If Progressions Don't Beat the House Edge, What Good Are They?

[Spike!]

Mother Nature is always right!!>>>

I don't think so. Mother Nature is a fictional charactor, she doesn't really exist. In nature, the fit survive and the weak perish. Progressions are crutches for poor bet selections, sugar coat them all you like. Your take on it is fairly unique, but sorry, no cigar..

[Bayes]

Because it is a natural based proportioned mathematical number line
You find that gogiven proportions EVERYWHERE in the plant and animal kingdom... and:

Rolf,

It's true - there are many examples in nature which seem to "fit" the Fibonacci pattern. But just a note of caution: don't bet the farm on it! 

The Fibonacci/Golden ratio is appealing, and is used by traders too. I'm more sceptical that it has any "magical" properties though.

It's not difficult to find examples of most any pattern or mathematical relation you want. Then some people make the mistake of supposing this reveals some mystical governing principle in nature. This is reinforced by ignoring equally important cases that don't fit the pattern. If the fit isn't very good, approximate or fudge the numbers. If some things remain that ought to fit but don't, just rationalize a reason why they are "special cases".

nolinks://nolinks.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/pseudo/fibonacc.htm

This in no way implies a criticism of your system or the fib progression in particular. Just that... it pays to be sceptical too. We all want to know the truth, don't we?

[Number Six]

"Mr J, you can read randomness too?" >>> You are TERRIBLE at dragging me in. lol I can tell you lose alot. How? You looking for an arguement is your substitute for winning. Granted, it puts nothing in your wallet but *THIS*, is your WAY of winning. Sad but have fun with it bro. BTW, your method again is what?  Ken

Mr J, this is not an argument. It's called dialogue. If you're too sensitive to take the pressure of a discussion why do you even bother putting yourself in the way of it?

The question is this: you think because you have "experience" you can win at a rate better than the expectancy - in fact, you have been claiming this, in a roundabout way, for a while. Spike thinks you can estimate the outcome of a 60-spin progression before you even start playing. You're willing to risk thousands of dollars on the numbers your "experience" tells you will hit. So, has this "experience" enabled you to read randomness or develop psychic abilities? Or, actually, are your progressions simply based on luck alone? The maths has repeatedly been proved to be absolute - why do you think it cares about your "experience"?

[Nathan Detroit]

Number 6,

I agree. It`s  all in one  neat package : gamblers fallacy and dumb luck.   Nothing more , nothing less and not genius  at work either.

Nathan Detroit

[Spike!]

>>The maths has repeatedly been proved to be absolute - why do you think it cares about your "experience>>

The math is based on a random bet selection and the premise that you can never do any better than that. Ken has proved to himself over and over again that when he uses a random bet selection, as opposed to the way he does it now, he loses. He's been proving this to himself for years now. You want to call it blind luck. I don't think Ken cares, a long as he can keep practicing his bet selecion and keep winning.

For myself, the 'absolute' math goes right out the window if you get even the tiniest advantage in making your bet selection. The math is based on faulty parameters, it doesn't take into account that you can change the math in your favor by understanding the nature of the random outcomes in the game you're playing.

[Number Six]

He won't keep winning, it's that simple. Not playing long progressions, anyway - there are too many real-world restrictions. You can't even do it by using a subjective bet or switching bets or using any procedure because the drawdown follows you everywhere and applies itself to whatever you're doing. I know this, it happens for everything that considers past outcomes. The fluctuation sticks to everything, then lies dormant and bites you in the ass just when you think it's safe to play again. When players begin to understand this, they then resort to skipping spins or waiting for a virtual sequence thinking that the variance will diminish. But the fluctuation skips when you skip and becomes active when you start betting again. This really leaves only two or three practical ways you can play through a drawdown and still come out ahead.

The thing about "experience" is, it's becoming an increasingly used reason for people to justify their apparent winnings. People win for a while with a system, then suddenly they think they're something special, as if the random game has forgotten about them. A lot of people are easily fooled by the random process of the game and the maths that goes with it. When you become complacent it's easy to think you have the game nailed. In reality the game has you nailed.

[Mr J]

@Number Six >> What was your method of play? If its cool with you, I would like to do some testing on it. Dont be too sensitve regarding this subject. Is your method private?  Ken

[Spike!]

He won't keep winning, it's that simple. Not playing long progressions, anyway >>

LOL! I'm laughng because thats exactly what I said to Ken over 4 years ago and we didn't get along for a couple of years. But he's proven his bet selection has legs, I'm very confident now that if he stays on top of it, he can keep winning. Bet selection is everything.

>> lot of people are easily fooled by the random process of the game and the maths that goes with it.>>

I agree. Thats why I use a
method
that changes as the random changes, to keep up with it.

[Mr J]

"The thing about "experience" is, it's becoming an increasingly used reason for people to justify their apparent winnings" >>> Usually I can meet a person half way, compromise a bit. In this case, I can go as far as 35% agreeing with Number Six on ONE aspect. I dont care HOW/WHY I'm doing well, whatever reason(s). I have my BELIEFS as to why and I ASSUME they are correct. Luck, at this STAGE I think is out of the question. Its too late in the game (pardon the punn) for luck, so IMO, it has to be something else.

Like my example I posted yesterday about the lady. Around 4K I would estimate......chips placed all over, no real reason, GONE. Another example >>> You ever see someone UP pretty good, around 1K. Everyone is cheering for the guy and real impressed with himself etc. Me, I just watch, hoping the guy STAYS at the table cause I know what will happen. Yep, slowly, slowly......first the $5 chips, GONE. Then cash in the greens and blacks, GONE! lol Ken

[Mr J]

"Ken has proved to himself over and over again that when he uses a random bet selection, as opposed to the way he does it now, he loses" >>> I'll tell you something I have done quite a few times, research I call it. You will have to believe me, or dont, thats your right and I'm cool with that. How many people do you know that are willing to give up $500 like its nothing? Me! lol I have gone to the casino to play BUT only based on a couple things....a small BR ($500) and picking ANY numbers.

To keep it fair, I only would choose 2 numbers per spin cause thats usually how I would play anyways. Its kind of nice, I dont bring my little notebook, not really that focused etc. It should not matter? I would bet ANY 2 numbers per spin. I think ALL times were a loss except once, I went home with a profit. Again, a coincidence? I know, I know, whats the definition of profit? If I'm up $20, do I leave and say, "gee, I guess I was wrong".  Ken

[Number Six]

To keep it fair, I only would choose 2 numbers per spin cause thats usually how I would play anyways. Its kind of nice, I dont bring my little notebook, not really that focused etc. It should not matter? I would bet ANY 2 numbers per spin. I think ALL times were a loss except once, I went home with a profit. Again, a coincidence? I know, I know, whats the definition of profit? If I'm up $20, do I leave and say, "gee, I guess I was wrong".  Ken

I have a friend who bets the same two numbers every time, all the time. I have stood next to him at the tables and watched him lose massively, pretty much like the woman you described. First the initial buy in goes, then the "hidden reserve", then it's credit cards. At first I tried to stop him when things were getting out of hand. Later I didn't bother, he didn't want to know. He doesn't always lose. A few years ago he was up 30k from that year. Another year he was up 10 or 15k.  I'd say now he's about even.

[Mr J]

I know regulars here at the casino, when they sit down, I ALREADY know the numbers they will bet! Thats fu***n sad I know ahead of time. They stick to the same numbers, based on NOTHING. I can NOT bet like that.  Ken

[BlackPearl]

 Ooh . . .

You are all soou wonderful in all your wisdom . . .

Ooh my oh my . . .

Sou many premature verbal ejaculations. . .

And almost all leads to new and unknown orgiastic hights !!!


This takes my breath away  . . .  


-----------------------------------------------


I think, You Roulette Masters of the Universe need to relax a bit...

Soo many ALPHA Cocks at one small place !!  --->  Who can stand that ?


Take a Bud (or two) and listen to a nice song, which is older then the wheel of fortune:

 >>  nolinks://nolinks.youtube.com/watch?v=lSwljC8EQeE&feature=related


Have a nice and roulette free sunday !!!
  ROLF

[Mr J]

"roulette free sunday" >>> Not me, I have a week off. Off to the casino and back in time for the Suns game!  Ken

[Noble Savage]

If Progressions Don't Beat the House Edge, What Good Are They?

They're good for giving you the illusion that you're a winner, for a while.

There is no such thing as "bet selection" in a true-random game, it's all in your head.

As a result, variance cannot be reduced in a true-random game. Which brings us back to the uselessness of progressions.

It's true - there are many examples in nature which seem to "fit" the Fibonacci pattern. But just a note of caution: don't bet the farm on it!  

The Fibonacci/Golden ratio is appealing, and is used by traders too. I'm more sceptical that it has any "magical" properties though.

Agreed, there's nothing "magical" about fibs.

In roulette, Fibonacci is just another nonsense negative progression.
In trading, the only reason the price might occasionally respect Fib ratios is because many traders base their entries/stops on them.

[Noble Savage]

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