TwoCat Tests the G.U.T Mach II Movies Mandatory. New Rules.

[TwoCatSam]

OK.......

novo says to bet these crossings:

0vs1
1vs2
0vs>1
0vs2
1vs>1
1vs2

winkel says to quit when you are +39. 

nova never jumps back.

winkel says he always jumps back after three loses.

mad says to stay for 50 spins.

winnkel, mad and novo.......

Help me write the beginner's rules.

I'll toss another $200 in the kitty and give it a try.

Sam

[Novobetor]

Sam,

I don't agree that you use real money on this testing. If you use real money you'll get frustrated when you hit some big drawdown.
Remember that in winkel's own GUT test thread, Lohnro run a simulation test of 2500 sessions and the results are climbing. The test was only done on 0vs1 and 1vs>1.

Look at this




Eventhough the bankroll is growing, notice that there's a big drawdown in between session 1400 and 2100 before it reached a new higher bankroll. If you play for real money and when emotion is involved you'll never get pass that.

[TwoCatSam]

novo

I appreciate your concerns.  At some point in time I have to get off the bench and into the game.  This is it.  Frankly, I do not get frustrated bet .50 and loosing $200. 

I get frustrated because the rules keep changing and then I learn there are no rules!

Now---will you, mad and winkel help me establish a set of rules we can agree on? 

Sam

[Novobetor]

Ok,

From what I've read so far, winkels GUT test has the best results. I say we emulate his rules and see for oursleves if we could get the results as good as his.

He said he bet these crossings:
0vs1
1vs2
0vs>1
0vs2
1vs>1
1vs2

Every sessions is a new 50 spins. No jump

Use his stop rules
17-13 numbers rebet after loss = total bets 2
12-10 numbers rebet after loss 2 times = total bets 3
9-8 numbers rebet after loss 3 times = total bets 4

Well, i maybe missing some other rules but these are all I can remember...


cheers

[madupz4]

OK.......

novo says to bet these crossings:

0vs1
1vs2
0vs>1
0vs2
1vs>1
1vs2

winkel says to quit when you are +39. 

nova never jumps back.

winkel says he always jumps back after three loses.

mad says to stay for 50 spins.

winnkel, mad and novo.......

Help me write the beginner's rules.

I'll toss another $200 in the kitty and give it a try.

Sam

Despite what He "says" like I said, I'm not listening to what he says, i'm copying what he DID, trying to duplicate his results. 
His results being:

2117 / 50 days =  42.34 units per day
42.34 / 3 sessions = 14.11 units per session

-That means do NOT quit at +39, play to spin 50 regardless of win or lose, PERIOD.
-Never jump back, play to spin 50 PERIOD.  For my new testing after 50 spins, I will start a new 50 spins after a win or loss with no jump back EVER!
-After 3 losses again do not jump back, play to spin 50!
-Play all above crossings but wait for the 0,1, and >1 to dominate and cross first, then play all other crossings.  If there is more than one crossing, the 0,1, and >1 get the preference.

Look at the clinical GUT tests, these are the actions that were performed.  These are the "rules" for his testing.  Forget the "hints, the pointers and the suggestions."  We are trying to duplicate his success, so we should follow these exact rules and nothing else.

[JHM]

novo

I appreciate your concerns.  At some point in time I have to get off the bench and into the game.  This is it.  Frankly, I do not get frustrated bet .50 and loosing $200. 

I get frustrated because the rules keep changing and then I learn there are no rules!

Now---will you, mad and winkel help me establish a set of rules we can agree on? 

Sam

Sam,

Why don't you stick to your own rules? If that works, then you're doing fine?

[Herb]

Guys,

You're not doing anything wrong in your simulations.  KonFuSed already tested this one over 1 million trials and showed that it doesn't work.

[JHM]

Than why are we all winning in our simulation / testing Herb? Is everybody on a winning streak?

[madupz4]

Guys,

You're not doing anything wrong in your simulations.  KonFuSed already tested this one over 1 million trials and showed that it doesn't work.

1 Million trials?  Obviously he didn't do this by himself?  He did it with the help of some computer running simulations.  That is flawed!  No computer can test as efficiently and accurately as a human when you have to make decisions on certain bets, something his computer trials cannot do.

Those 1 Million trials, you can throw them in the trash b/c they are garbage!

Never trust computer simulations.

The GUT testing results speak for themselves.  A steady increase using flat betting, NO progresson.  A steady incline towards the top.  You know it will not crash b/c there is NO progression, just steady, consistent, uphill profits.

[TwoCatSam]

From novo

0vs1
1vs2
0vs>1
0vs2
1vs>1
1vs2

Every sessions is a new 50 spins. No jump

Now from mad

-That means do NOT quit at +39, play to spin 50 regardless of win or lose, PERIOD.
-Never jump back, play to spin 50 PERIOD.  For my new testing after 50 spins, I will start a new 50 spins after a win or loss with no jump back EVER!
-After 3 losses again do not jump back, play to spin 50!
-Play all above crossings but wait for the 0,1, and >1 to dominate and cross first, then play all other crossings.  If there is more than one crossing, the 0,1, and >1 get the preference.

OK  Could we boil it down to this:?

0vs1
0vs>1
0vs2
1vs>1
1vs2

Play 50 spins win or lose.  Only play after the 0 v >0 crossing (19/18). 

Play the above crossings and in case of a tie, give preference to the one with the greatest numbers to be bet.

Never jump back.

Will novo and mad sign off on these rules in red?  Note:  If I lose money, let me worry about that.  This is my fun and golfers spend a lot more!

Thanks and sorry I tried your patience!

Sam

[madupz4]

From novo

0vs1
1vs2
0vs>1
0vs2
1vs>1
1vs2

Every sessions is a new 50 spins. No jump

Now from mad

-That means do NOT quit at +39, play to spin 50 regardless of win or lose, PERIOD.
-Never jump back, play to spin 50 PERIOD.  For my new testing after 50 spins, I will start a new 50 spins after a win or loss with no jump back EVER!
-After 3 losses again do not jump back, play to spin 50!
-Play all above crossings but wait for the 0,1, and >1 to dominate and cross first, then play all other crossings.  If there is more than one crossing, the 0,1, and >1 get the preference.

My post is the exact same as his, only diff is YES Winkel is betting on all of those crossings BUT if you look at his testing, he is ONLY doing it AFTER the 0,1, and >1 have dominated and have crossed first.  So just copy the testing.  Do the same thing as the testing and see what happens.

[Herb]

My point is this:  This system only works if you're curve fitting the results.  In other words, changing how you would have bet after the spin has already happened. 
If you use a rigid set of rules, and stick to these rules, then the system can't work.

-Herb

[TwoCatSam]

mad

What does this mean?  "AFTER the 0,1, and >1 have dominated"

Are you saying only bet after the 0 v >0?  (19/18)  What does the >1 have to do with it.  Are we waiting for 0 v >1 to happen?  That's not what I see.

KFS has proven you can't pin winkel down to a single statement.  Now, I'm trying to see if I can wade through the obfuscation and see if Herb, bj and KFS are all right and we have been taken for one whale of a ride!  

So, if I get some rules, I'll play the thing, film the beast and let's see what happens.

You realize I want this to win?  I want to win money, not prove someone wrong!!

I'm just trying to do is so that it is "clinical" in a true sense of the word!

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

Herb

I call that ex post facto betting.  Looking to see what happened and then saying you would have bet that way.  I'm wanting to prove you wrong and winkel right.  If I can't, I can't!

If you're right, you're right.  I suspect you are!

You know what my problem is Herb?  I want to believe winkel. 

Sam

[Herb]

I can see the rules bending here and there.  Unfortunately, that's the kiss of death when testing these systems.  Write down the rules ahead of time to avoid the curve fitting problems.

It's probably best if I stay out of this thread and the 4selectra for now.  My critism isn't received very well. 

-Herb

[Herb]

-