Who can answer this question?

[kav]

Take any number. Let's say number 1.
In 1000 appearances of this number,
how many times the number appeared immediately after the previous appearance (in the next spin)
how many times it appeared after exactly 2 spins
how many times after exactly 3 spins
etc.
etc.
how many times it appeared after exactly 100 spins
etc.
etc.

Is there anyone who can run such a simulation and tell us the results?
Or can someone calculate these numbers using probability theory?

thanks

[Bayes]

If I understand you correctly, you need to use the geometric distribution. The probability that the first success will occur on the x^th trial is:

p(x) = p(1 - p)^x-1

So for a single number, p = 1/37 and 1 - p = 36/37

The probability that the number will hit on the first spin is p(1) = 1/37 × (36/37)⁰ = 1/37

The probability that the number will hit on the second spin is p(2) = 1/37 × (36/37)¹

The probability that the number will hit on the third spin is p(3) = 1/37 × (36/37)²

The probability that the number will hit on the fourth spin is p(4) = 1/37 × (36/37)³

See the pattern?

You can easily set this up in a spreadsheet.

[kav]

Bayes,

Your equations are correct.
Nice to have someone like you here.
Thank you for your help.


Btw, do you see someting that could lead to a betting method here? food for thought.

[Bayes]

Here is what Louis G. Holloway in his book "Full Time Gambler" had to say about getting an edge at roulette:

On one hundred thousand authentic roulette numbers I made a "gap book". Each number was tabulated in terms of the gap figure between hits. Then each split, each street, each four-block, each six-block, each dozen, each column, and each even money play was "gapped". This greatly condensed the big run of numbers and put the whole thing into a new perspective or dimension. Through this kind of work, one is able to learn the true value of patterns and to avoid being tricked by coincidence.

By plotting graphs from the totals of each approach, we can determine the peak of each cycle - when to get in and when to get out. Ridiculous, you say? They said that about the atomic bomb, television, and the airplane too. I am not saying we know exactly when to pick up a number or group of numbers. What I am saying is that over the long-range period we can and do turn the percentage and improve cold selecting.

Was he right?

Here is a list of a thousand hits of the number 1. The number 1 first occurred after 8 spins, then there was a gap of 87 before it hit again, then a gap of 47 etc.  Try plotting the numbers in a spreadsheet, and see if you can find any reliable patterns. It's not easy!  

If you think you've found a reliable "trigger", form a hypothesis. It could be something like "I believe that when there are 2 gaps of 30 or less, then the next gap will be also less than 30".  Then put it to the test.

1   8
2   87
3   47
4   14
5   16
6   34
7   69
8   14
9   86
10   58
11   60
12   57
13   21
14   12
15   64
16   18
17   6
18   94
19   30
20   15
21   7
22   10
23   26
24   97
25   73
26   0
27   35
28   53
29   44
30   1
31   52
32   32
33   12
34   25
35   47
36   40
37   50
38   12
39   23
40   0
41   0
42   58
43   3
44   88
45   5
46   20
47   1
48   31
49   61
50   0
51   7
52   28
53   6
54   37
55   123
56   27
57   2
58   22
59   30
60   10
61   23
62   66
63   15
64   9
65   13
66   70
67   38
68   8
69   3
70   17
71   27
72   14
73   12
74   95
75   139
76   28
77   10
78   85
79   4
80   8
81   34
82   68
83   55
84   43
85   65
86   58
87   14
88   65
89   67
90   48
91   39
92   55
93   16
94   13
95   87
96   2
97   67
98   114
99   180
100   225
101   31
102   76
103   3
104   53
105   16
106   56
107   171
108   22
109   112
110   200
111   53
112   39
113   13
114   113
115   5
116   58
117   40
118   1
119   79
120   0
121   16
122   10
123   27
124   45
125   84
126   13
127   77
128   19
129   105
130   165
131   1
132   3
133   18
134   14
135   6
136   1
137   48
138   129
139   7
140   25
141   8
142   20
143   6
144   5
145   21
146   21
147   1
148   12
149   16
150   1
151   43
152   82
153   21
154   78
155   43
156   9
157   3
158   37
159   1
160   3
161   22
162   6
163   11
164   59
165   42
166   10
167   0
168   3
169   38
170   34
171   36
172   33
173   8
174   37
175   106
176   9
177   85
178   2
179   11
180   24
181   21
182   71
183   13
184   1
185   45
186   27
187   49
188   58
189   27
190   128
191   51
192   3
193   122
194   59
195   48
196   1
197   46
198   4
199   20
200   6
201   15
202   6
203   85
204   46
205   51
206   40
207   20
208   86
209   6
210   183
211   18
212   111
213   19
214   39
215   9
216   16
217   104
218   13
219   0
220   16
221   4
222   16
223   28
224   271
225   62
226   3
227   3
228   37
229   161
230   7
231   77
232   10
233   3
234   25
235   5
236   28
237   20
238   0
239   18
240   194
241   93
242   4
243   7
244   13
245   7
246   10
247   17
248   9
249   63
250   72
251   34
252   29
253   42
254   20
255   9
256   100
257   3
258   5
259   104
260   3
261   28
262   24
263   4
264   4
265   33
266   105
267   93
268   16
269   0
270   10
271   115
272   0
273   24
274   38
275   11
276   11
277   29
278   5
279   61
280   17
281   17
282   7
283   53
284   64
285   28
286   71
287   20
288   2
289   67
290   1
291   48
292   65
293   44
294   9
295   68
296   108
297   28
298   17
299   56
300   13
301   23
302   92
303   17
304   3
305   72
306   78
307   82
308   2
309   35
310   49
311   38
312   66
313   9
314   12
315   11
316   2
317   9
318   44
319   76
320   74
321   81
322   50
323   158
324   50
325   6
326   6
327   17
328   4
329   30
330   28
331   14
332   17
333   8
334   17
335   1
336   9
337   48
338   18
339   34
340   50
341   10
342   4
343   135
344   12
345   35
346   164
347   5
348   1
349   6
350   21
351   78
352   14
353   36
354   105
355   9
356   25
357   69
358   24
359   27
360   38
361   26
362   86
363   6
364   52
365   3
366   3
367   17
368   46
369   42
370   33
371   10
372   12
373   0
374   35
375   41
376   67
377   75
378   2
379   18
380   4
381   141
382   71
383   2
384   7
385   24
386   63
387   6
388   15
389   0
390   19
391   16
392   44
393   18
394   6
395   32
396   77
397   25
398   19
399   7
400   13
401   43
402   59
403   45
404   18
405   85
406   5
407   9
408   24
409   10
410   25
411   73
412   42
413   29
414   39
415   8
416   65
417   41
418   62
419   3
420   58
421   22
422   16
423   71
424   44
425   58
426   59
427   28
428   33
429   1
430   17
431   16
432   73
433   76
434   69
435   21
436   0
437   20
438   94
439   25
440   61
441   35
442   113
443   0
444   14
445   3
446   28
447   11
448   30
449   47
450   82
451   67
452   48
453   13
454   54
455   4
456   10
457   24
458   12
459   66
460   27
461   34
462   0
463   44
464   10
465   9
466   1
467   69
468   20
469   20
470   92
471   8
472   59
473   189
474   11
475   78
476   5
477   57
478   9
479   34
480   12
481   14
482   30
483   13
484   48
485   1
486   11
487   0
488   68
489   36
490   15
491   61
492   39
493   87
494   21
495   36
496   0
497   44
498   6
499   98
500   22
501   9
502   18
503   34
504   49
505   3
506   24
507   33
508   86
509   23
510   15
511   96
512   52
513   45
514   12
515   21
516   2
517   104
518   43
519   162
520   7
521   38
522   4
523   9
524   2
525   5
526   1
527   4
528   4
529   21
530   15
531   27
532   37
533   14
534   0
535   36
536   69
537   53
538   39
539   87
540   49
541   49
542   15
543   23
544   51
545   31
546   89
547   13
548   24
549   6
550   29
551   66
552   33
553   189
554   9
555   66
556   88
557   58
558   4
559   19
560   41
561   46
562   67
563   1
564   34
565   13
566   20
567   47
568   13
569   25
570   15
571   77
572   32
573   18
574   17
575   3
576   4
577   34
578   60
579   8
580   30
581   67
582   2
583   8
584   42
585   38
586   3
587   50
588   12
589   40
590   70
591   100
592   0
593   25
594   40
595   91
596   49
597   24
598   23
599   29
600   41
601   65
602   74
603   9
604   20
605   90
606   34
607   31
608   15
609   47
610   0
611   11
612   160
613   47
614   29
615   16
616   6
617   10
618   55
619   106
620   6
621   59
622   27
623   55
624   2
625   14
626   28
627   2
628   3
629   6
630   95
631   51
632   27
633   45
634   1
635   63
636   39
637   8
638   0
639   15
640   29
641   1
642   1
643   9
644   0
645   72
646   12
647   10
648   86
649   19
650   61
651   9
652   8
653   46
654   33
655   80
656   5
657   3
658   27
659   77
660   64
661   6
662   71
663   14
664   41
665   18
666   2
667   8
668   81
669   2
670   17
671   50
672   33
673   23
674   6
675   17
676   73
677   10
678   47
679   41
680   63
681   57
682   38
683   40
684   72
685   19
686   45
687   29
688   200
689   30
690   28
691   28
692   25
693   46
694   4
695   40
696   37
697   15
698   49
699   9
700   13
701   49
702   14
703   39
704   25
705   125
706   29
707   15
708   114
709   13
710   2
711   27
712   23
713   4
714   44
715   115
716   20
717   7
718   25
719   50
720   71
721   64
722   47
723   2
724   18
725   0
726   28
727   2
728   58
729   14
730   44
731   0
732   17
733   14
734   42
735   13
736   34
737   51
738   8
739   96
740   152
741   12
742   30
743   15
744   26
745   81
746   11
747   7
748   15
749   121
750   2
751   16
752   32
753   15
754   11
755   100
756   9
757   8
758   34
759   6
760   7
761   1
762   16
763   39
764   53
765   49
766   29
767   31
768   15
769   7
770   1
771   40
772   34
773   10
774   4
775   1
776   93
777   20
778   12
779   2
780   60
781   46
782   28
783   35
784   22
785   77
786   0
787   37
788   77
789   56
790   17
791   28
792   23
793   23
794   88
795   12
796   4
797   41
798   12
799   2
800   15
801   11
802   11
803   176
804   34
805   0
806   45
807   2
808   11
809   73
810   4
811   13
812   111
813   157
814   30
815   13
816   19
817   1
818   3
819   26
820   75
821   91
822   0
823   6
824   102
825   37
826   37
827   3
828   1
829   16
830   74
831   5
832   47
833   55
834   26
835   53
836   0
837   79
838   12
839   32
840   3
841   23
842   23
843   5
844   18
845   75
846   54
847   12
848   1
849   2
850   16
851   28
852   26
853   57
854   28
855   62
856   7
857   17
858   36
859   8
860   25
861   5
862   30
863   3
864   44
865   22
866   90
867   12
868   7
869   0
870   56
871   91
872   30
873   17
874   22
875   6
876   4
877   14
878   41
879   13
880   27
881   49
882   139
883   27
884   18
885   52
886   129
887   15
888   43
889   36
890   13
891   152
892   47
893   10
894   33
895   63
896   134
897   14
898   65
899   19
900   16
901   127
902   18
903   2
904   25
905   0
906   9
907   31
908   37
909   82
910   13
911   40
912   1
913   51
914   50
915   30
916   8
917   17
918   2
919   36
920   10
921   5
922   18
923   9
924   137
925   75
926   63
927   72
928   10
929   116
930   33
931   68
932   10
933   5
934   11
935   5
936   29
937   20
938   7
939   5
940   28
941   23
942   30
943   18
944   0
945   155
946   62
947   26
948   30
949   63
950   58
951   6
952   221
953   45
954   16
955   162
956   26
957   36
958   64
959   0
960   20
961   3
962   46
963   5
964   14
965   9
966   37
967   38
968   10
969   19
970   4
971   6
972   45
973   9
974   11
975   29
976   35
977   27
978   2
979   55
980   15
981   89
982   223
983   40
984   221
985   1
986   50
987   41
988   150
989   22
990   91
991   12
992   76
993   7
994   73
995   122
996   53
997   39
998   11
999   31


p.s.  Kav, nice web site. 

[gizmotron]

The point of finding a useful meaning of hot number distribution is to understand its nature. With that you might be able to exploit that understanding. The hottest numbers flow from extremely hot to mildly hot states. I'm not saying the these numbers change from hot to warm, although they do at times. I'm saying that the currently hottest few numbers are very hot or just mildly hot. An example would be anything above 20 hits per 300 spins for the very hot. A normal hot number will hit from 12 to 18 times in 300 spins. There will be a few very cold numbers too. They will hit from 1 to 5 times in 300 spins. The average is 8 times. It takes 9 hits in 300 spins to end just above even. So the payoff odds for a single hot number are 8/9 out of 300 spins.

So how do you find a sequence you like while playing 300 spins? A mildly hot number happens on average, over 300 spins, at about every 20 spins for 15 hits out of 300. Of course it's not going to happen at every 20 spins. Some are going to be less than 10 and some are going to more than 30. There will probably be a long stretch too, something longer than 60 during that 300 spins. The trick is to become aware of commonalties of 300 spin sequences. It's difficult to get 300 spins at a real casino on a real wheel. It takes as much as ten to twelve hours of continuous play.

I suggest understanding Roulette in sequences of 300 spins or less. Thousands and thousands of 300 spin sequences are more valuable to you than a million spins.

[Bayes]

Betting on a few numbers can be very profitable, in fact it's mathematically the soundest way to play. With long-shots the "bunching" effect is more pronounced, and you can often take advantage of this.

But yes, some can't take the volatility.  

[gizmotron]

Yes until you fall for fools gold and rely on a number that goes on holiday for 200 plus spins. Then its wipeout. Straights are where all the negatives hopes and dreams live. YOU WILL LOSE LONGTERM FOR CERTAIN WITH THEM.

Normal hot numbers hit within 15 to 20 spins, across a 300 spin stretch, on average. So any number that goes past 30 should be switched to another hot number. The trick to randomness is in making changes that work. So find a good reason to change numbers, and when, and you should have a very good system. Only a fool expects to win every time you use a rule based system.

[Bayes]

Fender,

I'm sorry but you simply don't know what you're talking about. No-one is suggesting you pick a single number and stick to it religiously for hundreds of spins. Your ideas seem to be very limited regarding straights - stick to your dozens if they frighten you, but don't offload your ignorance on everyone else!  

It's a common misconception that betting on a lot of numbers (or the outside bets) is safer than betting fewer numbers. Not so.

[gizmotron]

Straights are the fastest way to the poor house AVOID!

You will change your tune in less than a year, here at this forum. Inside numbers are the only way to create other groupings not offered by the outside portions of the layout. You think they are different but mathematically they pay out the same as the outside bets. If you bet any random 18 numbers on the inside it's an EC bet. Three line bets are 18 numbers.  You don't know that at least three numbers will be hot for 300 spins. I don't bet the hot numbers because I would have to sit there for 12 hours while incredible things happen in other groupings. I reverse engineered your Zone system and came up with a bet that works for every spin without waiting for triggers. Let's see if you have enough experience for that. You are stuck on magical beliefs and errant conclusions. That's the current state of your experience.

[kav]

Bayes,

Thank you for your compliments and your data.
Louis G. Holloway's book is out of print, and very sought after. A very good book - It would be helpful if you could share more excerpts from it.

Giz,
It's obvious you know a thing or two about hot numbers 

fender,
please don't be so narrow-minded and please do not "hijack" this thread.

[sherminator]

Straights are the fastest way to the poor house AVOID!

I will have to respectfully disagree with you there Fender. On saying that, I have experimented with some methods where I am betting 28 numbers and the results are amazing. It is all about bet selection regardless of just betting 1 number or 28 numbers. Get that part right and you would not need to consider the use of progressive betting.
Eventually you will have to accept that probability has no memory and will see that progressive betting offers you no advantage other than an illusion that you are somehow getting one over on the house. Unfortunately this is not the case.

[kav]

wow! That was really revealing!!! First time I hear such wise words.
Keep up the good work, keep us infirmed and on the right track!

[kav]

well thats what you get for asking silly questions, you are not going to get an answer such as" OH YES THATS HOW YOU BET, YOU HAVE THE HOLY GRAIL" not gonna happen, you will either be lucky or lose, and in the long run, you will lose and lose period!

You really know what you are talking about. Thanks for the insight and above all the warnings. If it weren't for your wise advice I'd lose all my money. But now I follow your advice and I'm happy.

Btw, how do you know what will happen in the long run? How can you be sure one will not be lucky and win. If you think you know what will happen in the long run, it is like believing that something (in this case the lösing run) is DUE. I thought that believing something (anything - even losing) is due, is gamblers fallacy. Hmmm... You used a "gamblers fallacy" way of thinking, to prove that losing is certain.

Anyway this is probably too complicated for you to understand. Let's keep it simple: None will win, there's no way to beat roulette, the house edge is king, we are all losing our time here. OK, I will repeat after you, again and again. Roulette is designed to beat me!!!! Man do I feel much wiser now!
Thanks for sharing you deep knowledge of the issue of roulette. What would have we done without you?

[kav]

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