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[snietsniE]

This is good bet selection if online roullete is fair game:

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Let's assume we know how many spins a location will go without showing. . .
We form a progression to handle "x" number of spins, then play only when we
have reached a point where we know we will win.
(of course this is a 100% win system, the problem is that a losing streak may and could
go beyond the limits we have as data)

This is all of the 2:1 bets for 100,000 spins combined into one chart.
(all 3 dozens and all 3 columns)


COUNT
   SPINS
1
   63,126
2
   42,515
3
   28,954
4
   19,584
5
   13,177
6
   8,788
7
   5,966
8
   4,066
9
   2,775
10
   1,874
11
   1,234
12
   850
13
   587
14
   354
15
   241
16
   183
17
   130
18
   85
19
   56
20
   41
21
   21
22
   18
23
   6
24
   6
25
   5
26
   2
27
   1
28
   0
29
   2
30
   1
31
   0
32
   1
33
   0
34
   1


We can see from our data that 34 spins was the max that any 2:1 location failed to show.
It happened only one time.

Now, what is the longest possible progression we can make for a 2:1 bet location ?
Well, this all depends on the casino's table limits.
But let's work with something to use as an example :

$5. 00 minimum bet with $1,000. 00 max bet.
(most casinos vary this min and max so if your building a progression for where you
play, you first need to know these limits)

In order to profit from each spin when it wins, you need to bet the following
progression :



Spin
   Amount
   Win
   Loss
1
   5. 00
   +10. 00
   -5. 00
2
   5. 00
   +5. 00
   -10. 00
3
   6. 00
   +2. 00
   -16. 00
4
   9. 00
   +2. 00
   -25. 00
5
   13. 00
   +1. 00
   -38. 00
6
   20. 00
   +2. 00
   -58. 00
7
   30. 00
   +2. 00
   -88. 00
8
   45. 00
   +2. 00
   -133. 00
9
   67. 00
   +1. 00
   -200. 00
10
   101. 00
   +2. 00
   -301. 00
11
   151. 00
   +1. 00
   -452. 00
12
   227. 00
   +2. 00
   -679. 00
13
   340. 00
   +1. 00
   -1,019. 00
14
   510. 00
   +1. 00
   -1,529. 00
15
   765. 00
   +1. 00
   -2,294. 00
16
   1,148. 00
   +2. 00
   -3,442. 00
17
   1,722. 00
   +2. 00
   -5,164. 00
18
   n/a
   
   
19
   n/a
   
   
20
   n/a
   
   
21
   n/a
   
   
22
   n/a
   
   
23
   n/a
   
   
24
   n/a
   
   
25
   n/a
   
   
26
   n/a
   
   
27
   n/a
   
   
28
   n/a
   
   
29
   n/a
   
   
30
   n/a
   
   
31
   n/a
   
   
32
   n/a
   
   
33
   n/a
   
   
34
   n/a
   
   


Our data shows us (with these limits). .

We need a bankroll of 5,164. 00 and we can stretch the progression to a max of 17 spins.


This means, we can play these 100,000 spins and not lose - so long as we
start after a 2:1 location fails to show for 17 straight spins, then use our progression.

The results ?

Horrible (in a nutshell)


Count
   Spins
   Win amount
   Total
1
   63,126
   no bet
   0
2
   42,515
   no bet
   0
3
   28,954
   no bet
   0
4
   19,584
   no bet
   0
5
   13,177
   no bet
   0
6
   8,788
   no bet
   0
7
   5,966
   no bet
   0
8
   4,066
   no bet
   0
9
   2,775
   no bet
   0
10
   1,874
   no bet
   0
11
   1,234
   no bet
   0
12
   850
   no bet
   0
13
   587
   no bet
   0
14
   354
   no bet
   0
15
   241
   no bet
   0
16
   183
   no bet
   0
17
   130
   no bet
   0
18
   85
   10
   850
19
   56
   5
   280
20
   41
   2
   82
21
   21
   2
   42
22
   18
   1
   18
23
   6
   2
   12
24
   6
   2
   12
25
   5
   2
   10
26
   2
   1
   2
27
   1
   2
   2
28
   0
   1
   0
29
   2
   2
   4
30
   1
   1
   1
31
   0
   1
   0
32
   1
   1
   1
33
   0
   2
   0
34
   1
   2
   2


This gives us a grand total profit of +$1,318. 00

This equals a profit per spin of +$. 01318 (about a penny and a third) per spin.

Now, this took a bankroll of $5,164. 00 to achieve, and after 100,000
spins - we are only ahead $1,318. 00



Sadly, to build a "perfect" progression, and be almost assured that will not fail
(and it could). . .  we reduce our profits to such a point that this isn't worth the effort.

Note also, this is just 100,000 spins - it's possible that the next session will produce a
sleeper of over 34 spins - and a loss of a bankroll of 5. 1k
And - table qualification means that we are possibly waiting for a massive number of spins
while we wait for the table to qualify.

In closing, to make a perfect progression that is very close to un-losable, we can expect
at best 1. 3 pennies of profit per spin.

Any ideas, please post at this sites forum, VIP or GG message boards.
Hope the info is usefull and makes us think about our approach to betting and
the "holy grail" - If anything is taken from this, please remember that the Holy Grail
(when found) will produce only the smallest of possible returns - rendering it worthless.

[snietsniE]

After 300. 000 spins with a random generator, the result of sleepers as follow:
Straight: 467
Split: 289
Street: 148
Corner: 127
Sixline: 85
Column: 34
Dozen: 34
Red/Black:19
Over/Under:18
Odd/Even: 21

[schoenpoetser]

If you know the theory of Blaise Pascal then is it possible to compute the average outcomes.For the dozens and columns is the sample  too small .For ECs you can use 2^x=300000.The result is between 18 and 19.The results
18,19 and 21 were predictable with a very small deviation.For the other chances  the deviations can be very large.
Without the mathematical knowledge it is impossible to make conclusions.

[snietsniE]

Thanks for your information, schoenpoetser!
After testing this bet selection with progression that calculated base on Minbet, Maxbet and minimum profit with a win, the result is so bad. 

[schoenpoetser]

I wrote it before,the most successful systems and strategies are at ECS and dozens and columns.For the other chances you must have a lot of experience.

[schoenpoetser]

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