My Thoughts on Gamblers Fallacy - Welcoming Everyone Elses

[gingermolloy]

Homeito is right here.

There is a big difference between betting on a single spin, and betting on a sequence of spins.

It is all about the time at which the bet is placed.

If you are at a time before the first spin of a sequence of 3 and you want a probability that we will see 3 reds it is indeed 1/8.

However, if we are at a time that is after the second spin but before the third spin, and we want a probability that a red will come up, it is 1/2 (assuming no zero of course)

If you want to bet based on the 1/8 theory, you must bet a system that uses a progression.

This would mean that you were betting on a sequence of events rather that a single event.

This Is the way that I beleive roultte can be beaten.

[Mr J]

"What he is stating is a "PRE-bet" on the math. The math before an event and AFTER an event are different." >>> I answered like this quite a few posts back.  Ken

[rjeaton1]

Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

PS. Because I do not want to argue I really have nothing more to say/add about this so I will leave you alone now.

PS2. (edit)
I can add that while I have no experience of probability-math it has been my job for several years to read statistics...

I value your input HomeIto, and I do not consider what you've said to be arguing.  That is why I said I welcome opposing viewpoints, and to just keep it friendly (as you and everyone else has, for that I say Thanks Everybody!)

It is this kind of input from you and everyone else that helps me to "think outside of the box that I have created for myself" so to speak.  Without new input or new viewpoints, I'm pretty sure my thought process will stagnate and cease to produce anything of any value.  So thanks again!

[rjeaton1]

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