I have been thinking (!)

[Homeito]

Hello,

During these four months that I have been reading this and other forums I have read a LOT.
And I learned a lot.
And that has made me thinking... (!)

These are my personal thoughts and you may or may not agree.
If you like to comment you are of course welcome but please without flames:
I AM an "old-timer" who just recently has learned VERY new techniques.
New to ME.

So this is only what I have been thinking lately but I have not practised it in any way.
Not even theoretically... (There is nothing to practise yet)

One thing more: These thoughts are maybe only valid for single-zero roulette in a real casino.
With a real dealer. That is how I play.


* I think about how static methods can win...

I start to see that they may not: They must adapt to what is going on in one way or another.
Especially one thing I start to think I have to adapt to is the sequence of numbers.
Because there is one thing they all have in common: The dealer-/croupier-change.
They handle the ball and wheel different.

For example: Last time I was at the casino one dealer spun the wheel hard and then handled everything while it slow down and then trowed the ball.
While another spun the wheel rather slow just before the ball was throwed.

If I had been watching a sequence from the "hard one" and should have used some triggers or something on the "soft" one I do not think that would end well.

So one of my thoughts is: The dealer starts and finishes the session.


* I think about sleepers and repeaters...

I start to see that there may be many reasons besides the pure random that numbers may sleep or repeat.
A very simple reason would be a defect wheel.
(Not that I think that the casinos in Sweden have defect wheels but as a example)

I think like this:
IF there is a reason besides random for numbers to sleep they will probably go on sleeping.
IF there is a reason besides random for numbers to repeat they will probably go on repeating.

So one of my thoughts is: It is absolutely better to use repeating numbers than hunt the numbers that are sleeping.


* I think about the lay-out bets (Black... Single streets...) and why I should bet them...

That is what I have been doing most of the time.
But as those bets are only a table-configuration that has no connection to the wheel I start to doubt the value of such bets.

IF I am on the right way with my first two "thoughts" lay-out bets can not be what I want to make.
Because they appear spread on the wheel and therefore what the dealer does or whatever happens has no connection to the table lay-out.

So one of my thoughts is: If I want to try to take advantage of something besides random I have to bet single numbers.


* I think about progressions...

But not really.
I have since a long time been very sceptical to progressions. But I use them from time to time and then most "la Bouchère" types. Labby.
But I have seen so many times that progressions ruin the bank-roll a LOT earlier than the winning number comes.
I have myself been very conservative about progressions but I have seen... too much.

Any way. I think that this post from Marven is a excellent one about progressions:
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/money-management/which-progression-would-you-recommend/msg56038/#new
(Reply #17)
He writes the simple facts about positive and negative and flat betting and his own personal conclusion to which I fully agree.

And my conclusion is that a negative progression (up as you lose) will lose a lot when there is a loss...
A positive progression (up as you win) will lose a little when there is a loss...
And who can say how many losses in sequence there will be one day...

I do not think it is wise to use a negative progression in a negative game (like roulette -2.7%).

So one of my thoughts is: Do not use a progression.
At least not until there is proof that my selection has a positive advantage and then I will use a positive progression.

----------

OK this is not much for many of you and maybe ooold stuff also.

But I see all the time people building systems/methods around one or another variation of "Gamblers Fallacy" or "Wait until... then..."
(See my site where I debunk a few of them. There is a link in my profile).
And / or have static selections.
And / or not consider dealer-changes.
And / or betting sleepers.
And / or betting the lay-out bets.
And / or using a negative progression.

Well I think I am finished with that because nothing of this is newer to me than my own old-time methods that has only made me lose in the long term.

So...
----------

* I think about where to go from here...

Well...
* The session length is based on dealer-changes.
* I may consider repeaters. (But absolutely not sleepers)
* In any case I must adapt to what happens in one way or another.
* The bets are single-numbers.
* There is no progression.

I have read a lot about tracking the dealers by Kon-fu-sed (are you hiding?) that make sense to me.

So one of my thoughts is: Maybe some kind of dealer-tracking can be possible?


And I think I will wander about in that direction or a similar for a while.


Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

PS. I just had the "news" that I will be away for maybe a few days. To visit some friends in the south.
So do not be surprised if I do not reply during that time.

[VLSroulette]

Excellent post Homeito, true worth of "Roulette & Framework" debate.

Glad to see there is people actually thinking about how to improve their game and sharing the process.

Thumbs up!

[Homeito]

Hello,

Victor...

Thank you for your encouraging words. They are much appreciated.



All...

This post is only to correct/add to the first one:


Regarding progressions I should have wrote:

...
And my conclusion is:
A negative progression (up as you lose) will lose a lot when there is a sequence of losses and win small when there is a sequence of wins.
A positive progression (up as you win) will lose a little when there is a sequence of losses and win more and more when there is a sequence of wins.
And who can say how many losses or wins in sequence there will be one day...

I do not think it is wise to use a negative progression in a negative game (like roulette -2.7%).
...


Regarding lay-out bets I want to add:

All those pre-defined bets have trouble to incorporate the zero(s).
And why should the zero(s) be outside the system/method? It WILL win on some spins.
Therefore I think it is important to also use the zero(s) but of course not as a side-bet but exactly as every other number.
It has the same chance to win as every other number...


Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

[Homeito]

Hello,

A few days with the thinking-cap on has been very inspiring.
I think that I maybe have taken a small step...
But is it forward?


FIRST! Please believe me when I say that I have never seen this described.
However: I just can not believe that no one has described it before me.
So if you know who and/or where I would appreciate if you point me to it so I can give credits. I have no problem with doing that.


Repeating dealers... Do they exist?

Well looking at my data they do but it is clearly a loss if I just bet numbers to repeat.
They just do not repeat that much.

But if I expand the "repeat" expression to "come back to the approximately same place on the wheel"..?
If two numbers win and the pattern on the wheel looks like "- - X X - -" this could generate a bet for the section "- X X X X -".
I just bet the neighbours and the two winning numbers.

And if the pattern on the wheel looks like "- - X - X - -" this could generate a bet for the section "- X X X X X -".
I just bet the neighbours and the two winning numbers and the missing number in the middle.

And suppose I wait for such a repeater before I start the betting..?

But looking at the data again I can see that most dealers go forwards and backwards between winning wheel-sections...
And with this in mind I think:

If a pattern of two like the above appears I set that section in a "Prepare Mode" and wait one spin.
If there is no change to the pattern I start to bet.
As soon as there is a change to the pattern it is again in PM.

A "change" in this case can be that the pattern "grows":
"- - - X - X - -" becomes "- - X X - X - -".
Or hits (before the bet) so "- - X - X - -" becomes "- - X X X - -".

If there are more than one pattern (and they must not be "connected" because then it is just one pattern) I use a "first seen - first bet" policy.
But as soon as a pattern is changed it goes last in the queue and the next pattern is bet.


Here is a example:

       0 32 15 19  4 21  2 25 17 34  6 27 13 36 11 30  8 23 10  5 24 16 33  1 20 14 31  9 22 18 29  7 28 12 35  3 26
17:                          17                                                                                      : 
12:                          17                                                                         12           : 
  7:                          17                                                                    7    12           :  7-28-12 = PM
34:                          17 34                                                                 7    12           :  17-34 = PM. Bet 29-7-28-12-35 -5

17 wins on the first spin.
12 wins next. It is far away from 17.
7 comes and it is only one slot away from 12. This makes the section 7-28-12 (yes the middle number is included) go into Prepare Mode.
Number 34 is next. As it is a neighbour to 17 the section 17-34 is in PM.
And because the PM section 7-28-12 is not changed I start betting it PLUS the neighbours on each side = 5 numbers.


Another example:

       0 32 15 19  4 21  2 25 17 34  6 27 13 36 11 30  8 23 10  5 24 16 33  1 20 14 31  9 22 18 29  7 28 12 35  3 26
32:     32                                                                                                           : 
  8:     32                                            8                                                              : 
12:     32                                            8                                                 12           : 
30:     32                                        30  8                                                 12           :  30-8 = PM
14:     32                                        30  8                         14                      12           :  Bet 11-30-8-23 -4
18:     32                                        30  8                         14          18          12           :  Bet 11-30-8-23 -8
20:     32                                        30  8                      20 14          18          12           :  20-14 = PM. Bet 11-30-8-23 -12
25:     32                25                      30  8                      20 14          18          12           :  20-14 = PM. Bet 11-30-8-23 -16
36:     32                25                36    30  8                      20 14          18          12           :  36-11-30-8 = PM. Bet 1-20-14-31 -20

32 - 8 - 12 wins...
Number 30 wins on the fourth spin and makes the section 30-8 in PM.
Number 14 wins and the section is not changed so I start betting it and the two neighbours: 11-30-8-23 = 4 numbers.
18 wins and nothing is changed so I bet one more time.
20 wins and makes the section 20-14 a PM section. The bet-section is not changed so I bet again. The third bet.
Number 25 wins and it changes nothing: I bet again.

Then number 36 wins and it changes some things:
It is only one pocket away from 30 that I am betting and that makes the section expand to 36-11-30-8. And because it is changed it is in PM now.

And because the bet-section is in PM the next PM-section in line (20-14) is now bet plus the two neighbours: 1-20-14-31 = 4 numbers.


ALSO: A session bank-roll is 35u.
If I need to use more the session ends immediately.
I want to flat-bet. Or progress positive IF winnings build up. IF.


I think I have to point out that this is my THEORY.
I do not know if it is playable but I think that using a wheel-image would make it possible.

But that is not the point anyway - not yet: I want top establish if there is anything to it at all first.


I wanted to use the Wiesbaden spins to try it because my own records does not include dealer-changes.
But I see that a lot of the dealers make very few spins.
Why is that? What happens around the table when a dealer stops after four spins? And why are they doing it again and again?

In my casino I doubt that I have seen a dealer make less that 15 spins.
And also: The method as I describe it may need some spins before the betting starts and then some before the session BR (35u) is empty.
In my mind a dealer makes at least 15 spins...


A first Wiesbaden test of the method:

I used the first seven days for this year: 2009.01.01 - 2009.01.07
NOTE THIS: I skipped all dealers with less than 15 spins.

This short test ended in:

216 bets total
50 sessions
14 lost sessions

End result: +261 units.


Please take into consideration: I did it by hand so maybe there is errors...
To write a program that does this job was too complicated to be done quickly and maybe in vain. Not worth the job if it should show itself to be useless.

I attach the test result if you want to check it.
(I could not use the "code" tag because it was too big -  it worked fin in preview...)


I will think a bit more about this.
And maybe try it for real in the week-end.


Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

[Homeito]

Hello,

About what I tested...

I want a few things in some first tests:

* I want to use a method that is "dealer-dependent".
Dealers behave different. Therefore I think a session must only be one dealer.
- This is in place.

* I want to use a method that takes all numbers into consideration.
All numbers have basically the same chance to win and therefore all numbers must be possible targets. And the same selection must be used.
- This is in place.

* I want to use a method that is "non-static".
It must react to what happens on the wheel and not just make one and the same bet all the time. It shall be able to move the bets around.
- This is in place. In one way but more are of course possible.

* I want to use a method that does not hunt sleepers.
There are several reasons why a number does not win besides the normal random fluctuation. If some of these "forces" are working other numbers will hit more and therefore I will look for those numbers.
I will hunt repeaters and their neighbours.
At least for now.
- This is in place.

* I will not use a progression.
Therefore I limit the session bank-roll to 35 units. (If I win I want a profit)
- This is in place.


The way I see it I have got all I wanted in the described method.

But the question is still: Is it a good method so it will show profit from many sessions?

I think I have to investigate it further.
But I also think that it will take a while...

Comments?


Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

[Homeito]

Hello,

Hmmm... I see that there is not much interest in this thread.

Yesterday I had the opportunity to try this on five dealers.
Three won and two lost.
Unfortunately the three won sessions won rather late so the winning did not pay for the losses.
-7 units. Like €7...

I have also noticed a few things when I have made some investigations.
More studying needed.


* I also read about the "Fire" method. This is not far from it and that one was before me so:
This method is not quite the same as but similar to Gamlet's "Fire".
Thank you Gamlet.


Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

[VLSroulette]

Homeito,

Remember there are still present and FUTURE readers for which your information can become most valuable.

Keep up the good work 

Your friend,
Victor

[Natural9]

Earlier there were test being done on sectors and how they pertain to dealers and dealer signature does dealer signature exist some say it does some say it doesnt  it is hard to say it doesnt when dealers seem to throw lots of reats of put the little ball in the same area on the wheel I think sector methoda  pertaining to DS could win

Sector betting can and does win i think any opinions anyone

Regards Rodney

[mane]

Hi,

  Excelent post Homeito.  I must say your thoughts about the game are one of the best posts i´ve seen so far.

  I´ve been studying everything about roulette for the last months as well and i´ve come to almost the same conclusions as you have - That is much better to use positive progressions ; That you must use the wheel layout to bet sections.  That no fixed bet selection can beat the game.  That is better to bet repeaters because you never know if there is a reason (physical) for a number not to come, so is better to avoid sleepers.

  However there are some points where i differ from your opinion.  First i dont think dealers have much to do with results of the wheel and the repeating sectors we see i think are mostly coincidence and gambler falacy.  For instance the other day i saw 4 number repeat in a row in my local casino. . . that could very well led me to believe trere is a increased probability for a number to repeat, which is not the case - our brains like to see patterns and remember then, while forgeting the times where there are no patterns and that makes us belive there are more patterns than in reality exist.
  I was thinking about this "dealer signature" yesterday at the casino while looking at the ball and the roulette spinning. . . and really its impossible. . . the number of revolutions of the ball is random, the speed of the roulette is variable, the way the ball slows down and "chooses a number" is also random. . . so its my beleive there is really no dealer signature, and by the way any attemps to use "visual balistic" are also no good. . . unless you can place the bet after the ball lands on a number. . .


  So im beginning to think, with great sorrow, that there is no way to beat the game in a consistent way.  There will allways be the luck factor involved.  So in the last few days i´ve decides to use a positive progression, the Guetting progression, while betting half of the layout of the wheel as if it was an even chances bet.  That way i´ll make the most of my lucky strikes, while not losing much while i wait for it.  and i´m having good results so far.

 
  Thanks for your thoughs,

  Mane
 

 

[Homeito]

Hello,

Thank you for your opinions.
They are much appreciated.

Regarding DS I must say that DS is not really what I intend here.
What I have read about DS is that you have to know the number that passes the hand when the ball is throwed. And that is very simple if they use the last winning number.
In my casino they do not. They just throw the ball when they are ready so to say. And then it is a matter of seconds before "No more bets".
So to begin with real DS is not my game. But I understand the under-lying thinking and I like it very much.

(I am also going from plain "mathematical/mechanical" systems to this kind and I am not used to calculate and bet after the ball is throwed. And I am 60...)

The reason why I want to use the dealer is because I think s/he starts and ends the "useful sequence".
As I said above I have seen that dealers handle the wheel and ball very different. And therefore I think that a sequence does not just "continue" from one dealer to another.

Right or wrong but that is my reason to use dealers.
Today


Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

[Homeito]

Hello,

My investigations go on in a slow pace. But they go on.
I just thought I should tell you IF there is any one interested...   

The latest "discovery" is that I have sorted the data into too small groups so the numbers are not useful.
Not even 2 digits some times.

And then I used the same data that I use on my site: 700,000 spins...
I have to sort into larger groups and I am thinking of how.

And I have other things to do also: It is summer and (right now at least) a really lovely weather.
My garden is waiting for me.


Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

[sniper]

Hello Homeito,

Sorry for taking so long to respond to your post. I read over many times before I can really absorb your nice idea. I strongly believe your concept has merit and worth exploring further. I have done lots of research and noticed that numbers tend to cluster rather than spread out, more often than not. Any way, I believe it's not easy to see the logic behind all this. The most important thing here is not the mathematical explanation or logic. As long as it works why bother to know the reason. I believe we can pursue this method further. I am prepared to test out this concept in B&M casino and will let you know the outcome. Please do let me know if there is any new changes to your strategy as posted above.

Thanks & Regards

sniper

[I have cookies]

Hi Homeito what a nice post you made är du svensk? Are you from sweden?

Cheers

[sniper]

Hello Homeito,

After you start betting and one of your number win, do you start all over again with new set of numbers? If loss, do you continue till a win before you stop?

Regards

sniper

[thor]

hi homeito,

first i would like to say hi to everyone as this is my first post.  i am posting here because you seem to be on a similar thought train as myself.   especially that i don't mean to step on anyones toes or have to "dodge bullets" as phil hellmuth would say.   i consider forums to be a place to share and learn.   

with that said, i would like to share some personal experiences regarding dealers.   some background, i only play in casinos on live wheels.   i've also been trying to learn in a "vacuume" so what i share is all my own experiences.  this is not my preference to learn this way, but what i uaually hear is that roulette "cannot" be beat.   i guess thats one reason i'm here.  like most or all of us, i believe roulette can be beat.   and maybe a little of "i don't follow with the crowd" mentality

regarding dealers, homeito, because i play "systems/strategy play" or what ever you want to call it.   it becomes apparent to dealers who are paying attention and not just flirting with eachother or worried about their next break.  they will glance at me and watch my bets.   if i start winning with regularity they usually start to do something to distract me or change my "luck".   sometimes they will start to talk to me, but often they will start to change the way they spin the ball, either faster or slower.   it's comical!  the change is so drastic! sometimes they try to spin the ball so hard it flies of the wheel!  or spin so slow the ball barely makes a half dozen rotations.   i've actually had dealers ask me if changing dealers "affects" they way i am playing.   this could be annoying, but it doesn't affect me so i just grin back at them.   

anyway, i've taken up enough of everyone's time.   i hope i make some good connections here.

good luck to all
thor

[thor]

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