Gamblers Fallacy (not what you think)

[MauiSunset]

Yes it was a tricky question, but you shouldn't assume that just because he was progressing then it implies GF. Like I said in an earlier post, it's about the REASON for betting a certain way. Sometimes your reasons may be valid, sometimes not. If it's not valid (ie; it doesn't correspond with reality) then it's a fallacy.

I can't think of a plausible reason why you should increase your bet on red which ISN'T GF, but you can't rule it out.

I use progressive betting all the time - however, I use the casino's money and view the amount over table minimums as the casino joining me and betting their money because they want it back.

Just a way of viewing the amount bet as a combination of reasons for that bet....

[Nathan Detroit]

There is  no such a thing as "THEIR" money. Savvy and experienced  players as  opposed to novices consider  money which  has crossed  from one  side of the table to  the side of the player  is  no longer  the " casino`s money".

It belongs to you the  player. It might be  considered excess of the bankroll but should  never ever be  considered the casino`s money.

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY Winnings.

[MauiSunset]

There is  no such a thing as "THEIR" money. Savvy and experienced  players as  opposed to novices consider  money which  has crossed  from one  side of the table to  the side of the player  is  no longer  the " casino`s money".

It belongs to you the  player. It might be  considered excess of the bankroll but should  never ever be  considered the casino`s money.

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY Winnings.

That's how I look at my BR - my money and their money.  Granted when I cash out after 25% in winnings that money becomes mine but it can't be used for gambling anymore.

Until I cash out, I just view my original BR as mine and anything more, in the BR, than that the casino's until I leave for the night.

I NEVER use my money for anything else but the minimum bet - if I bet more, then it must be the casino's that I'm risking since I could never bet more than table mins with my money.

I've never found a way of determining whether one bet has a better chance than another bet - they are all equal to me.  Since I must put up table mins to play the casino has to be my partner to bet any more - it's their money which temporary is in my BR.

That's how I view money management - you have yours...

[Mr J]

thanks bombus.

@zindrod

I understand v.b and bias wheels but have no need to learn it as im not close to a casino.

I only wanted to know what ap ment and now I know.

everyone has there beliefes and there is some very valid opinions in here, I for one dont care much about gamblers fallacy as its just a way to play roulette. I have my way and thats all that matters.

Dont forget, the AP ways you posted are ALSO gamblers fallacy. Just another form of it.

Ken

[Mr J]

Sooooo, can anyone name a 'type' of method that is NOT gamblers fallacy (or AP)?

Its kind of funny, definitions >>

A) AP (the broken dream)

B) Gamblers fallacy

C) Nothing else?

Ken

[gizmotron]

Sooooo, can anyone name a 'type' of method that is NOT gamblers fallacy (or AP)?

How about reacting to change? Change occurs when a win streak turns into something else. It's when streaks of red or black turn into perfectly choppy singles. At no time is an expectation that anything is due to happen used. This just happens. The trick is in seeing change happen. Fallacy is a kind of wishful thinking. It motivates a bet selection based on wishing. Playing the change is tactical. It's a deliberate reaction to similarities that are commonly occurring. It even has its own effectiveness and change component to it's own nature & methodology. In other words your effectiveness to target change has a quality to it based on observable effectiveness itself. Like layers of an onion. You peel back a layer and you have another one. Seeing deeply into reaction to change is an art form and an acquired skill. It has nothing to do with wishful thinking.

[Kelly]

How about Ken once and for all explained which part of advantage play is gamblers fallacy and WHY ? Be specific please, no ducking and diving. 

[Nathan Detroit]

The ultimate fallacy  of fallcies known around GG and here is  Turbo`s  "  the  FURTHEST  BACK" !!! ROFLMAO>


N.D.

[Kelly]

Waiting...............

[schoenpoetser]

Zinrod:My SSBmodel is also based on a 20 EC row.I have programmed the model with the Martingale betting and for a single zero roulette with EN PRISON.You can adapt the program to another betting scheme.After every hit you start with a new 20 EC row and you can play it continuous The chance for a 20 number row is 2^20 spins.

[Kelly]

How about Ken once and for all explained which part of advantage play is gamblers fallacy and WHY ? Be specific please, no ducking and diving.

Ken for someone like you who DEMANDS answers from specific persons you dont seem to live by the same rules for yourself. Or is it just that you cant answer ?

I go for the last, i couldnt answer it either.

[Nathan Detroit]

During the Cuban missile crisis  US  ambassador to the UN , Adlai Stevenson asked  the Russian counterpart about missiles in Cuba .  With no answer forth coming  he  said " well I can wait until hell freezes over.'

Maybe   you  too  have to wait until hell freezes over.

[Mr J]

How about Ken once and for all explained which part of advantage play is gamblers fallacy and WHY ? Be specific please, no ducking and diving.

Ken for someone like you who DEMANDS answers from specific persons you dont seem to live by the same rules for yourself. Or is it just that you cant answer ?

I go for the last, I couldnt answer it either.

I ALWAYS, ALWAYS answer (the best that I can)......hang tight coolbreeze, I'm in the middle of something.

Ken

[GogoCro]

In my opinion that all irevellant. In any case, system players follow the rules and they do not base roulette play on finding methods ,week spots in game in general and faulty tilted wheels for advantage.

[Nathan Detroit]

Gogo,

You got the right attitude. Like THE MAN says:" Never outsmart a wheel ."

N.D.'

[Nathan Detroit]

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