hi guys,
for results that sort of zickzack, which progression would you use? the results if've attached come from flat-betting one unit on the even chances.
thanks already for your oppinions.
:) :) :)
My Dear friend,
No progression will make you money esp, when you are playing roulette.
There are only 4 rules to win/keep yourself in the game.
1. Flat bets.
2. Shorter Playing sessions
3. Exit point (You need set the Goal before you start session. i.e -40 stop +60 stop).
4. Withdraw money when you are up by X(define yourself) units. Don't keep bankroll bigger, because I am sure you will lose control when losing streak strikes.(This is the biggest problem in gambling).
If you are not following anything above, you I am sure you don't know what you are doing.
Please brother I have almost tesed all Progressions with few thousands of spins, not even 1 system gave positive result. :-\
Regards
Negative expectation and you talk about flat betting.
How?
I am all ears!
LS
hi lucky,
was your question for allin or for me?
Quote from: Allin on May 03, 2009, 08:03:44 AM
My Dear friend,
No progression will make you money esp, when you are playing roulette.
There are only 4 rules to win/keep yourself in the game.
1. Flat bets.
2. Shorter Playing sessions
3. Exit point (You need set the Goal before you start session. I.e -40 stop +60 stop).
4. Withdraw money when you are up by X(define yourself) units. Don't keep bankroll bigger, because I am sure you will lose control when losing streak strikes.(This is the biggest problem in gambling).
If you are not following anything above, you I am sure you don't know what you are doing.
Please brother I have almost tesed all Progressions with few thousands of spins, not even 1 system gave positive result. :-\
Regards
This guy knows what he is talking about.
allin,
I agree with you about your statements nr. 2-4. still I think that aprogression could improve the results if you mange to find a bet selection that keeps the downswings within a certain range.
QuoteNegative expectation and you talk about flat betting.
How?
I am all ears!
LS
Well I am just polite and say if they don't have an positive expectation, an edge, then it is a big lie.
Roulette will only give you a negative expectation.
Quotehi lucky,
was your question for allin or for me?
So what is what??
LS
lucky, does that mean that you also think we should forget about using progressions? as english is not my mother tongue I'm not quite sure wether I' ve really understood what you're after.
Hi HansHuckebein.
Let me tell you that no one can turnaround numbers and create a bet selection that will produce a positive expectation so you can flat betting with an edge.
I guess I trying to say and trying to do so with a polite manner, that if you don't have a bias or a dominant ball drop and can make a vb read with good conditions, then you will never find an positive edge so you can flat betting.
Cheers LS
Fluctuation sucks.
QuoteFluctuation sucks.
Yes there is no escape from it.
LS
Quote from: Lucky Strike on May 03, 2009, 11:56:18 AM
Hi HansHuckebein.
Let me tell you that no one can turnaround numbers and create a bet selection that will produce a positive expectation so you can flat betting with an edge.
I guess I trying to say and trying to do so with a polite manner, that if you don't have a bias or a dominant ball drop and can make a vb read with good conditions, then you will never find an positive edge so you can flat betting.
Cheers LS
There could be ESP or numerology :)
# 1 out of the question.
# 2 - # 4 agreed but with personal preferences in mind.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Quote from: hoper35 on May 03, 2009, 01:32:24 PM
There could be ESP or numerology :)
I don't want to offend you so i just say this polite that it is a lie.
LS
Quote from: HansHuckebein on May 02, 2009, 04:29:35 PM
hi guys,
for results that sort of zickzack, which progression would you use? the results if've attached come from flat-betting one unit on the even chances.
thanks already for your oppinions.
:) :) :)
I am no friend of the progressions, but here you will like some advice. I recommend you use the progression of oscar or pluscup, slow progressive game. But with the proviso that after two consecutive losses make the reduction to minimum bet until win. Then when the win comes increase to the number high above.
This idea has been for a long time and nobody makes it, but it is the better progressive, only +1 at a time and lose less on 3 or many losses so the less wins to get back from the inevitable long losing chains.
I hope this makes you better results Mr. HansHuckebein and do not forget to put the graphics so that we can compare the difference please. If it works or if it does not operate = we learn.
Greetings,
WannaWin
Quote from: Allin on May 03, 2009, 08:03:44 AM
There are only 4 rules to win/keep yourself in the game.
1. Flat bets.
2. Shorter Playing sessions
3. Exit point (You need set the Goal before you start session. I.e -40 stop +60 stop).
4. Withdraw money when you are up by X(define yourself) units. Don't keep bankroll bigger, because I am sure you will lose control when losing streak strikes.(This is the biggest problem in gambling).
The advice above is the safest way to play the game. But if you have the bankroll and would like bigger wins. I personal think you will need to use some kind of progression. Below you will find the way I play.
1. I use the Oscar Grind with a bankroll of 200 units per 1% of vig (IE: roulett single 0 has around 2.8% vig bankroll would be 600 units)
2. Short playing sessions (I think this may be the most important item in any gambling you may want to do.)
3. When I hit a 6 unit win I will quit if I fall back to 5. If I get to 11 I will quit when I fall back to 10. I use this stop loss on every 5 increase. Usally I am out at 5 unit. But there are times I will hit runs and it would be a shame to have quit at 5, when it would have given me 20.
4. Once a session is done half the winnings go to the bank account and half go to increase the bankroll.
Hope this helps you decide how your personal style will be
Phishalot
Progression is just a word used to describe a Stake that is broken up into increments of various amounts for various reasons.
It's still only one Stake no matter how you cut it.
Just experiment until you find one you're comfortable with.
w: Won bet
L: Lost bet
- A negative progression relies on the assumption that your bet selection (whatever it is... from numerology to wheel bias) will NOT give you a streak of L's that is long enough to make the progression fail and your bankroll depleted as a result / or the fact that this will only happen at such a rate that, in the long run, you end up in profit.
- A positive progression relies on the assumption that your bet selection will give you "enough" w's streaks in such a way that you will sooner or later reach your session goal and quit in profit. It relies on the assumption that results come in streaks rather than chops, that there are 'good times' (where you up your bets) and 'bad times/dispersions' (where you flat bet or lower your bets).
- Flat betting relies on the assumption that you will sooner or later have more w's than L's (in the case of even chance bets), or in other words, that during your session you will sooner or later be in enough profit to reach your win goal (or stop loss, though in this case, you have to be sure that, in the long run, your won sessions will recover for your lost ones and you'll still be in profit).
Long dispersions are the enemy of negative progressions.
Long chops and not enough streaks are the enemy of positive progressions.
Negative hit rates are the enemy of flat betting.
CONCLUSIONS:
- It all depends on the bet selection.
- Your bet selection must be good enough to deal with the sort of fluctuations that kill your chosen bet/money management plan (example: If you chose flat betting, then your bet selection must have a positive hit rate. If you chose negative progression, then your bet selection must never generate too long bad streaks/dispersions. etc).
- Your bet selection must be fully tested, and your MM plan/progression must be based on your bet selection's raw test results.
A Note Regarding the House Edge: In my humble opinion, the house edge is not the main reason why mechanical betting systems fail, it is fluctuations. Brutal, unexpected fluctuations generated by randomness.
The casinos don't really need that -2.7% to make money from system/progression players. The house edge is just there to "make sure" no one gets so lucky in such a way that makes them lose money in the long run, that's it. Your initial worry should be beating randomness and not the house edge.
Those are my own personal conclusions though, hope this helps you see things more clearly. :)
All the best,
Marven
Right on the money Marven
Quote from: wannawinI recommend you use the progression of oscar or pluscup
I like this kind of progression, but the scientifically proven optimum is Kelly betting (a % of your bank proportional to your edge). Or you could just bet a small % of your current bank, say 5%, which is good too. The advantage of these % of bank progressions is that they protect your bank in the downswings and maximize the upswings, and also don't depend on wins bunching together like most +ve progressions.
Totally agree with you Tangram.