Please Win..

[bombus]

Game 12...

2400 spins / current balance = -1004

[bombus]

Game 13...

2600 spins / current balance = -2036

[bombus]

Game 14...

2800 spins / current balance = -2440


This is the first game so far that was never in profit at some point. I will be playing this game again with the updated rules.

We'll see if there is any improvement.

[bombus]

After 14 games the most significant statistic is the fact that despite the overall loss, the method moved into profit at some point in 13 out of 14 attempts.

This shows the method has some potential to profit.

The first thing to do then is include a rule that restarts the game at each and every new bankroll high.

The other significant statistic is the consistent appearance of large drawdowns.

This is because as it stands the method is playing through larger spin samples with many loaded progressions being beaten by unfavourable dispersions.

The second thing to do then is include a rule that dumps outstanding progressions and restarts the game after a 4 step progression loss.

The problem here is that this method has two separate progression types so the rule should be to end the game only for the losing progression type and continue with the remaining progression type.

When both progression types have lost once each the game is over. Restart new game.

Ending each progression type as they lose will also mean altering the sequence of bets, which could be a good thing as it will mean the bet selection is no longer stuck on the poor dispersion trail that caused it to lose in the first place.

From this point forward I will play the remainder of the Horror sessions with the new rules in place.

To avoid reverse engineering, any new changes will be included before starting any new session.




Here is game 16...

with the new format (session 15 to follow as it is stored on my other computer which is out of action at the moment).

[bombus]

Oops!

Forgot to attach.

Here is game 16... 

[bombus]

Game 15...  

This game should have ended at spin 176 - bankroll 921. This is because the 200 spin cut off point has left the current game unfinished.

[bombus]

Game 17...  

A tough game with several losses but managed to end with +109 units.

[cheese]

The other significant statistic is the consistent appearance of large drawdowns.

If a method doesn't break even when its not winning, open a window and throw it out.

[bombus]

If a method doesn't break even when its not winning, open a window and throw it out.

Yes that's the final fix for this system.

When do I throw the current game out the window and start a new one?

If it's losing and I throw it out too soon then I'm not giving the system enough opportunity to win back the losses. Do this too often and it's goodnight Irene.

If it's losing and I persist betting too long then I'm opening the door for a poor dispersion or the session from hell to walk in and annihilate the system. It could recover but likely would mean playing a superhuman marathon to get square.

So I need to play through some downturns, but abandon others. There needs to be a tipping point.

This is a double ledger game, and at this point I've settled on, any two progression losses on one side of the ledger = end game.

I'll play the next game with this dumping rule in place.

[Mr J]

"When do I throw the current game out the window and start a new one" >>> Yep, I call it....When to kick a method to the side?

Ken

[cheese]

I'll play the next game with this dumping rule in place.

My new kick is calculating EV. If you can't accurately calculate the EV for a method, why are you taking it to the casino? There are two types of players, serious and recreational. Which do you want to be? If you can't calculate on paper what the expected value is, stay home. You'll find the EV of most methods is negative. If you know that about your method, why would you ever risk real money with it? If you're a serious player, that is..

[cheese]

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