you lower your bets after +1 and have a new free ride for two attempts to capitalize on larger strings of wins.
After +1 you can not lose as two bets using 3 and 3 equals 6 and 1 and 1 equals 2.

The March TPS

Own development.

The March Basic

This is the originals.

The March Rapid

This is the originals.

The March Grind.

This is the originals.

[MauiSunset]

This post is based upon gamblers fallacy and the outcome is still 50/50 no matter what the past result is.

I don't take any responsibility for any of your action reading this or if you use it in real life.

The Perfect State.

You calculate that the singels are overrepresented and that the series are underrepresented and they should reach a bench mark of 3.00 STD.
Singels contra larger series is the values I mention above - the twist is that the underrepresented series are only allow to be present as singels events ( not two series that chop after each other ) and the singels contra series has also have to reach a bench mark of 3.00 STD - read referring link above for clarifications.

Now you have two states into one with the rule above with only singels present and series being underrepresented.

The March.

There exist variations of what kind of march to use - this one capture rapid drawdowns after indication towards present change.

If you revive a series of four you attack once it will become a series of five.
If a loss you attack the first series of two that appears and that it will grow.
Total of two attempts to gain +1 Unit or a loss of -2 Units.

If you revive two series to chop after each other you attack once it will become three series in a row.
If a loss you attack after the next first series appears and that they will chop.
Total of two attempts to gain +1 Unit or a loss of -2 Units.

If you get a mix of both you just bet accordingly towards has been mention above.
I will show and illustrate this with some visual samples.

The Law.

As every trail is independent with 37 degree of freedom - we can start measuring from any trail or position we like - that means that you can pick any window with a 3.0 std at any place during the distribution.

That is what we base our observations upon.

The Probability.

It dictates that the waves of the distribution after a 3.0 std rapidly or slowly stop to grow and other formation as opposite effect and part of drawdowns of a 3.0 std - start to appear and it comes in two different states.
Note, it can as anything also go back to back to certain degree - well nothing is due so sure it can hit a bench mark of 6.0 std - but that would mean a loss of two or four bets - just to give you a hint.

The Rules.

The playing modell using strict rules as follows.
You have to find a window within the first 100 or 150 trails with a 3.00 STD - depending on witch march you use to have time to capture drawdowns that not has to come rapidly as my example above.

The window of The Perfect State as the example above has with both singels and series be singels events and both has to be measuring to hit at least 3.00 std within minimum 16 events or at most 50 events - probability indicates less and tighter is better.

Team Play.

I assume the tracking of three even money postions during a short period of time every day would be 3x100 to 150 = 300
More wheels more opportunities.

I don't understand.

Standard deviations mean nothing for random numbers - zip, zilch, none.

This is pure gibberish - why not take the average too of a random number sequence?  It means nothing.

[I have cookies]

I don't understand.

I hear you and understand what you wrote - nothing new and I will still write about Marigny even if its based upon gamblers fallacy and every one is free to show how it fails or compare it towards any other selection flat betting as FTL or DBL.

I waste time and enjoy it - a hobby  
Continue to add lost ends in my previous reply tomorrow.

Pst ... You can continue to argue and I will still write about Marigny

Cheers

[birdhands]

This is great I have Cookies.  Thanks for your detailed explanation.  I'm looking forward to your next installment.

Sam

[birdhands]

Math and calculation:

First I will illustrate this with a simple example.
If you have 14 series of two "events" and 2 series of four "events" present as a sequence then you calculate as follows:

First you have to get the Absolute Std when you calculate.
Then you take 14 - 2 = 12

Now we want to get the statistical std so we continue with...
14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the Absolute Std  whit the sqr

12 sqr 4 = 3,00

The Statistical STD 3,00

Dummy chart:

What if we had 14 series of 2, 2 series of 4, and 1 series of 5 (which receives more points)?  What then?  Would it be 14 and 4= 2.34?

Sam

[I have cookies]

What if we had 14 series of 2, 2 series of 4, and 1 series of 5 (which receives more points)?  What then?  Would it be 14 and 4= 2.34?

Singels contra larger series.

14 singels has the value 14 as each singels has the value of 1
A series of 4 has the value of 2
A series of 5 has the value of 3

14/7 = 1.52 STD

Singels contra series.

14 singels has the value 14 as each singels has the value of 1
A series has the value 1 and you have three series witch is a value of 3.

14/3 = 2.66 STD

[I have cookies]

First we use the values for singels contra larger series 19/1 = STD above 3.00
Singels contra series 19/4 = STD above 3.00

From random org 20100726.

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[Mike]

There isn't much in english if you Google "Marigny de Grilleau", I only found this one:

nolinks://nolinks.win-maxx.com/basics/basics19.html

Which is straight up betting.

@ IHC, does the strategy you're describing here only cover the even money bets?

I would like to investigate it although I'm sceptical of the results you claim. Have you ever written a simulation to find out whether this works in the long-term or have you only done manual testing?

If you are able to give CLEAR and complete instructions as to how you play all variants then I will code it. But I can't do this if there are subjective elements or vague stuff like Gizmotron likes to post.

[I have cookies]

There isn't much in english if you Google "Marigny de Grilleau", I only found this one:

nolinks://nolinks.win-maxx.com/basics/basics19.html

Which is straight up betting.

@ IHC, does the strategy you're describing here only cover the even money bets?

I would like to investigate it although I'm sceptical of the results you claim. Have you ever written a simulation to find out whether this works in the long-term or have you only done manual testing?

If you are able to give CLEAR and complete instructions as to how you play all variants then I will code it. But I can't do this if there are subjective elements or vague stuff like Gizmotron likes to post.

Thanks Mike - that would be fun and i run them manual with simulation software witch pin point the 3.00 STD using specific rules.
I can post one at the time with complete rules - then if you find it in tressting you can code it - if you want.

Cheers

[Mike]

Ok cool. 

[MauiSunset]

This thread must be for UFO fans - it's totally "out of this world".

I suggest you read about STD at nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

If you want to use STD that means you are looking at observations from the mean - the mean of 36 Roulette numbers is 18 and:

1 STD is +/- 31% from 18 or 12 to 24 on the wheel

2 STD is +/- 48% or 9 to 27 on the wheel

3 STD +/- 49.8% or 1 to 36 on the wheel

If the point of this thread is to show the insane idea of using STD in Roulette well it has accomplished it's purpose.

If you guys find this fun, try taking the square rood of the last number +/- and build a system on that - just as insane.

Anyway, continue your debate - it's having me roll on the floor with laughter.....

P.S.

STD only means something if the mean/average means something.  If you are an airline and the average weight of a passenger is 200 pounds than 2 STD of 48% means you can expect passengers to weigh from +/- 96 pounds or 104 pounds (kids) to 296 pounds.  That makes sense.  You calculate your weight and balance based on 296 and can assume the aircraft will lift off the runway before crashing into the terminal.

STD of a deck of playing cards or dice or Roulette is the wrong use of a mathematical tool....

[Mike]

I think you've misunderstood the role of standard deviation in this application. IHC is using the standard deviation in regard to the number of wins in the last X spins. So if you only get 5 reds in the last 20 spins, the number of standard deviations from the mean (or the so-called "z-score") is about -2 with respect to red.

Technical traders use a similar concept, it's what Bollinger Bands are based on. The idea is that the number of standard deviations from the mean won't swing too far from +/- 3.0. According to the theory this covers 99.7% of the area under the bell curve.

Like I said, I'm sceptical that it will work, but this Marigny de Grilleau character seems to have had a certain reputation. He may have been a crackpot, but let's find out.

However, keep rolling on the floor if it makes you happy. 

[Kelly]

The last time I heard about someone who ran it on real spins was in the late 90`s.  I have no contact with those programmers anymore, they might not even be interested in roulette anymore. As I recall it, they testet 3.5 and 4 SD in 2 seperate tests.  Negative though.  Nice comparison to the Bollinger bands.

[MauiSunset]

I think you've misunderstood the role of standard deviation in this application. IHC is using the standard deviation in regard to the number of wins in the last X spins. So if you only get 5 reds in the last 20 spins, the number of standard deviations from the mean (or the so-called "z-score") is about -2 with respect to red.

Technical traders use a similar concept, it's what Bollinger Bands are based on. The idea is that the number of standard deviations from the mean won't swing too far from +/- 3.0. According to the theory this covers 99.7% of the area under the bell curve.

Like I said, I'm sceptical that it will work, but this Marigny de Grilleau character seems to have had a certain reputation. He may have been a crackpot, but let's find out.

However, keep rolling on the floor if it makes you happy.  

Bollinger Bands are totally worthless - STD means nothing when plotting any kind of average and determining when price must return to that average - totally bogus.

Well you guys can continue down this path - I've been down this path 20+ years ago and realized that Bollinger was full of BS - but his name is now famous.  For every instance it works there are an equal number that don't nolinks://nolinks.bollingerbands.com/

What you guys will eventually stumble upon is that one indicator is worthless by itself and you will find other indicators that are just as worthless and the idea will occur to you to combine 2+ worthless indicators into a super worthless indicator.

Best of luck guys.....

[birdhands]

If you guys keep feeding the troll he's never gonna go away.

[birdhands]

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