Sam's take on the 4Selecta so Bliss can write a program........

[TwoCatSam]

Edit

See final post........

[bjb007]

Sam

The first thing that confused me about this system
was the use of the terms "LG", "MG" and "HG".

It implies "Low", "Middle" and "High" which isn't so.

These three names indicate what would elsewhere be
called "Sectors", a randomly (?) chosen set of numbers
which are, in fact, streets.

[bliss]

Mr Chips, why the negativity? maybe you didn't see my post in the GUT tracker thread saying I would be happy to program the system...

there is a degree of human intervention when to exit a session.

Ok, I can deal with that when it arises, but I can at least create a "tracker" program, if not a full-blown simulation. That at least, would be useful, don't you agree?

Also, I think others (who may not have grasped your system the first time around) will benefit from Sam's explanations. By all accounts this a system which show promise, so why not make it easier for others to see for themselves?

@ Sam, thanks for taking the time to do this, I'm with you 100% so far! [smiley=vrolijk_26.gif]

[bliss]

"I think what would be useful for those of us that are testing 4Selecta is to analyse the sessions. What I mean by that is look at our decisions to exit a session and work out if they were correct most of the time."

Mr Chips, I heartily agree. And this strengthens the case for creating a program to at least partially automate the system - take out some of the "grunt" work (not to mention the errors which inevitably arise in manual tracking). The less time you need to spend on this, the more time available for analysis and tweaking. I can build some variable parameters into the tracker which might help.
 

[bliss]

Sam, as I understand it,  the labels LG, MG, and HG refer not only to numbers:

The Lower Group (LG)
-----------------
1, 2, 3
10,11,12
19,20,21
28,29,30

The Middle Group (MG)
-----------------
4, 5, 6
13,14,15
22,23,24
31,32,33

The Higher Group (HG)
-----------------
7, 8, 9
16,17,18
25,26,27
34,35,36

but also to groups and sections. For example, suppose the following numbers arise:

3 - LG
24-MG
29-LG

Each number is labeled with its corresponding group, and in the above example there are 2 groups, with the 3 numbers constituting a section. However, this section is itself defined as "LG" (because 2 of the groups are the same, and these are LG).

So using any of the labels "LG", "MG", or "HG" could actually mean 3 different things:

*A number corresponding to the group to which it belongs
*The group itself
*The section (defined by the particular combination of LG, MG, HG in at least 3 successive numbers)

IMHO the labels "LG", "MG" and "HG" are heavily overworked and potentially the source of much confusion. Personally I would keep these labels exclusively for the table headings and perhaps use lowercase "l", "m" and "h" to denote the groups/numbers.

[ChickenDinner]

So using any of the labels "LG", "MG", or "HG" could actually mean 3 different things:

*A number corresponding to the group to which it belongs
*The group itself
*The section (defined by the particular combination of LG, MG, HG in at least 3 successive numbers)

IMHO the labels "LG", "MG" and "HG" are heavily overworked and potentially the source of much confusion. Personally I would keep these labels exclusively for the table headings and perhaps use lowercase "l", "m" and "h" to denote the groups/numbers.

Brilliant observation! I don't want to mess up this thread, so I'll leave you guys to it.

[bliss]

I've just seen Mr Chips' post in the "GUT tracker" thread:

I have just come across this thread and I do not think it is a good idea to program 4Selecta. There are many occasions when HUMAN intervention is necessary to get the maximum profit from the system and equally important to minimise losses.

Don't take this the wrong way, but far too many people are looking for easy solutions and they think a computer program will save them a lot of work testing a system, which may be so if it's simple, but then if it's simple it's doomed to fail.

Testing a system which lets say "shows some promise" by hand enables the tester to really understand the system and become proficient in using it especially if they are thinking of using it for real in a casino.

If there was an easy way to test 4Selecta do you think I would be working my 'butt' off( I do like that American expression lol) and by the end of the test I will have tested over 300 sessions!

I copied it here because I'd like to respond, and anyway the subject is off-topic for "GUT tracker".

I tend to agree with CD's response:

I fully understand what you're saying about testers understanding how it works and the human element. However, my thinking was that program that groups the numbers, shows which group is leading and marks which group is active (for when if 2 or more groups are level) would allow for less human error, but still require that all important human intervention element when it comes to deciding when to bet and how long to continue betting.

Mr Chips, my intention is not merely to slap some code together and declare the system a dud if it fails the billion spin test. I know from experience that the "human factor" often makes the difference between winning and losing. However I don't see how you can have any objections to a program which automates the purely mechanical elements of the system.

I'm quite happy to send you the program for "approval" before I upload it, if that makes you feel any better.

I agree with your point about understanding and use in real casinos, but couldn't the program also be of use to those who use onlines?
Another advantage being that such a program would verify that the system has been understood and is being used correctly.

I would argue that any decision made by a human being can be implemented on a computer, that's what "expert systems" do. nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expert_system

[JHM]

I don't know how good Bliss is in programming. If he's very good, we don't have to look further. If Bliss can't program it. Maybe we can do a fundraiser on the board. Mr.Chips had tested his system for two years over more than 1 million spins right? And is is profitable. I mean, everybody is looking for what Mr. Chips designed right?

Jur

[TwoCatSam]

People......

I have made a mistake and I am going to correct it as best I know how.

As I stated previously, I feel if anyone ever works with a programmer, it should be Mr. Chips.  Said that on the GUT thread before this one started.

I felt that as long as I did not reword his program, but merely put it in my words, I was doing nothing wrong.  But his saying he is "not keen" on this idea really tells me I stepped over a line.

I've given this much thought and I feel I should bow out except as a student and tester.

My apologies to all. 

Sam

[gizmotron]

nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_bug

I'm not sure of the implications of this, if it is meant to infer something. I've seen Bliss's programming methods and they appear to be bomb proof. What's often difficult is in understanding what the client means in their descriptions and what they wanted in the end. Now as a tech writer I can tell you that communication between client, programmer, and tech writers have been the buggiest parts of the whole procedure more often than not. Enjoyment of doing something decreases if communication breaks down.

Now if you add to that scientific curiosity and discovery then you run the risk of attempting to slay sacred cows and long held beliefs. If it's just a verification of an attempt to mimic human selection options then and only then can there be expected a long process to reach consensus. Please be patient with this process. It's OK to get it wrong all away along the way. If we get to that end then the reward for success is much more appreciated. Hang in there Bliss.

[TwoCatSam]

OK.......

Once you have memorized the numbers and what Group they fall into, it is pretty fast and easy.

Here is my brain at work:

1
5........low group/med group. what do we need look at chart need low look at avaiable numbers bet low numbers did we win
3.....we won mark up the LG from 4 to5 five  mark the 3 so we know to bet it twice next time

next spin....comon whell.


I am convinced the mechanics of this system are sound.  What the player needs to learn is to look at the Chart, look at the Available numbers and decide how the wind is blowing.  Sometimes I just know when to look for the exit.  Other times I don't know at all.  But after 5,000 spins I should know something.

Sam

[ChickenDinner]

If anyone needs to apologise here, it's me.

I prompted this idea in the first place; I convinced Sam it was a good idea, and I encouraged Bliss to get involved.

Also, I was the one who should have checked with Mr Chips before suggesting it.

So sorry to Mr Chips, Sam, Bliss and everyone involved.

I am still convinced software would very useful though, as Bliss puts it, it would take out some of the "grunt" work, and allow us to concentrate toward getting the best out of the system.

Looking at this thread, I'm not quite sure if this software idea has been completely scrapped or not, but it seems the only decent thing to do here is to not go against Mr Chips' wishes, even if we don't agree with his reasoning.

CD

[bliss]

Giz, thanks for the vote of confidence. IMHO Mr Chips' inference has more to do with his general distrust of "maths people" and associated technology than his lack of confidence in my programming ability in particular. He appears to be closed-minded about the applicability of such technologies to roulette systems development and analysis, much as I'm sure he thinks all "maths people" are similarly closed-minded with regard to such systems.

What's often difficult is in understanding what the client means in their descriptions and what they wanted in the end. Now as a tech writer I can tell you that communication between client, programmer, and tech writers have been the buggiest parts of the whole procedure more often than not. Enjoyment of doing something decreases if communication breaks down.

This is so true, and in fact this very thing happened when Mr Chips was trying to teach me his EC system in preparation for his book. (if you think 4Selecta is tough to understand...  )  I'm afraid it was too much for me, and I dissolved the "partnership".  I'm not blaming Mr Chips, it's very difficult to communicate complex and difficult concepts and he did his best. Perhaps I should have persevered, but I guess I lacked the motivation to learn which may have been present in someone who had not (a) done so many computer simulations (all with negative results) and (b) "believed" the math. To that extent he is right about the math mob being closed minded. 
However, it's one thing to not actively research "statistical" systems, and quite another to deny statistically significant results when and if they arise - and I hope I would never be guilty of doing that (as Mr Chips implies all maths people would).

Anyway, I'm a little puzzled as to why Mr Chips is plainly hostile to the suggestion that 4Selecta be tested in any way other than the "true" way, ie; manually. He did, after all, decide to put the system in the public domain, and partly for the reason that  he wanted "to prove to the Maths fraternity that a well structured roulette system can produce profits month on month in perpetuity."
(see: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/gambling-and-roulette-related/maths-theory-and-creating-profitable-roulette-systems/)

Unless of course, his hostility has more to do with the fact of my involvement, in which case, nothing I say will make any difference.

p.s. Giz -

as a tech writer...

Don't tell me you're one of those jokers who write assembly instructions for flat-pack furniture from Ikea   

[gizmotron]

p.s. Giz -

as a tech writer...
Don't tell me you're one of those jokers who write assembly instructions for flat-pack furniture from Ikea

Actually I went out and got my certification in tech writing and wrote several how to use software manuals. I was very lucky because the meat and potatoes of the training was in describing how to use software that none of us in the classes had ever seen before. We also tested as teams and as indaviduals later for exams.

I added a control group to my "avoiding the zeros sim" tests. That way the same spins are tested for conditional and non-conditional betting.

You might find this interesting when facing challenges when clients want a human selection process in the software. It's made me think in how to go about adding logical waiting, bet selection, bet amount changes, pattern recognition, and patterns within patterns global speculating. It turns out that there are already inroads to study regarding all these hair brained ideas of mine.

nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward-backward_algorithm

"In computer science, the forward-backward algorithm, a dynamic programming algorithm for computing the probability of a particular observation sequence, given the parameters of the model, operates in the context of hidden Markov models."

"The algorithm comprises three steps:

1.) computing forward probabilities
2.) computing backward probabilities
3.) computing smoothed values "

"The forward and backward steps are often called "forward message pass" and "backward message pass". The wording originates from the way the algorithm processes the given observation sequence. First the algorithm moves forward starting with the first observation in the sequence and going to the last, and then returning back to the first. At each single observation in the sequence probabilities to be used for calculations at the next observation are computed. During the backward pass the algorithm simultaneously performs the smoothing step. This step allows the algorithm to take into account any past observations of output for computing more accurate results."

nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidden_Markov_model

"A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov process with unknown parameters, and the challenge is to determine the hidden parameters from the observable parameters. The extracted model parameters can then be used to perform further analysis, for example for pattern recognition applications."

[TwoCatSam]

ernesto

I took down your post.  I will take down any post wherein someone post a link to a program connected to the 4Selecta. 

Dang, people, let's not run off another person like we did Gamlet!

Let's respect the man's wishes!! 

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

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