Reason to win system ... GF ot NOT GF? This is the question !

[Psolaras]

CATALIST if you will read all my posts you will see that I have nothing to do with a newby.

I have one suggestion for you that you make it random instead of rigid static.

This thing that you posted doesn t help in anyway ! Static or random are both leading to the same ... -2.7!!!!!
 So from this post that you made...should I also consider- make the conclusion that you are a newby???

If you have in mind that roulette can t be beaten then I would suggest never to post anything else in here.Because this forum is for members that have the hope and ambition to make money from this game.EVEN IF THAT WILL NEVER BE POSSIBLE we are here to search,explore,engineer,test.

I know very well that till now the only thing that has a real advantage to win in opnly with AP VB or BIAS.
 But I don t have the patience to expore all my casino wheels and play after 1 month...lol Simply because this wheel can very easy be moved ot the conditions can change or anything.....
What I need to find is a method that can be played in any wheel that is producing a Random outcome......

Logic and Maths tell that it can t be......but I haven t yet lost my mood in searching.

Thank you

[ReDsQuaD]

I have made a system that is based in a lot of rules of roulette.
Sleepers , repeaters , progression when we win .

The only problem with sleepers, you can never guarantee it will wake up. Many times i have had colums or dozens sleep for 14 times, some times 20.

Betting against sleepers is just a gamble, one day it will clean you out, its simply a matter of time.

I am not here to piss on your parade, i am sharing my experience with sleepers.

James.

[kenio]

I'm back and lets go straight to the business. 
At this moment I show you an example with couple crucial informations. 
We start with our tracking
1.      31
2.      13
3.      20
4.      13
5.      29
6.      7
7.      2
8.      23
9.      27
10.    24
11.    31
12.    24
13.    18
14.    30
15.    8
16.    24
17.    12
18.    33
19.    20
20.    17
21.    6
22.    0
23.    5
24.    24
25.    17
26.    9
27.    25
28.    22
29.    21
30.    22
31.    3
32.    30
33.    22
34.    28
35.    5
36.    12
37.    29
38.    35
39.    9
-----------------------------
After 39 spins we finally got our 'non-hit' sector.   1-4-10-11-14-15-16-19-26-32-34-36

According to math, the expected value in this case ( 12 numbers sector in 39 spins) is 12.  65
This means the in 39 spins our sector should be hit 12 times.   We got 0 hits. 
Lets go a little bit deeper with our math and take standard deviaton into our consideration. 
-68% of statistics fall between the expected value minus one standard deviation and the expected value plus one standard deviation
-95% of outcomes fall between the expected value and Plus/minus 2 standard deviations. 
-99.  7% of outcome fall between the expected value and plus/minus 3 standard deviations – we will use this one. 

In our example SD=[(12/37) X (25/37) X 39] ^0.  5
                        SD=2.  92
With our sector we fall with 4-SD.   There is  only one way to make it up all the way to our EV or around 1-SD.   Our sector will be hitting shortly. 

Lets continue our game.   Now we start betting on our sector. 

No.          P/L

0            -12 units
19          +12 units

According to the rules we take the profit and finish our session. 

But the best part is coming.   During this game, 326 spins were recorded.   Here is the outcome.   After those 326 spins, our sector was hit 105 times. 
The expected value for 12 numbers in 326 spins is .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   105.  72.   Exactly like with the perfect wheel. 

For those who dont recommend betting on sleepers  

[Psolaras]

Thanks kenio for your Math lecture 
Are you a math teacher or something?

There is a page in the Turbo Genius site that he shows a system tested in  10k spins!
He tested this system we 2 deferent ways.
way1= betting randomly
way2=betting sleepers

The graph of those 10k  spins were completelly deferent .....the random betting were big UPS and big DOWNS and in the end a loser...wile the sleepers betting were big UPS,small DOWNS and in the end a big WINNER !!!! And we are talking about the SAme METHOD WITH JUST DEFERENT BET SELECTION .

Here is the page

nolinks://turbogenius.webs.com/possibleholygrail.htm

RedQuad  this isn t a method of betting on the sleepers ONLY ! because when the sleeper is waking up we are continuing betting on it-so we are also betting repeaters- and with deferent chip valieu

[Jeromin]

Hi Psolaras.
First of all, thank you for sharing yourf system.  I don't want to be the guy who is only lurking and don't contribute at all.
I've been thinking of using something similar.  The difference is that as soon as I get my 12 ' non-hit' numbers I would start betting on them using progression 1-1-2-3-5-8-11-17.  
But I don't want to confuse people and mess up your thread.  Lets focus on your method.
As soon as I get home I will post more info, what I like about this system

I can tell you from testing over 300 sessions, that the 8 step  progression you are using ( tested on 13 sleepers, though, not 12 ) fails 1-2% of the time. On six steps the failures increase to about 5%. The first 3 hit about 75% of the time.

And psolaras, you are right: most people in this forum are lazy and won't test anything. I have posted elsewhere a 100 session sample of my tests ( nearly 5000 spins ), using Kon-Fu-Sed's software for G.U.T. It takes groups of fifty numbers and shows the sleepers, repeaters, double repeaters and so on, as they happen. Very useful. Got no reaction, probably because it's a testing tool, not a fully worked out system, even though it's very useful for getting ideas on and trying out any system involving sleepers and repeats.

Jeromin

[Psolaras]

thanks for ur reply Jeromin 

If ppl aren t helping each other then what is the advantage of being a member in a forum....

[Jeromin]

Thanks kenio for your Math lecture 
Are you a math teacher or something?

There is a page in the Turbo Genius site that he shows a system tested in  10k spins!
He tested this system we 2 deferent ways.
way1= betting randomly
way2=betting sleepers

The graph of those 10k  spins were completelly deferent .....the random betting were big UPS and big DOWNS and in the end a loser...wile the sleepers betting were big UPS,small DOWNS and in the end a big WINNER !!!! And we are talking about the SAme METHOD WITH JUST DEFERENT BET SELECTION .

I guess you could test it on 1,000,000 RNG numbers and 1,000,000 real wheel spins and if the results hold, submit it as conclusive prove that the wheel does, indeed, have memory

[Psolaras]

Let s hope about it  man

[kenio]

No, I'm not a math teacher.  Actually probability ( efective value, standard deviations) are the only thing which make sense to me, so why not use it.
The problem with all the systems, and all the tests I found on this forum is, that people give up as soon as thier system/strategy loose for te first time.
I realy like what Psolaras wrote:
" Please remember that by lossing some sessions doesn t mean that we lost the WAR! It means that we just lost a BATTLE. . . the WAR is the one that we have to win . (Long Run) "
He is now +536 units in profit.  That means that,  he can have 2 losing sessions and he still will be close to BE.
Now, what if the losing session would appear as the first one? How many people would still continue playing this system?

[Robeenhuut]

It looks very promising and thx 4 the effort but unless there is reliable data after gazilion of spins. . .
And to kenio: very neat math work but standard deviation for under 1k events? how about 100k?  The basic error is that yes in a large number of spins your expected value should fall in a very narrow range but how r u going to profit
from that?.  Show me that.  Lots of people tried and failed.  Play any strategy using inside bets, pray 4 luck,
get decent br, prepare to take occasional loss, stop at right moment and start over again.
I will run your system when i have time @ tell u how soon it crashed.  Sorry 4 voice of reason.
One more thing: wishful thinking is very contagious and this is common 4 most roulette forums.
This is just a observation from a newbie i hope with some common sense.
I think that we should concentrate our efforts to come up with effective short term hit and run STRATEGY
not system.
Good day 4 everybody. 

[Psolaras]

Kenio I agree with all of what you said and thanks!

Robeenhuut  you posted:
I think that we should concentrate our efforts to come up with effective short term hit and run STRATEGY
not system.


I am sorry my friend mut this is certently the WRONG WRONG way.....simply because the HIT and RUN does not work in the long run and this is 100% sure !!!!

A nice member has given a very succecfull example about it !!!

He said that driving the car 100 miles per day or running the car for 10 miles the day leads to the same possibility for an accident !!!!

Simply because the miles are adding up....

[schoenpoetser]

One of my basic rules is,play after a virtual lost and stop after a hit.This kind of hit and run is very successful.Draw the lost and the win in a diagram and you will see it is wave line.The amplitude and the wave length are important for your decisions.

[Psolaras]

schoenpoetser thank you for ur advice and observation.
Please don t get me wrong ,I will just tell you my opinion about virtual losses.
Bu betting after a virtual loss we are losing the winning oportunities that will come when wins will hit after the wins....
so its exactly the same thing as playing consistently without waiting for a virtual loss....because the wins-loss ratio will not be improved

But this is just my opinion...let s hope that one day when we will make a sold system-method the virtual loss concept will help .

[kenio]

I had a really bad  session.
After 34 spins  I got my sector 1-7-8-9-13-16-17-19-22-27-29-33

stake    No.        P/L

x1          24       -12
              4         -24
              10       -36
              26       -48
              26       -60
              16       -36
x2          35       -60
              23       -84
              12       -108
              21       -132
              21       -156
              25       -180
              19       -132
x3          23       -168
              4         -204
              12       -240
              1         -168
x4          36       - 216
              14       -264
              2         -312
-------------------------------  At this point i close our session with negative balance.  But i decided to keep going.
              17        -216
x5           7          -276
               4         -336
              19        -216
x6           4         -288
              19        -144
x7          27        +24  END of session.

The reason why I kept betting after being down -312 units, is that we had our sector selected after only 34 spins, when usually it's around 40 spins.  That means that we didn't have many repeaters during thoe 34 spins.
We either have to find our sector more carefully, or have a bigger bankroll.

[Psolaras]

Nice Kenio.
We have to test  to see the best Br ,stop loss etc.

I want to report that I have tested 30 sessions and I had 2 losses......(with my way of stop loss 300 chips...)...I am still +290 chips....
The results are still possitive but we must tweek the system because as we all know in the LR it s gonna lose......

[Psolaras]

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