SPLIT (cheval) with 80% chance of hitting in the session

[Dane]

Each dozen consists of two wellknown double streets or six lines. Each of these groups can be split into three splits:  1-4/2-5/3-6
                                                                                                                                                                                        7-10/8-11/9-12
                                                                                                                                                                                     13-16/14-17/15-18
                                                                                                                                                                                     19-22/20-23/21-24
                                                                                                                                                                                     25-28/26-29/27-30
                                                                                                                                                                                     31-34/32-35/33-36.
When one of the three splits comes, start betting on it (flat betting).  Leave it if one of the other two splits comes.
The session ends, if you have just won. But it also ends, if exactly FOUR of the SIX main groups have been left.
I might not be the first one to come up with an idea like this. But with a little help from an electronic calculator I can easily prove, that the probability of hitting a cheval in one session is 80%: 1-(2/3)^4 = 0,8.
                                                                                Dane

[TwoCatSam]

But it also ends, if exactly FOUR of the SIX main groups have been left.

Does that mean a sessions ends if exactly four of the double streets have not had a split hit?

Sam

[Dane]

We leave a double street (and its splits) if it turns up twice. The sessions ends at the latest when FOUR of the double streets have repeated .  In 80% of all sessions we hit a split and stop.  80% is an overwhelming probability. 
                                                                                                   Dane

[TwoCatSam]

Dane

Very clear now.  Thank you.

Sam

[Dane]

Always at your service!  As you know, I prefer flat betting. But it might be tempting to double up after leaving just two groups. 1-(2-3)^2 = 0,555555.
If you look at three sessions, you may find that you´ll hit in all three in most cases:  0,8^3 = 0,512.
                                                                                                                                                                       Dane

[TwoCatSam]

I am playing right now on Dublin.  This method bears investigation!

Sam

[Loek2000]

Played 32 games. Live wheel unit 10 cent. +4,70 euro. Looks interesting.

[insidebet]

The problem is that very often a hit comes with losing units anyway.

Insider

[Dane]

The problem is that very often a hit comes with losing units anyway.

Insider

You are right!  And maybe we do not need to have a hit in 80% of all sessions.  70%  should do! 1-(2/3)^3 = 0,7037.  In other words:  The cautious player might choose to end the session at the latest when just three double streets have been left.
  However it does not solve this problem: Any left double street may dominate and cause more trouble and more losses.  The problem could be solved by betting on the double street  when we have left its earliest split.
                                                                                         Dane

[Dane]

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