Dozens bet selection

[Bambura]

Hi,


This is my first post here. I have come across on the internet a dozens betting strategy. So thanks to the author of it.

Rules: Wait till one dozen repeat itself...for example H L L then bet on L and continue to bet on the L dozen till you loose the bet.  When you lost the bet, then wait for a repeat of the dozen and bet again the dozen to be a winner for the third time.

Progression used is below:

1,2,3,4,6,9,13,20,30,45,67,100    It is a negative progression, so when you loose a bet then use the next number of the progression.


My question would be to the experienced players: Is it possible that the progression will go up to 100?


The other is a request: Is there anybody who could test this strategy on high volume of spins on RNG (10 000, 20 000 spins) and post the result here.

For me so far so good, I have not gone up in the progression more than 9.

Thanks, Bambura

[Nathan Detroit]

To catch ONE  dozen  in any form or manner is  a  tough venture. Those  12  numbers  are distributed well  over  the  entire wheel   ..........6   on each half of the  wheel.



Just check the   number sequence of the wheel and you shall see.

My  very basic advice is   to  play  2 dozens instead   of  one and don`t chase  losses rather deploy  a  positive  progression  after 2 wins in a row. Example : The Charles  Guetting progression

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!

[TwoCatSam]

Bambura

"Rules: Wait till one dozen repeat itself...for example H L L then bet on L and continue to bet on the L dozen till you lose the bet.  When you lost the bet, then wait for a repeat of the dozen and bet again the dozen to be a winner for the third time."

If a dozen repeats itself, the logo would be Lww.  So you're waiting for a dozen to hit twice and then you're betting for it to hit again?

Let's clarify this point and then move on to your question.

Welcome to the forum.

Sam

[Bambura]

Hello, Thank you for all of your reply. Ok to make it more clear 

1. wait that one dozen hits two times: L H M H H now you have two H, so bet on H again if win, then bet H again until you lose one bet.

2. It lost, so L H M H H  you bet H , but lost, then wait for ANY dozens to repeat, so lets say

L H M H H....you were betting H bot lost it goes to M H L L .stop here you have two L L, so you place two units on L...if it lost then wait again for two repeats....so it continues as M H L M M stop here you place 3 units on M if lost, then wait again for any two repeat,  and after every loss, use the progression above...1,2,3,4,6,9,......etc.

[Bayes]

Hi Bambura,

In my opinion your progression is of a suicidal variety. My advice is to stop using it while you're ahead. Dozens can sleep for 25+ spins, your progression is only 12. Yes, I know you're not betting on a dozen to show, but any bet selection of 2:1 odds will have very similar distributions of loss and win streaks. In this case you're betting that any dozen won't continue to repeat once and only once over an extended number of spins, so far you've been lucky. Just a matter of time... 

[TwoCatSam]

Bambura

You might want to read Bayes's post very carefully.  From his photo, I'd guess he's been around since about the 17th century and he is learned.

A word in your ear:  Around here we use the Lw method of identify winners and losers.  Our eyes and brains are accustomed to it.  I think you'll get more replies if you change to that.

........When in Rome.............

Sam

[Robeenhuut]

Hello, Thank you for all of your reply. Ok to make it more clear 

1. wait that one dozen hits two times: L H M H H now you have two H, so bet on H again if win, then bet H again until you lose one bet.

2. It lost, so L H M H H  you bet H , but lost, then wait for ANY dozens to repeat, so lets say

L H M H H....you were betting H bot lost it goes to M H L L .stop here you have two L L, so you place two units on L...if it lost then wait again for two repeats....so it continues as M H L M M stop here you place 3 units on M if lost, then wait again for any two repeat,  and after every loss, use the progression above...1,2,3,4,6,9,......etc.

Hello

Wait for 1 DZ hit 3 times in a row then bet against it. Then wait for another DZ hit 3 times and   use 3 or 4 step progression 1,2,6 or 1,2,6,18 if you lose first bet and bet 1u on each DZ if you won your bet. Progression lets you break even and you make profit on your first won bet.

Regards

[Bambura]

Thanks for the replies. I am playing with 10 pence / unit, so even the hundred is 10 quid only.

The thing what is hard to imagine for me, as I am betting on getting the third repeat in a dozen, that in the flow of random numbers the repeating dozen will be only two for 12 times in a raw, so I miss the third repeats for twelve consecutive times. Thats kind of manipulated for me. It should generate singles, twos, threes, fours, and so on, sometimes a dozen repeating 6 times in a row, so it has to be so callled REGULATED, that it would  bring the 12 losing streak.

So you are saying based on your experience, that this could happen? Then will increase the progression with two more numbers, then will be 14. I am not a geek, but the randomness of the game would be lost if it happens this way. Would be the same on red and black as well...like having 2 blacks two reads for 12 times in a raw...can that happen? 

Well, I am not arguing with you as you have more experience, just writing my thoughts.

And by the way, my aim is not to attract and collect posts, just sharing my thoughts freely.

Thanks.

 

[albertojonas]

For me it is obvious that is much nicer to play after a repeat that it will not happen again

[Bayes]

The thing what is hard to imagine for me, as I am betting on getting the third repeat in a dozen, that in the flow of random numbers the repeating dozen will be only two for 12 times in a raw, so I miss the third repeats for twelve consecutive times. Thats kind of manipulated for me. It should generate singles, twos, threes, fours, and so on, sometimes a dozen repeating 6 times in a row, so it has to be so callled REGULATED, that it would  bring the 12 losing streak.

It's tempting to draw such conclusions; most roulette system designers are attracted to the idea that random outcomes behave in a certain way and create systems on this basis, but unfortunately the premise is flawed.

If you take a pattern of fixed length (say 12), it definitely is NOT the case that certain apparently "non-random" patterns are less likely to show than any other patterns. Lotto players often go out of their way to choose seemingly random sequences like 2,7,16,24,29,33 instead of say 1,2,3,4,5,6 believing that the latter sequence is less likely to come up.

"Random" really means that each possible sequence is just as likely to occur as any other sequence, but it seems to be very hard for people to get their head around that fact. This diabolical symmetry is the bane of roulette system designers, who endlessly tweak systems in an attempt to find some Asymmetry. Mathematically, each sequence has exactly the same chance of showing as any other. That and the fact that outcomes are independent is really the definition of what "random" is - not some preconceived idea of what's random and what isn't, which is usually based on our inherent bias to detect patterns. People have very poor intuitions of probability, that's been shown many times in psychological studies.

It IS true that the patterns you identify as "non-random" are usually a small subset of the total number of possible patterns, for example in a sequence of 12 Reds or Blacks, these regular repeating patterns seem to be less likely, e.g.:

R B R B R B R B R B R B

RR B RR B RR B RR B

RRR BBB RRR BBB

etc...

There are far fewer of these kinds of patterns than those which you recognize as "more random", say RR B RRR BB R B RR, so it might seem as though you're warranted in betting that these (apparently non-random) sequences WON'T occur. The problem, however, is when you start using steep progressions. A pattern won't continue indefinitely, but it can and WILL continue (sooner or later) for long enough to destroy any kind of "one win recovers all debt and makes a profit" kind of progression. In 12 spins (or even 24), ANYTHING can happen.

The fact is, is doesn't make a damn bit of difference what sequence you use to bet on (or against), but if you knew this, would you use that kind of progression in the first place? The very basis (presumably) for taking such a risk is the notion that the sequence in question is LESS likely to occur than any of the other possible sequences, but that simply isn't the case.

[cheese]

Mathematically, each sequence has exactly the same chance of showing as any other.

And thats the Achilles Heel of roulette. You not only
have to read random, you have to learn to think in
a random fashion. That every outcome has an equal
chance levels the playing field. Reading and thinking
in a random fashion gets you on the same page as
what the wheel is producing.

'Think in random' will be the next in a long line of concepts
Gizmo has stolen from me. I'm used to it.

[synax.one]

when you think random its better that think non random?

[cheese]

when you think random its better that think non random?

For roulette, yes.

[crackers]

'Think in random' will be the next in a long line of concepts
Gizmo has stolen from me. I'm used to it.

Why would anyone want to take that or ever want to claim it?

[cheese]

Why would anyone want to take that or ever want to claim it?

Because you can't come up with anything on
your own.

[cheese]

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