System based purely in Maths

[winkel]

Sam,

The odds of hitting one of 10 numbers in 20 spins is 99.99979%. So the opposite is pretty rare but it can happen!!

Hope that helps.

Mocco

That´s nice but doesn´t help at all:

20 times 10 units = 200 units bet
1 time 26 units won = 26
result = -174

progression for 10 units
10
10
10
20
20
30
40
80
80
110
150
210

12 stages, 770 units bet, 21 units on a single number mostly hits every table-limit.

This is the other part of house-edge: As soon as you reach a good %-of profitchance the house-edge (table-limit) stopps you.

br
winkel

[bliss]

As I understand it we are looking for a sequence of 20 numbers where there are no repeats. The way I would tackle this would be to use the basic probability formula:

Probability = no of outcomes giving the "looked for" result/total number of equally likely outcomes

The "looked for" result is a sequence of 20 numbers with no repeats, so to get the number of outcomes, think of 20 "slots" to be filled, with each slot representing one spin. For the 1st spin, the number of possible outcomes is 37 (there are 37 ways of filling the slot), for the 2nd slot, there are only 36 possible outcomes (because one of the numbers has been "used up"). So far then, there are 37 x 36 outcomes (because each of the 37 outcomes on the first spin is combined with the 36 possible outcomes on the 2nd spin). So continuing, for the 3rd slot there are 35 "available" numbers to "choose" from, the 4th slot, there are 34 etc. In total we have:

37*36*35*34*33*32*31*30*29*28*27*26*25*24*23*22*21*20*19*18 = 3.86962 x 10²⁸

That's the "top" of the fraction in the formula (this is tedious to calculate, but there is a formula you can use, if you have a scientific calculator) . To calculate the "bottom" part of it, just recognise that each outcome (spin) is equally likely over the 20 spins, so the total number of equally likely outcomes is just:

37*37*37*37*37.... etc = 37²⁰ = 2.31225 x 10³¹

So the probability is 3.86962 x 10²⁸/2.31225 x 10³¹ = 0.00167 = 0.167%

Remember this is the chance that all 20 numbers will be different, which represents a loss for the system (this will occur roughly one time in 600 attempts, on average) . So the chance of success (at least one number repeats) is 1 - 0.00167 = 99.8%.

This is misleading though, because you aren't actually placing  bets for 20 successive spins, but waiting for 10 no-repeats and only then betting for another 10. Your actual chance of failure (busting the progression) would be quite a bit higher.

[mananova]

Ive never seen it fail, EVER!!

Get to the end of this and you will have lol

Spin   Number   Type   Bet Unit   Win   Loss   Net   Unit Bal.   Bet Layout
0                     2200   
1   21   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
2   30   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
3   36   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
4   33   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
5   23   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
6   13   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
7   23   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
8   0   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
9   18   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
10   29   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
11   23   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
12   18   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
13   20   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
14   29   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
15   8   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
16   31   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
17   17   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
18   35   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
19   10   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
20   32   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2200   
21   12   Bet   10   0   -10   -10   2190   1 : 8,10,17,18,20,23,29,31,32,35
22   1   Bet   25   0   -25   -25   2165   2.5 : 8,10,17,18,20,23,29,31,32,35
23   12   Bet   45   0   -45   -45   2120   4.5 : 8,10,17,18,20,23,29,31,32,35
24   11   Bet   70   0   -70   -70   2050   7 : 8,10,17,18,20,23,29,31,32,35
25   7   Bet   110   0   -110   -110   1940   11 : 8,10,17,18,20,23,29,31,32,35
26   8   Bet   165   594   -165   429   2369   16.5 : 8,10,17,18,20,23,29,31,32,35
27   11   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2369   
28   23   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2369   
29   14   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2369   
30   3   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2369   
31   18   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2369   
32   24   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2369   
33   31   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2369   
34   19   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2369   
35   22   Bet   10   0   -10   -10   2359   1 : 3,7,8,11,14,18,19,23,24,31
36   1   Bet   24.5   0   -24.5   -24.5   2334.5   2 : 242.5 : 3,7,8,11,14,18,19,23,31
37   36   Bet   45   0   -45   -45   2289.5   4.5 : 3,7,8,11,14,18,19,23,24,31
38   8   Bet   70   252   -70   182   2471.5   7 : 3,7,8,11,14,18,19,23,24,31
39   18   Bet   10   36   -10   26   2497.5   1 : 1,3,8,14,18,19,22,24,31,36
40   25   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2497.5   
41   23   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2497.5   
42   18   Bet   10   36   -10   26   2523.5   1 : 1,8,18,19,22,23,24,25,31,36
43   11   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2523.5   
44   34   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2523.5   
45   8   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2523.5   
46   20   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2523.5   
47   21   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2523.5   
48   28   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2523.5   
49   13   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2523.5   
50   13   Bet   10   36   -10   26   2549.5   1 : 8,11,13,18,20,21,23,25,28,34
51   23   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
52   20   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
53   34   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
54   36   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
55   29   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
56   3   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
57   36   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
58   21   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
59   27   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
60   26   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
61   29   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
62   1   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
63   27   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
64   4   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
65   17   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
66   33   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
67   24   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
68   2   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
69   32   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2549.5   
70   32   Bet   10   36   -10   26   2575.5   1 : 1,2,4,17,24,26,27,29,32,33
71   27   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
72   1   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
73   16   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
74   35   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
75   27   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
76   1   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
77   0   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
78   17   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
79   25   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
80   19   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
81   31   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
82   23   No Bet   0   0   0   0   2575.5   
83   30   Bet   10   0   -10   -10   2565.5   1 : 1,16,17,19,23,25,27,31,35,0
84   36   Bet   25   0   -25   -25   2540.5   2.5 : 1,16,17,19,23,25,27,31,35,0
85   3   Bet   45   0   -45   -45   2495.5   4.5 : 1,16,17,19,23,25,27,31,35,0
86   14   Bet   70   0   -70   -70   2425.5   7 : 1,16,17,19,23,25,27,31,35,0
87   7   Bet   110   0   -110   -110   2315.5   11 : 1,16,17,19,23,25,27,31,35,0
88   26   Bet   165   0   -165   -165   2150.5   16.5 : 1,16,17,19,23,25,27,31,35,0
89   29   Bet   230   0   -230   -230   1920.5   23 : 1,16,17,19,23,25,27,31,35,0
90   5   Bet   330   0   -330   -330   1590.5   33 : 1,16,17,19,23,25,27,31,35,0
91   6   Bet   470   0   -470   -470   1120.5   47 : 1,16,17,19,23,25,27,31,35,0
92   7   Bet   660   0   -660   -660   460.5   66 : 1,16,17,19,23,25,27,31,35,0
====================================================================================
Used a progression of

1
2.5
4.5
7
11
16.5
23
33
47
66

With dublinbet live wheel numbers.

Not good 

M

[bliss]

mananova, I hope you were playing in fun mode?

If you do a similar calculation to the one above using a sequence of 10 (which gives the true chance of success), the chance is 73.71%.

[mananova]

mananova, I hope you were playing in fun mode?

Yeah i done it on RX with 500 Db numbers just to see when it would go to the 10th.

M

[mananova]

Had a go with 6 unique numbers instead 10 with a prgression of:

6     -6  +30
6     -12 +24
6     -18 +18
6     -24 +12
12    -36 +36
12    -48 +24
12    -60 +12

And if lose go up one:

12
12
12
12
24
24
24 (probaly a bit dangerous though)

Quite suprised how many times 6 hits.



Spin   Number   Type   Bet Unit   Win   Loss   Net   Unit Bal.   Bet Layout
0                     0   
1   26   No Bet   0   0   0   0   0   
2   16   No Bet   0   0   0   0   0   
3   34   No Bet   0   0   0   0   0   
4   18   No Bet   0   0   0   0   0   
5   6   No Bet   0   0   0   0   0   
6   28   No Bet   0   0   0   0   0   
7   21   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   -6   1 : 6,16,18,26,28,34
8   2   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   -12   1 : 6,16,18,26,28,34
9   20   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   -18   1 : 6,16,18,26,28,34
10   3   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   -24   1 : 6,16,18,26,28,34
11   18   Bet   12   72   -12   60   36   2 : 6,16,18,26,28,34
12   31   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   30   1 : 2,3,18,20,21,28
13   34   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   24   1 : 2,3,18,20,21,28
14   25   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   18   1 : 2,3,18,20,21,28
15   34   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   12   1 : 2,3,18,20,21,28
16   8   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   0   2 : 2,3,18,20,21,28
17   11   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   -12   2 : 2,3,18,20,21,28
18   10   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   -24   2 : 2,3,18,20,21,28
19   7   No Bet   0   0   0   0   -24   
20   15   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   -36   2 : 7,8,10,11,25,34
21   20   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   -48   2 : 7,8,10,11,25,34
22   10   Bet   12   72   -12   60   12   2 : 7,8,10,11,25,34
23   20   No Bet   0   0   0   0   12   
24   4   No Bet   0   0   0   0   12   
25   20   No Bet   0   0   0   0   12   
26   14   No Bet   0   0   0   0   12   
27   34   No Bet   0   0   0   0   12   
28   25   No Bet   0   0   0   0   12   
29   14   No Bet   0   0   0   0   12   
30   36   No Bet   0   0   0   0   12   
31   13   No Bet   0   0   0   0   12   
32   32   No Bet   0   0   0   0   12   
33   23   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   6   1 : 13,14,25,32,34,36
34   19   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   0   1 : 13,14,25,32,34,36
35   17   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   -6   1 : 13,14,25,32,34,36
36   2   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   -12   1 : 13,14,25,32,34,36
37   26   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   -24   2 : 13,14,25,32,34,36
38   30   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   -36   2 : 13,14,25,32,34,36
39   34   Bet   12   72   -12   60   24   2 : 13,14,25,32,34,36
40   34   Bet   6   36   -6   30   54   1 : 2,17,19,26,30,34
41   2   No Bet   0   0   0   0   54   
42   25   No Bet   0   0   0   0   54   
43   25   No Bet   0   0   0   0   54   
44   31   No Bet   0   0   0   0   54   
45   32   No Bet   0   0   0   0   54   
46   10   No Bet   0   0   0   0   54   
47   27   No Bet   0   0   0   0   54   
48   1   No Bet   0   0   0   0   54   
49   28   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   48   1 : 1,10,25,27,31,32
50   0   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   42   1 : 1,10,25,27,31,32
51   2   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   36   1 : 1,10,25,27,31,32
52   16   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   30   1 : 1,10,25,27,31,32
53   12   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   18   2 : 1,10,25,27,31,32
54   1   Bet   12   72   -12   60   78   2 : 1,10,25,27,31,32
55   8   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   72   1 : 1,2,12,16,28,0
56   27   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   66   1 : 1,2,12,16,28,0
57   19   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   60   1 : 1,2,12,16,28,0
58   28   Bet   6   36   -6   30   90   1 : 1,2,12,16,28,0
59   19   Bet   6   36   -6   30   120   1 : 1,8,12,19,27,28
60   30   No Bet   0   0   0   0   120   
61   4   No Bet   0   0   0   0   120   
62   17   No Bet   0   0   0   0   120   
63   12   No Bet   0   0   0   0   120   
64   4   Bet   6   36   -6   30   150   1 : 4,12,17,19,28,30
65   18   No Bet   0   0   0   0   150   
66   34   No Bet   0   0   0   0   150   
67   21   No Bet   0   0   0   0   150   
68   28   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   144   1 : 4,12,17,18,21,34
69   4   Bet   6   36   -6   30   174   1 : 4,12,17,18,21,34
70   19   No Bet   0   0   0   0   174   
71   24   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   168   1 : 4,18,19,21,28,34
72   5   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   162   1 : 4,18,19,21,28,34
73   6   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   156   1 : 4,18,19,21,28,34
74   24   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   150   1 : 4,18,19,21,28,34
75   22   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   138   2 : 4,18,19,21,28,34
76   24   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   126   2 : 4,18,19,21,28,34
77   13   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   114   2 : 4,18,19,21,28,34
78   28   No Bet   0   0   0   0   114   
79   18   No Bet   0   0   0   0   114   
80   27   No Bet   0   0   0   0   114   
81   33   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   102   2 : 13,18,22,24,27,28
82   14   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   90   2 : 13,18,22,24,27,28
83   26   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   78   2 : 13,18,22,24,27,28
84   31   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   66   2 : 13,18,22,24,27,28
85   4   Bet   24   0   -24   -24   42   4 : 13,18,22,24,27,28
86   22   Bet   24   144   -24   120   162   4 : 13,18,22,24,27,28
87   14   Bet   6   36   -6   30   192   1 : 4,14,22,26,31,33
88   30   No Bet   0   0   0   0   192   
89   10   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   186   1 : 4,14,22,26,30,31
90   4   Bet   6   36   -6   30   216   1 : 4,14,22,26,30,31
91   16   No Bet   0   0   0   0   216   
92   27   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   210   1 : 4,10,14,16,22,30
93   15   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   204   1 : 4,10,14,16,22,30
94   15   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   198   1 : 4,10,14,16,22,30
95   20   Bet   6   0   -6   -6   192   1 : 4,10,14,16,22,30
96   35   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   180   2 : 4,10,14,16,22,30
97   2   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   168   2 : 4,10,14,16,22,30
98   36   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   156   2 : 4,10,14,16,22,30
99   3   No Bet   0   0   0   0   156   
100   5   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   144   2 : 2,3,15,20,35,36
101   26   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   132   2 : 2,3,15,20,35,36
102   25   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   120   2 : 2,3,15,20,35,36
103   26   Bet   12   0   -12   -12   108   2 : 2,3,15,20,35,36
104   36   Bet   24   144   -24   120   228   4 : 2,3,15,20,35,36

M

[Poit]

the very first post you stated "So for example if Zero was to come in 3 times on the trot, the probability of the next spin bringing a Zero is still a 1 in 37 chance. (European 1 Zero wheel)."

That is incorrect, The ODDS are 1in37 for it to come again but the probablities is 1 in 35x35x35x35.
If what you said was truely correct you would see a single number hit dozens and dozens of time in a row, and this just does not happen. In theory yes, in real life, no. I have a thread @ rouletteforum.net that has 12 million spin stats, and the most a single name has hit is 5 times in a row. The point im trying to make is simple, in a way the last number does have a barring on the next, but more accuretly speaking the last say 100 or 1000 affect the next 1000 in the manner of speaking of probablity. Like rain falling on a foot path, every single rain dropplet has the same odds to hit the same spot, but the probabilities increase as one side of the footpath gets hit more than others for it to hit the other side. Say one side gets 50 drops and the other side gets 20, the 50 that landed on the first side has no memory, nor does the 20, but probablities dictate that given x amount of time both sides should be roughly equal. The same applies to roulette.

Just thought i'd throw my 2 cents in for what its worth.

[Poit]

Another thing, (im reading all the posts now, half way through) at the very begining you went on that the last spin has no bearing on future spins right... well whats with waiting for non repeaters 10 spin business... it shouldnt matter should it now? not by you reckoning of your understanding of roulette.

Dont mean to come across as rude, but I am rather confused.

[The Spiders Kiss]

OK
Bit confused now  ....I have been playin by tracking numbers til I get 10 non repeaters then betting those numbers to repeat in the next ten spins.........is this correct please?
If it is then I have had some success with that
TSK

[gingermolloy]

Finally seen this progression fail! Its one hell of a hit when it does!! Thankfully im not stupid enough to have been betting real cash!

See this link for the theory behind the progression used:

nolinks://vlsroulette.com/money-management/extremes-of-the-grand-martingale!-t5585/

ginger

[Poit]

Hi Gingermolly,
Care to answer my questions? Thanks

[alarian]

If what you said was truely correct you would see a single number hit dozens and dozens of time in a row, and this just does not happen. In theory yes, in real life, no.

Umm... The chance that a number will hit 6 times in a row is (1/37)⁶

Which is once in 2565726409 ... That's once every two and a half billion times.
Poit... You simply don't understand basic probability and should not humiliate yourself further on this subject.

I'm afraid I have to tell you once again that past numbers won't affect future ones.
Let me put it this way for you... Your little ventures in this area have been preceeded by millions of hours of research JUST like yours... And none of these millions of hours during over 300 years has lead to any solid conclusion that numbers (themselves) from the past, will tell you something about the future.

The fact that the hits even out are due to the fact of Binomial Distribution... Now please, stop wasting your time... Go to Google, make a search for "Binomial Distribution"... Read a little about it, try something new for a change.

I'm one of the good guys Poit. I'm your friend. I'm trying to free up your time and take you back from fairies and Santa Clause. I just want YOU to focus on something that's actually going to make you money instead of Gambler's Fallacy!

[Poit]

Umm... The chance that a number will hit 6 times in a row is (1/37)⁶

Which is once in 2565726409 ... That's once every two and a half billion times.
Poit... You simply don't understand basic probability and should not humiliate yourself further on this subject.

I'm afraid I have to tell you once again that past numbers won't affect future ones.
Let me put it this way for you... Your little ventures in this area have been preceeded by millions of hours of research JUST like yours... And none of these millions of hours during over 300 years has lead to any solid conclusion that numbers (themselves) from the past, will tell you something about the future.

The fact that the hits even out are due to the fact of Binomial Distribution... Now please, stop wasting your time... Go to Google, make a search for "Binomial Distribution"... Read a little about it, try something new for a change.

I'm one of the good guys Poit. I'm your friend. I'm trying to free up your time and take you back from fairies and Santa Clause. I just want YOU to focus on something that's actually going to make you money instead of Gambler's Fallacy!

If that truely is the case then why was molly going about betting the last 10 spun numbers? he was saying same stuff as you "last number dont effect future ones" blah blah.... so then whats the deal with last 10? shouldnt have any different to any 10 numbers by YOUR reckoning and molly
[/B]

[Poit]

-