Beginners Guide Part 1 - Even Money Bets - Math and probability

[lucky_strike]

This is not a system this is how you calculate if you are a beginner and don't know how to.

This way you can see the weakness and strength behind the random flow.
There is many different ways to observe and use a random flow i will give some examples later.

That you can do is to see a random flow with in a time-frame and play with or against it or use both.
This is an excellent way to build triggers for trending.

You will get an nice understanding how the average random flow behave and how you get imbalance that goes up and down and how you find frames of hovering in periods.

There is two ways to calculate the law of series.

There is an common distribution where there is more of singles and less of series of two and so on.
This is just values and it is an different story how to use the values.

1)))
Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Keep going like that...

2)))
Singles has the value of 1 and series no matter size has the value of 1

Here is an example where we use alternative 2)))

RRBBRRBBRRBB R BBRRBBRRBBRRBB R BB = SD 3.0

How to calculate and get the value.
The Statistical Ecart or SD

Above there is 14 series and 2 singles.

Now the first thing is to get the difference between this events, the absolute ecart:

14 - 2 = 12

Now we want to get the statistical ecart so we add

14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the absolute ecart whit the sqr

12 sqr 4 = 3,00

Here is one example using alternative 1)))

RBRB RR BRB RRR BRB RR BBB RBRBR = SD 3.0

Here you have a chart for the statistical ecart or SD.
At the top you have the underrepresented figure, event.
At the left side do you have the overrepresented figure, event.



Cheers

[lucky_strike]

Well it is 50/50 when it hovering at zero point to what you are doing or the math you apply.

There only exist two ways of captureing vibrations of change that can be to follow the flow or play against the flow or bouth.

If you apply an educated guess or should we say an random element to your way of playing it will not produce a higher win ratio then any mechanical approch.

You can't find an true bias you can only find an fictive bias as an vibration of change when not hovering or after SD +3.0 depending on how you apply math and probability with the law of series.


Cheers

[Tangram]

Hi LS,

Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Keep going like that...

Here is one example using alternative 1)))

RBRB RR BRB RRR BRB RR BBB RBRBR = SD 3.0

Unlike alternative 2, I don't believe this is a valid way to calculate the SD. Can you tell me where you came across this scheme?

[lucky_strike]

The law of series and the metods playing singles contra series or series contra singles or series contra series or singles contra singles or any other combination you can think of.

Take any distributions statistics for 64.000 trails...

16.000 Singles
8.000 Series of 2
4.000 Series of 3
2.000 Series of 4
1.000 Series of 5
500 Series of 6
250 Series of 7
125 Series of 8

Cheers

[Tangram]

Yes, I know about the law of series, but how can you say that this sequence:

RRBBRRBBRRBB R BBRRBBRRBBRRBB R BB = SD 3.0

has the same SD as this:

RBRB RR BRB RRR BRB RR BBB RBRBR = SD 3.0

The first sequence has a higher dispersion than the second, so their SDs cannot be equal.

[lucky_strike]

Yes you are right.

This sequense I use Alternative 2 when I do the math...

RRBBRRBBRRBB R BBRRBBRRBBRRBB R BB = SD 3.0

With this sequense I do the math wíth Alternativ 1...

RBRB RR BRB RRR BRB RR BBB RBRBR = SD 3.0

They are equal.

If we would have made the last one with Alternativ 2 then we would just give the series a value of 1 and we would have 2.35.
We would have 14 singles and 4 series.

Cheers

[lucky_strike]

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