Hey VB Players: You've Been Busted!!

[gizmotron]

lol

Herb is light-years ahead of you when it comes to roulette.

Don't be stupid. Nothing that happens can effect the future. Just ask Herb.  

Being stuck on bias and then visual ballistics is not a sign of qualified experience when it comes to understanding and reading randomness. That makes herb a naive amateur. That makes you one too for thinking he's so smart. Go chase a car beggar.  

[Steve]

We all have our opinions about what reality is. Sure some are correct and some are wrong. Most of the time it's all just not worth the time and effort.

Based on what I know of Herb, he does know what he's talking about. However, arguably he doesnt appear to have an open mind to certain possibilities - I may be wrong. For example, there really does appear to be much more going on at a roulette wheel than just ballistics. I believe in part we do influence outcomes, but figuring out exactly what's going on may not occur in our lifetime. When it comes to things Spike says, sorry to say I dont agree either because I dont see any substantiating information, but I dont want to argue the point more as we'd just go in circles.

Anyway a possum shat on my car last night. To make matters worse, when I cracked my eggs this morning, the yolk ran instead of staying in-tact so I wasnt able to dip bread into the yolk. I cant handle anymore today - please everyone be nice.

[Spike!]

Herb is light-years ahead of you>> and >>arguably he doesn't appear to have an open mind to certain possibilities>>

Somewhere in between these two opinions, Herb is hiding, trying to learn. Too bad his math education is his biggest obstacle.

>>Anyway a possum shat on my car last night.>>

When you let a possum drive, thats what you get. We only let racoons drive in the States, they respect your property.  

[Spike!]

Spike and Gizmotron,  I doubt anyone will speak up.>>

And if they do, it will have as much meaning as 1st graders voicing their opinion on college alegbra.

[Kelly]

Spike/gizmo, you two sure know how to run a board down.  I thoght you guys said that only newbees and other imbeciles was present here on vls, now you can`t live without it. 269 posts in no time.  What the hell, maybe you two consider yourself to be in that category, so you feel home here. The only thing is that even the newest newbee seems to have a more down to earth relationship to roulette than you two.

Another spike brain failure:
"Spike: Any positive progression is non sense, but flat bets where i raise my bets as i win  is great. (thats the same thing idiot) i just calculate how many bets im gonna win for the next 10 spins and calcuate an average (you can`t know how many spins you are gonna win in the next 10 spins idiot)"  Just theory from someone who obviously never took the MO further than to the PC.

VB is not dead with the air ball machines out, and they are not all out,  just an overlooked opportunity soon gone.  Plenty more where they came from.

Vls RIP

[gizmotron]

Kelly, you are just another guy ripping on Randomness. I never left here. My section on Randomness is still here. You have no idea what I passed by you guys. I blew it right over your heads. There will never be an argument that makes me think that I'm doing anything wrong. I don't care if you can calculate the physics and win with it. The casinos have got your number. Nothing lasts forever. You have your world, I have mine. I just don't need snowman with his Nazi gas chambers. He's just too cool for school.

[atlantis]

Anyway a possum shat on my car last night. To make matters worse, when I cracked my eggs this morning, the yolk ran instead of staying in-tact so I wasnt able to dip bread into the yolk. I cant handle anymore today - please everyone be nice.

Hi STEVE,

This morning as I was buttoning my shirt, a button fell off. After that, I picked up my briefcase, and the handle fell off. Then I went to open the door, and the doorknob fell off. I went to get into my car, and the door handle came off in my hand. Now I'm afraid to pee.

A.

[Spike!]

win for the next 10 spins and calcuate an average (you can`t know how many spins you are gonna win in the next 10 spins idiot)>>

Sure you can, if you know your average hit rate. For you it would be how many you're going to lose in the next 10 spins. I'm sure you know and can come real close, Kelly.

VB is not dead with the air ball machines out>>>

Not dead, but it sure is on life support. Soon the only VB left will be with roulette computers, doing it without help will be impossible.

>>Spike/gizmo, you two sure know how to run a board down.>>

Right. We left GG and now if there are 4 posts a day in the roulette section they throw a party. And half of those are from Galeb and Snowman. Go to GG, Kelly, they really need you there..

[Kelly]

Atlantis, lol, good one. don`t wipe your ass either.

Gizmo,  your advice comes in the category  where someone giving chess advice would say: "When your opponent gets a weak spot in his position you slowly manouver him backwars and extends his weak position untill he has to give up. See ? How can you lose ?"
The player is left baffled: "But what do i do"
reply: "Just follow my advice, don`t say i didn`t show you"

The player is left with the feeling that the advisor don`t really know what to do, just trying to give "smart ass" advice.

[Kelly]

Spike, what good is an average hit rate if one loses the next 9 spins and win the next 11 or more likely, having a temporary drawdown with smaller than average hit rate for a while and then later a larger run of wins giving you a higher than average hitrate ?

Using the Kelly criteria you curvefit your bet sizes to be smaller as you lose and bigger when you win.  Using an average you will overpay the casino in the losing streaks, say over 3 months time,  and underpaying yourself in the winning streaks again in the next 3 - 4 months time. Im not talking about 10 spins, but a larger run over a years time. 

[gizmotron]

Gizmo,  your advice comes in the category  where someone giving chess advice would say: "When your opponent gets a weak spot in his position you slowly manouver him backwars and extends his weak position untill he has to give up. See ? How can you lose ?"
The player is left baffled: "But what do I do"
reply: "Just follow my advice, don`t say I didn`t show you"

You just make up sophistry and  pretend that you had a realistic discussion don't you. I clearly say the strategic advantage comes from a complete understanding of the characteristics of randomness. I've named four primary characteristics. I have also freely shared that effectiveness comes in three states. I have deliberately made it clear that I'm never going to take anyone down a journey of step by step instructions. Anyone with half a brain should not expect to be spoon-fed like a baby. The entire argument is that anyone willing to work hard enough will respect those that suggest keeping this for themselves. I take it that you lose at chess too? No wonder there.

[Kelly]

Im sure someone would have come up with a strategy if they could transfer your advice to roulette then.  Bayesian state of knowledge doesn`t trigger anything to anyone.  But it soiunds fancy, gotta admit that.

[Spike!]

what good is an average hit rate if one loses the next 9 spins and win the next 11>>

If reading random meant I would lose 9 in a row, I'd quit playing. You're talking about what the average know nothing player expects. I know my average for 10 bets and its always within the same parameters.

[gizmotron]

Im sure someone would have come up with a strategy if they could transfer your advice to roulette then.  Bayesian state of knowledge doesn`t trigger anything to anyone.  But it soiunds fancy, gotta admit that.

It was never meant to be. It's a direct answer to the mathboyz and their endless droning of what probability stats for long term results must be, the only absolute truth. My point has always been that math is worthless. I would never use a math solution for detecting an advantage based on clustering analysis and pattern recognition. I would use a complex form of conditional algorithms that detect weak points and attack scenarios that are advantageous. I would use a computer if the casinos would allow it. I'm forced to use my intellect to find these weaknesses. It doesn't bother me that I see things where others only see nothing. Right now you are suffering from intelligence fallacy. It's easy for me to see this. When will you?

[Spike!]

>>Bayesian state of knowledge doesn`t trigger anything to anyone.>>>

Who's fault is that? Are you blaming me for other's ignorance?

Bayesian Probability:

an analysis of the "system" (random): the understanding and interpretation of

what is going on in the system. (random outcomes)

• predictions:(guesses) about how the "system" will evolve in the near future

• decisions:(betting) What actions should be taken on the basis of the available information?

They use Bayesian probability to teach robots how to process what to them is random information, and make sense out of it. They teach them how to read random. My, what a concept.

Clear as a bell to me.

>>My point has always been that math is worthless. >>

The math assumes all you can ever do is make random bets against random outcomes. Thats its flaw. As soon as you get the smallest part of your foot in the door, the math changes to being in your favor.  The MathNazis have red faced fits over his, they hyperventilate and tip over backwards at the very notion.  Very funny to observe.

[Spike!]

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