...with trying to create a completely mechanical system for roulette?
Is it because we simply don't trust our subjective judgement, hence removing any personal blame when things go awry? Or is it because a mechanical product can be packaged relatively easy for sale, or is it because "they" all say it can't be done?
I am interested to hear what the attraction is from anyone who has not given up on mechanical systems.
Perhaps it could be to do with the fact that you could play at any table in any casino and win money, also if you could win consistantly a reasonable amount you would have a recession proof job. Plus if you could find a mechanical system you would have the satisfaction of having beaten random, which is a challange in itself.
hi bombus
it is nothing wrong with a mechanical system
it is as good as it get
there is so many empty words about educate guess work
claims that you never can show how accurate they are
educated guess work is not more precise then a mechanical system
because fluctuation find it ways around all things you can think of
there is no escape
I can use random against random with one static rule and get the same results or as good as any educated guess or mechanical system
I guess it does not matter what you do because in the long term the timeline of distribution will be the same
an edge is not some-thing that comes by it self
you need a real momentum to develop and real advantage
like a dominant drop zone that can be a part of that
but you cant turnaround numbers or use clustering and think it will create an edge
it does not exist
LS
I also want to add this...
This is why I from now on put Dealer Signature in the same category as any mechanical system as long there is no real physics involved.
The common aspect is that they use distance and cross over patterns.
LS
Quotea mechanical product can be packaged relatively easy for sale
Good point, I'm sure that has a lot to do with it. :P
@ LS,
I suppose it depends on how you define "mechanical". To me, it means a rigid bet selection process which doesn't deviate or take into account what's happening on the table
over multiple data streams. Anything like that is bound to fail. If you have multiple data streams and pay close attention to the relationships between them, you will begin to see that there are indicators which "point" to certain bets. I know this seems like more "empty words", but it's the nature of the strategy that you can't simply give a recipe like: do A, then B after X, Y, Z.
The closest thing to it I've seen on the forum is the Lw method, and other posters like Spike and Gizmotron have alluded to it.
If you're set on using advantage methods, great! hope it all works out for you. I personally believe that the "advantage" in these so-called advantage methods is more psychological than actual. What's the difference between a "real" edge and an illusory one, if you are making a profit? ???
Quotein these so-called advantage methods is more psychological than actual
Tangram thanks for a nice reply and I understand what you are getting at.
But you are wrong or just don't have the knowledge regarding a dominant drop point.
Cheers LS
QuoteBut you are wrong or just don't have the knowledge regarding a dominant drop point.
I'm no expert on VB, but I know you need some kind of bias to make it work. How easy is it to find the bias that's necessary? maybe in some parts of the world it's not too difficult, but I've tried and found it more trouble than it's worth (and I know how to do the tests to determine real bias).
Well this is going no where when you don't have the knowlede to talk about it.
Sorry don't want to offend you.
Cheers LS
Quote from: bombus on May 30, 2009, 02:16:57 AM
I am interested to hear what the attraction is from anyone who has not given up on mechanical systems.
This thread has left the topic and turned into a bashing of "educated guessing" by a VB advocate. Now that is an example of mechanical thinking right there.
I gave up on mechanical systems because not one of them works at a real casino, given the limits and all. If one ever does it will win a Nobel prize. The media should be notified too. It would be a big deal. The inventor should go on the TV talk show circuit.
QuoteI gave up on mechanical systems because not one of them works at a real casino
Educated guess is mechanical.
You can't guess if it is not based upon some thing.
The only way to be non mechanical is to become a blind man ho puts chips on the carpet and don't know where they went.
Every one in this forum is playing a mechanical system or method.
You can't escape from that and argue against it.
It is to put lies all over the place.
LS
Quote from: Lucky Strike on May 30, 2009, 07:47:41 AM
Educated guess is mechanical.
You can't guess if it is not based upon some thing.
The only way to be non mechanical is to become a blind man ho puts chips on the carpet and don't know where they went.
Every one in this forum is playing a mechanical system or method.
You can't escape from that and argue against it.
It is to put lies all over the place.
LS
Look, perhaps the generalized calling anyone a lier is not personal, but getting the definition of mechanical wrong, in this case, is too wide in scope. One might say all of patterns recognition and clustering analysis is mechanical. All situational awareness is mechanical. In fact that must include card counting in Black Jack too. Card counters know when the mechanical properties of card counting works and when it does not. They are apt to react to a difficult session because of that. That ability to react at some point can be argued that it is not in the classification of mechanical.
I could write a computer sim that beats roulette, based on my principles of educated guessing. It would be mechanical. I would be widely known for it. It would be so well known that I would not be able to use the method anymore.
So now mechanical applies to educated guessing. So it must be a worse than before reality. I consider it a mistake to include it. It's like saying 100 years ago at Kitty Hawk, NC was the beginning of space travel.
I made my point that is all for me.
You can have any opinion about any-thing and think it is correct or wrong.
I can prove my point you can't.
You can not show that a decision does not follow a rule based upon some-thing.
Then it becomes random.
But i am all ears and could change my mind.
But then it has to be some-thing else then empty words.
LS
The only way I'm going to reveal my method is if that's possible with my dieing last words. In fact, I'm going to do just that. I'll write it all down and have it released after I die. It will end just about all the table games. It's so simple anyone can learn it in just a few days. It will have a long term effect on everything but Poker. People will become aware. They will teach it in elementary schools.
So you will have to live with the fact that you can prove your point of view and I won't. It's not an issue of can't. One thing though. I get to be the one that drops the bomb on all your dreams. I mean all you people that haven't arrived yet. When it's too late it will be too late. I owe it to myself to wreck the train. I'll do it because you can't take it with you. I'll do it because I want the respect thirty years of searching is owed to me. It's my Mt Everest. I want the first accent claim. It's completely human to go out and get it too.
The first person that gets it is Victor. I just love the idea that in his hands will be the hot potato. I will give him one year to make his millions and then it will go out to the whole world on the internet as a free book. It will bring fame to him too. This website will be a study in belief systems and internet life experiences.
No matter what is believed to be the truth, the bomb will be dropped. I owe that much to myself.
Yes as you all can see there is claims no more or less.
I would only repeat what i already wrote so it ends for me here.
LS
Mechanical systems IMO are easy to remember. You can write it down on paper or publish it in a book. But it is the gut instinct I believe that keeps you from losing lots of money in the long run (If you notice soon enough the mechanical way isn't working).
QuoteBut it is the instinct I believe that keeps you from losing lots of money.
Okay tell us more about it and how it is done.
Random pick or is it mechanical.
I would like to know.
LS
Quote from: Lucky Strike on May 30, 2009, 08:40:59 AM
Yes as you all can see there is claims no more or less.
I would only repeat what I already wrote so it ends for me here.
LS
Fine. I have made my choice to be an idiot until I'm not one. After that you will be just one of those that was right until your were proven wrong. This is your time. Enjoy it. Claims are worthless, except that there are rocks on the tracks and the train is headed for the gorge, just around the bend. :diablo: :skull:
Quote from: Lucky Strike on May 30, 2009, 08:47:37 AM
Okay tell us more about it and how it is done.
Random pick or is it mechanical.
I would like to know.
LS
It's simple. Visual Ballistics are mechanical processes. Does that explain it well?
QuoteI have made my choice to be an idiot until I'm not one.
You are not idiot.
I hope you not are one.
I see it like this.
You have your way to see things and have your opinions.
I have the same as you and we just don't agree.
I can show how, where and why.
You can not do that can you?
It easy you just show us how some-thing is a decision with out being a rule and a part of some-thing mechanical.
That is for me a random pick what is it for you?
Educated guess?
LS
It's the psychology of gamblers. Most people deny the maths of the game and think it can be overcome with a simple procedure. Of course, mechanical systems don't fail beacuse of the casino edge, but because, being invariable by nature, they are not equipped to counteract fluctuations. Most rely utterly on single events and use true progressions, which only cast the illusion that all will be OK in the long run. When one system fails, the player might believe that they have noticed something unique during testing that needs further analysis. Eventually they get bogged down in a myriad ideas, none of which will ever work or cannot be executed because of impracticalities. It's not that people willingly persist, they are trapped.
Quote from: Lucky Strike on May 30, 2009, 08:55:51 AM
You are not idiot.
I hope you not are one.
I see it like this.
You have your way to see things and have your opinions.
I have the same as you and we just don't agree.
I can show how, where and why.
You can not do that can you?
It easy you just show us how some-thing is a decision with out being a rule and a part of some-thing mechanical.
That is for me a random pick what is it for you?
Educated guess?
LS
Before the next spin all you have is the guess. Nobody knows what will happen. After the spin you use a process to discern what sector the ball will most likely land in. I have the bet selection, based on a hunch, and I also have session difficulty, after the fact. My method might have something to do with basic common sense. I raise my bets when I'm doing good and I play the lowest level bets when I'm not. Now that's not my secret method but it sure is good thinking. In fact you should be using it based on how well you are guessing where the ball will land.
@ Lucky Strike
You think the term mechanical system encompasses a broad spectrum of bet selection processes including organic, inorganic, and physical. I can see where you're coming from here as eventually it must be a trigger of some sort that commences an attack, and trigger of some sort that ends it. There may even be triggers that change an attack mid stream, including raising and lowering the stake. These triggers can be thoroughly rigid, or as vague and ambiguous as the player can manage, but after the long haul, they will all slot into regular little mechanical boxes, they will all be reactive to little inbuilt switches within the player's game.
Quote from: Tangram on May 30, 2009, 06:18:53 AM
I suppose it depends on how you define "mechanical". To me, it means a rigid bet selection process which doesn't deviate or take into account what's happening on the table over multiple data streams.
Why couldn't a mechanical system operate over multiple data streams, and have deviation factors that react to what's happening on the table?
QuoteWhat's the difference between a "real" edge and an illusory one, if you are making a profit? ???
Yes Tangram good point, I say no difference at all.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 30, 2009, 08:37:37 AM
The only way I'm going to reveal my method is if that's possible with my dieing last words. In fact, I'm going to do just that. I'll write it all down and have it released after I die. It will end just about all the table games. It's so simple anyone can learn it in just a few days. It will have a long term effect on everything but Poker. People will become aware. They will teach it in elementary schools.
So you will have to live with the fact that you can prove your point of view and I won't. It's not an issue of can't. One thing though. I get to be the one that drops the bomb on all your dreams. I mean all you people that haven't arrived yet. When it's too late it will be too late. I owe it to myself to wreck the train. I'll do it because you can't take it with you. I'll do it because I want the respect thirty years of searching is owed to me. It's my Mt Everest. I want the first accent claim. It's completely human to go out and get it too.
The first person that gets it is Victor. I just love the idea that in his hands will be the hot potato. I will give him one year to make his millions and then it will go out to the whole world on the internet as a free book. It will bring fame to him too. This website will be a study in belief systems and internet life experiences.
No matter what is believed to be the truth, the bomb will be dropped. I owe that much to myself.
Is this the ranting of a lunatic? Shades of winwithmath /dyksexlic here...
Gizmotron, nobody in my world wants you to reveal your method, so what are you going on about?
And what is the use of any post humus glory?
And once you're dead, how do you intend to appreciate any respect you deserved for so many years of hard work?
And what kind of conceited, self absorbed person would want to wreck the train once they have alighted?
...I can beat every game...I want respect... you all owe me...wrecking trains...dropping bombs...
Sorry, you need help mate.
Quote from: bombus on May 30, 2009, 09:14:05 PM
Is this the ranting of a lunatic? Shades of winwithmath /dyksexlic here...
Gizmotron, nobody in my world wants you to reveal your method, so what are you going on about?
And what is the use of any post humus glory?
And once you're dead, how do you intend to appreciate any respect you deserved for so many years of hard work?
And what kind of conceited, self absorbed person would want to wreck the train once they have alighted?
...I can beat every game...I want respect... you all owe me...wrecking trains...dropping bombs...
Sorry, you need help mate.
For what it's worth, there is a quality to any man that can follow a thread. You appear to lack that as well as to win at roulette too. Lucky Strike accused me of not being able or capable of proving it. I thought it appropriate to accommodate him. I really love giving myself something after I'm gone. They say you can't take it with you when your gone. Well I can. It will be a great story. You will get to say that you were there and that you knew me.
LOL - bombus does not want me to reveal my method. Too bad. I'm going to do it anyway, and for all the skeptics that harassed me and disrupted my attempts to share it over the past few years too. After all, this is the best Roulette website in the entire world isn't it? Everyone will really enjoy getting their hands on a working method. Don't you think?
I'll write everything down and publish it encrypted. If you break the encryption then you will know before I pass away. All you will need is the secret phrase. I just have to figure out how to give up that secret phrase after I'm gone.
LOL
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 31, 2009, 12:19:10 AM
For what it's worth, there is a quality to any man that can follow a thread. You appear to lack that as well as to win at roulette too. Lucky Strike accused me of not being able or capable of proving it. I thought it appropriate to accommodate him. I really love giving myself something after I'm gone. They say you can't take it with you when your gone. Well I can. It will be a great story. You will get to say that you were there and that you knew me.
LOL - bombus does not want me to reveal my method. Too bad. I'm going to do it anyway, and for all the skeptics that harassed me and disrupted my attempts to share it over the past few years too. After all, this is the best Roulette website in the entire world isn't it? Everyone will really enjoy getting their hands on a working method. Don't you think?
I'll write everything down and publish it encrypted. If you break the encryption then you will know before I pass away. All you will need is the secret phrase. I just have to figure out how to give up that secret phrase after I'm gone.
LOL
Oh goody gooody...You have yourself a heap of fun there Gizmotron.
Quote from: bombus on May 31, 2009, 12:27:35 AM
Oh goody gooody...You have yourself a heap of fun there Gizmotron.
I already did. You are going to be the goofball when this comes out. Just think, I'll be dead. You get a working system and I dropped dead. It's a win win.
QuoteI just have to figure out how to give up that secret phrase after I'm gone.
A possible solution: you need to setup a monthly "cron job" at any web server. Next you write a tiny server program or PHP page which reads the file ./month.txt and if it does NOT contain current month in plain text, it will write a text file on the public nolinks directory, -say-nolinks://nolinks.gizmotron.com/holygrail.txt
You pass this URL to every roulette forum, message board and news syndication you feel like.
Each month, you have to update current month on the month.txt file.
So the month you aren't there to update the file, it is assumed you died (hey! You had a whole month!) the cron job runs and as the month on file doesn't match then the file nolinks://nolinks.gizmotron.com/holygrail.txt gets published.
You can and instruct message board members to visit it every month under the promise it will take at most 1 month for them to get the file holding the holy grail after you die.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 31, 2009, 12:38:57 AM
I already did. You are going to be the goofball when this comes out. Just think, I'll be dead. You get a working system and I dropped dead. It's a win win.
Touché.
PS
I'm already a goofball.
I'm not inclined to use any CGI tricks, where the clock on the server can be manipulated, bingo! I must be dead so here is the secret phrase. I need to give it to a person under a non disclosure agreement.
I have congestive heart failure. I could kick the bucket at any time. I think I won't any time soon, but you never know. It's an irony too. I'm taking care of my father who has the same problem. That keeps me from running wild on a break the casino binge. So I can't do what I want until he passes away and I might check out before him. I'm all he has so I do what I can. Life is very funny. Sometimes it throws you a curve ball. So I want to set this up before it's too late.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 31, 2009, 01:01:10 AM
I'm not inclined to use any CGI tricks, where the clock on the server can be manipulated, bingo! I must be dead so here is the secret phrase. I need to give it to a person under a non disclosure agreement.
I have congestive heart failure. I could kick the bucket at any time. I think I won't any time soon, but you never know. It's an irony too. I'm taking care of my father who has the same problem. That keeps me from running wild on a break the casino binge. So I can't do what I want until he passes away and I might check out before him. I'm all he has so I do what I can. Life is very funny. Sometimes it throws you a curve ball. So I want to set this up before it's too late.
Gizmo, use the good ol' scheme then.
Sealed envelope, "not to open 'til I'm dead" certified will + lawers...
Quote from: shadowman on May 30, 2009, 03:14:48 AM
Perhaps it could be to do with the fact that you could play at any table in any casino and win money, also if you could win consistantly a reasonable amount you would have a recession proof job. Plus if you could find a mechanical system you would have the satisfaction of having beaten random, which is a challange in itself.
Hey, shadowman.
Sit down at any table any time, relatively quick set up to play. Yes that's a plus for mechanical systems, I can see the attraction there for sure, as long as you win, but that's the problem, apparently you don't.
@Number 6
I think you make a strong point. The gambling psychology is a good pointer to mechanical system persistence.
That said, mechanical or no, there will always be discovery & learning regardless of your preferred method of play. Hence I don't believe there is any way to avoid the failing and the tweaking and the further analysis, or the initial impracticalities of newly birthed ideas.
So what if someone was to create a mechanical yet practical and relatively complex procedure that hunts for multiple events, and equipped it with fluctuation counter measures?
Could it work then do you think?
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 31, 2009, 01:01:10 AM
I'm not inclined to use any CGI tricks, where the clock on the server can be manipulated, bingo! I must be dead so here is the secret phrase. I need to give it to a person under a non disclosure agreement.
I have congestive heart failure. I could kick the bucket at any time. I think I won't any time soon, but you never know. It's an irony too. I'm taking care of my father who has the same problem. That keeps me from running wild on a break the casino binge. So I can't do what I want until he passes away and I might check out before him. I'm all he has so I do what I can. Life is very funny. Sometimes it throws you a curve ball. So I want to set this up before it's too late.
Well in light of that post, I sincerely hope it is many, many years before we are privy to your roulette accomplishments Gizmotron. Until then, we can all keep on keepin' on regardless.
Best of health to you and your dad.
Quote from: bombus on May 31, 2009, 02:20:18 AM
Well in light of that post, I sincerely hope it is many, many years before we are privy to your roulette accomplishments Gizmotron. Until then, we can all keep on keepin' on regardless.
Best of health to you and your dad.
Thanks,
I discovered a unique positive progression this week. I've never even considered this kind of a +progression before. It plays right into my method, when times are right. I won 625 last week inside of 42 spins. That would have been more like 8,000 with the same level of value of chips I used. ...yes I will write it down and include it too.
QuoteI have congestive heart failure. I could kick the bucket at any time. I think I won't any time soon, but you never know. It's an irony too. I'm taking care of my father who has the same problem. That keeps me from running wild on a break the casino binge. So I can't do what I want until he passes away and I might check out before him. I'm all he has so I do what I can. Life is very funny. Sometimes it throws you a curve ball. So I want to set this up before it's too late.
Giz.
I am Truly sorry to hear that about You and Your Father.
I know what its like to have Heart Disease.
My Wife & I will Pray for You & Your Father.
Lanky.
QuoteI can see where you're coming from here as eventually it must be a trigger of some sort that commences an attack, and trigger of some sort that ends it. There may even be triggers that change an attack mid stream, including raising and lowering the stake. These triggers can be thoroughly rigid, or as vague and ambiguous as the player can manage, but after the long haul, they will all slot into regular little mechanical boxes, they will all be reactive to little inbuilt switches within the player's game.
bombus I just want to quote you and this is what it is about for me and i know many don't agree
when is it a random pick or a mechanical pickCheers LS
QuoteWhy couldn't a mechanical system operate over multiple data streams, and have deviation factors that react to what's happening on the table?
Bombus,
Yes, no argument from me. And LS is right to say that in the end you have to make a decision so to that extent any kind of play is mechanical, unless you're just betting randomly believing that no bet selection is better than any other. Most people believe this - that the term "bet selection" in roulette is meaningless, and it's all purely a matter of luck. ::)
Maybe mechanical should mean "a consistent winning bet". I don't believe there is one. Is it then contradictory to assert that a number of different bets played over a series cannot be profitable either, because any one of them can't be?
QuoteYes, no argument from me. And LS is right to say that in the end you have to make a decision so to that extent any kind of play is mechanical, unless you're just betting randomly believing that no bet selection is better than any other.
Thanks Tangram nice to see we agree a littel.
But i don't say that one way or the other is better.
I just say there is no educated guess.
Cheers LS
Quotewhen is it a random pick or a mechanical pick
I would say whether it's random or mechanical is based on the information you have. If you have data which suggests that the wheel is biased towards certain sectors/numbers and you play that sector, then it's a mechanical selection. If you believe that all sectors/numbers are equally likely then it's a random pick.
The question is when is it appropriate and rational to interpret the data as suggestive of bias? ???
Quote from: bombus
@Number 6
I think you make a strong point. The gambling psychology is a good pointer to mechanical system persistence.
That said, mechanical or no, there will always be discovery & learning regardless of your preferred method of play. Hence I don't believe there is any way to avoid the failing and the tweaking and the further analysis, or the initial impracticalities of newly birthed ideas.
So what if someone was to create a mechanical yet practical and relatively complex procedure that hunts for multiple events, and equipped it with fluctuation counter measures?
Could it work then do you think?
There comes a time when people must realise that stone age methods which rely heavily and entirely on one thing (not talking about trends) can't defeat randomness. The principle problem behind the traditional mechanical system is that they are built on probability theory - what's likely to happen and what isn't. Probability theory really means very little to roulette, randomness doesn't care about equations or rules. You can't use probabilities to try to guess at how the randomness might behave in your next session at the table. I don't believe that you will ever see all 37/38 numbers appear consecutively...and that is the only probability and event I'm willing to trust not to happen when I play any of 100% mechanical system. There is nothing wrong with testing ideas and analysing why they went wrong, in fact it is encouraged, but really no matter how you turn something around and how many different ways you apply it, it is always going to be the same thing, only in disguise, and you're still going to end up in the same place. All roads lead to Rome.
Of course, your last sentence is an oxymoron :smile:
QuoteAll roads lead to Rome.
Well I play
random against random with one static rule and it can take a life time before I find a sequence from hell.
It will not happen next week because I have a
lightning conductor.
That means I loss if I win the 1 million lottery.Cheers Lucky Strike
Quote from: Lucky Strike
Well I play random against random with one static rule and it can take a life time before I find a sequence from hell.
It will not happen next week because I have a lightning conductor.
That means I loss if I win the 1 million lottery.
Cheers Lucky Strike
Hi LS :laugh:
But that is betting on sequences, which I wouldn't consider 100% mechanical. I think all methods have some form of mechanicalism in them, only some are more mechanical than others. Anyway, mechanical or not, does it really matter as long as it works?
It is correct there is a sequence once not twice.
Reducing bets.
One static rule.
Lightning conductor.
To give you a hint about some-thing that will not be public.
Mechanical no exept one generating rule yes.
Yes it is all in.
Some divide a staking plan to small attacks.
LS
I don't mention this because I know what will happen if I post it.
Some will read about it then they will try it.
Then they will find it boring to win 1, 2 or 3 units in one visit.
Then it will become and old post in the past and members will keep looking for a consistently winning method.
It has already happen in this forum.
There is post here about methods that some have used to fed there family with.
And there is method where they have won 100 session and break even 4 of them and lost 3.
So I guess we would need a section that we collect this methods.
Just have to mention it is not easy things to achieve there is long hours to spend in a real casino.
And to help Victor to get more sponsorship to hes forum this should only be seen by those who contribute with a least 5 Euro a month.
LS