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1 Unit.

Started by I have cookies, February 26, 2011, 09:09:59 AM

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

I have cookies

This post is based upon gamblers fallacy and the outcome is still 50/50 no matter what the past result is.
Feel free to compare it with any other even money bet - flat betting.


1 Unit.

Numbers you can collect from random org when you use the software below - the data is 100% random and based upon noise.
Pick numbers and make the settings 1 to 36 and pick a sample of 10.000 trails and save it as a text doc.


Note:
We skip zero as we will deal with it when we speak about staking plan - flat betting.
Also note that you can only download sample's of 100.000 a day from random org.

Simulation Software:
It allow you to pick and run singels contra series or run series contra singels.
Just pick your file and click on next and you will get a sequence after that you can spin once and once until you reach your results - i will show you step by step.
It save a copy of your sessions and you can save the samples - give it a new name or the next run of 10.000 will overwrite the first output text doc.
Also put all your collected data from random org in same folder and name them using its date like 20100228.

Clarification:
The simulation software is based upon a littel different strategy then i will teach about - but is still valid and will help you pin point out 2.5 and 3.0 STD sequences of The Perfect State witch this topic is about.

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The Perfect State:
If we start with singels contra series then the sequence has to be dominating with singels outcomes and series are just allow to be present as singels events - that means that not two series after each others are allow among all does dominating singels - this means that the sequence contains only singels events of bout present formations.
That is The Perfect State if we can measuring it has a STD of 2.5 or 3.0 and we will only use the value 3.0.

Flat betting:
We are only going to use two to four attempts flat betting and try to succeed to gain +1 unit.
If the amount of the gain of +1 unit overcome the amount of attempts - we succeed flat betting.

The March:
We will use a specific march to capture other formations witch we expect to show in the future after we have a significant indication that there is a change present towards change.


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Math and calculation:
First I will illustrate this with a simple example.
If you have 14 singels events and 2 singel series present as a sequence then you calculate as follows:

First you have to get the Absolute Std when you calculate.
Then you take 14 - 2 = 12

Now we want to get the statistical std so we continue with...
14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the Absolute Std  whit the sqr

12 sqr 4 = 3,00

The Statistical STD 3,00

The values is 1 for singles events and 1 for series as singles events.

Dummy chart:


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The Law:
As every trail is independent with 37 degree of freedom - we can start measuring from any trail or position we like - that means that you can pick any window with a 3.0 std at any place during the distribution.
But note that you should apply a rule witch dictate that only a window with a 3.0 std with in the first 150 trails is valid or else it can become to late to capture change when it come to be present.

That is what we base our observations upon.

Probability:
It dictates that the waves of the distribution after a 3.0 std rapidly or slowly stop to grow and other formation as opposite effect and part of drawdowns of a 3.0 std start to appear and it comes in two different states.
One is that it stop and start to hovering at 3.0 with out any drawdown or grow stronger or you get a rapid drawdown as a direct opposite effect.
Note it can as anything also go back to back to certain degree - well nothing is due so sure it can hit a bench mark of 6.0 std - but that would mean a loss of two or four bets - just to give you a hint.

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Feel free to pick any date for me to download from random org from 2011 and i will run the simulations and post them here with results.

schoenpoetser

What is the mathematically definition of STD.For every system a mathematician can compute the E(pected V(alue). The EV depends on the kind of roulette. European wheel has a EV 1,35-2,7 and the American wheel 5,4 .Do you think your method can beat the house edge?If possible you have gold in your hands.

birdhands

Quote from: I have cookies on February 26, 2011, 10:35:41 AM
Feel free to pick any date for me to download from random org from 2011 and I will run the simulations and post them here with results.

Bring it on; this sounds interesting.

Mike

Quote from: I have cookies on February 26, 2011, 10:35:41 AM
Feel free to pick any date for me to download from random org from 2011 and I will run the simulations and post them here with results.

2009-03-31  :)

Nathan Detroit

In the final analysis  winning with systems, math, ranom selections,   are  just dumb luck .


Nathan Detroit

I have cookies

Quote from: Mike on March 01, 2011, 12:22:11 PM
2009-03-31  :)

Find it Mike  :) run it later tonight ...


/.\


MauiSunset

Quote from: Nathan Detroit on March 01, 2011, 12:38:28 PM
In the final analysis  winning with systems, math, random selections,   are  just dumb luck .


Nathan Detroit

Thank god for some sane words!

So how about the idea of spotting good and bad luck?

I gave the example of going to an online casino I use and the 1st spin gave a Green 0, lost the second spin, spin 3 was a Green 0 and so was spin 4.  3 Green 0s in 4 spins with a loser thrown in to mix things up.

Anyone have a rule of thumb when Lady Luck sits on your shoulder and when she kicks you in the butt??

In my case I closed the casino, came back in 1 hour, and everything played normal.  I spotted bad luck, it wasn't that hard; and did something about it - I did not try to fight it.....

MauiSunset

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