I posted this question at GG

[ryan08]

This is in regards to the DUE theory (which I like alot). I've been reading a roulette article and thought this was interesting >>> "If nothing is ever "due," how can probability work?" I think its a GREAT point/question!!!!! Any comments?  Ken

The basic answer is that the phrase 'nothing is ever due' is false. Due is a consequence of probability. For example, if you toss a coin and it lands on heads twice probability dictates that tails is now 'due' to hit, BUT alot of people now think because it is 'due' it increases the probability that the coin will land on tails. This is where people go wrong, people use the word 'due' in the wrong context, It is merely a word to describe what should happen if probability dictates the next toss, which of course it cannot.

Think of it like this. You are waiting for a bus, on the bus stop it says the bus will arrive at 12pm (this represents probability). Now it gets to 12pm and the bus hasnt arrived yet, from this point the bus is 'due' to arrive at anytime. Most people think the longer the bus has been 'due' the more likely it is to arrive in the next minute or so. NO this is not true though because whos to say the bus hasnt broken down or it is not stuck in a traffic jam. This goes to show that the time the bus was 'supposed' to arrive has no bearing on when it actually will, the same goes when i number is 'due' to hit, that information has no bearing on when it actually will.

[Mr Chips]

ryan,
 
The bus analogy I would say is flawed, because they could well decide to discontinue the service altogether on the very day
a bus was due, but a number will always eventually come in.
 
What is interesting is trying to figure out when say the last number is going to come in. For a time I looked into this in relation
to the last sleeper belonging to various sets. For example, if the sleeper was #4 it would belong to the Final set 4,14,24,34, also
digit sum 4,13,22,31, and clock set 4,12,26,28.
 
This won't of course tell you exactly when #4 will come in, but on many occasions those other sets will dramatically change,
either they will be a sleeper set or certain numbers in the sets will be very active. It is easy to dismiss this as just a coincidence,
but I have seen it so many times and have actually profited from it.
 
Mr Chips

[ryan08]

ryan,
 
The bus analogy I would say is flawed, because they could well decide to discontinue the service altogether on the very day
a bus was due, but a number will always eventually come in.
 
What is interesting is trying to figure out when say the last number is going to come in. For a time I looked into this in relation
to the last sleeper belonging to various sets. For example, if the sleeper was #4 it would belong to the Final set 4,14,24,34, also
digit sum 4,13,22,31, and clock set 4,12,26,28.
 
This won't of course tell you exactly when #4 will come in, but on many occasions those other sets will dramatically change,
either they will be a sleeper set or certain numbers in the sets will be very active. It is easy to dismiss this as just a coincidence,
but I have seen it so many times and have actually profited from it.
 
Mr Chips

you read too much into the bus analogy but even so whos to say your ever going to see the number 36 on the wheel ever again when your playing, that will almost never happen but it could, the point is nothing is a sure thing, and just because it is overdue doesnt mean its anymore likely to show up, i thought the bus thing would make it easier to understand but i guess it does not.

and as regards to the sleeping #4, when you talk of sets being active, is that not just playing hot numbers?

[Mr Chips]

ryan,
 
We of course don't know when the last number is going to come in and as you say we may never see the number 36 come
in while we are playing.
 
Numbers are supposed to be independent of each other so the fact that 36 is a sleeper shouldn't in any way affect the sets
that 36 belongs to and yet I have seen and taken advantage of on a number of occasions and still do when the sets have
been very active. Just a coincidence? What do you call an accumulation of  coincidences, a profitable trend?
 
Mr Chips
 

[ryan08]

forget all this set business, its completely useless, and all your decribing when saying you have took advantage of these sets being active is your just playing hot groups of numbers. so its not a profitable trend, a series of coincidences just plain and simple hot numbers, thats it.

[Mr Chips]

forget all this set business, its completely useless, and all your decribing when saying you have took advantage of these sets being active is your just playing hot groups of numbers. so its not a profitable trend, a series of coincidences just plain and simple hot numbers, thats it.

I have used it successfully for a number of years so it can't be just a coincidence.
 
When I am at the roulette table now I don't start out to exploit sets, but if
the opportunity arises especially, if someone at the table is betting on sleepers
then I look on it, as a potential profitable opportunity.
 
Don't dismiss it because you don't understand it.
 
Mr Chips

[ryan08]

omg! you were just decribing playing hot numbers thats all, and I didnt say it was coincidence so why are you suggesting I did?

if someone at the table is betting on sleepers
then I look on it, as a potential profitable opportunity.

why would it matter what other people are doing?

Don't dismiss it because you don't understand it.

its not I dont understand it, I dont understand you. and I know enough about roulette to see what a system is at the roots (minus the dressing up) just hot numbers.

[Mr Chips]

why would it matter what other people are doing

It confirms you don't understand it!
 

I know enough about roulette to see what a system is at the roots (minus the dressing up) just hot numbers

I said earlier that I don't set out to exploit sets, it's just a betting opportunity and therefore it is not a system.
 
There are a number of opportunities in roulette, perhaps your not aware of this fact.
 
Mr Chips

[ryan08]

whatever you say mr knowitall, but obviously an opportunity has to meet certain criteria or rules so in that sense it is a system whether you like it or not, also i dont need to understand the complexities of your system to know the what the simple core of it is trying to target, and i am alot more aware about the game of roulette than you are because i prefer not to waste my time on the things you do as i know they either dont work or dont produce much profit for the time and effort required.

[Mr Chips]

Whatever you say mr knowitall

I'll take that as a compliment 
 
Mr Chips
 

[Mr Chips]

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