8 number = 50%?

[NoBody]

Pigeonhole Principle?

Haha...nice try Victor... 

Nope. It is not the pigeonhole principle...very close...

Pigeonhole is for spin 38 only.

This is on a repeat that is slighty more than 50%...

Any math expert here?

Winkel? WWM? Mr.J? TwoCatSam? Anyone?

By the way, anyone tested with numbers? How is the result?

We are talking probability... and if the percentage is true... we can try to gain "advantage" in long term...

That is "IF" the theory is true...

Still in brainstorming...

Regards,
NoBody ^.^

[Jish]

so why not wait for 14 idependant numbers and place a bet on each of them?

[NoBody]

so why not wait for 14 idependant numbers and place a bet on each of them?

Erm..Jish...

I don't think it works that way...

The 94% on 14 numbers doesn't mean you have 94% it will repeat in 15th spin!!!

It means you have 94% of finding a repeat for with a set of random 14 numbers. You still have a 6% that you will missed.

It is different.

Regards,
NoBody ^.^

[Jish]

The 94% on 14 numbers doesn't mean you have 94% it will repeat in 15th spin!!!

It means you have 94% of finding a repeat for with a set of random 14 numbers. You still have a 6% that you will missed.

It is different.

Regards,
NoBody ^.^

I understand what your saying, but i still beleive there is that chance of a repeat, according to the table there is a  96.32764700645760% chance of finding a repeat in 15 numbers, so if you had 14 individual numbers there would be a 96% chance of a repeat in the set of 15, who knows, its meerly a suggestion i will investigate it myself since your not interesed

[NoBody]

I understand what your saying, but I still beleive there is that chance of a repeat, according to the table there is a  96.32764700645760% chance of finding a repeat in 15 numbers, so if you had 14 individual numbers there would be a 96% chance of a repeat in the set of 15, who knows, its meerly a suggestion I will investigate it myself since your not interesed

Hi Jish,

I believe the 96% apply to the whole set! if you choose 15 numbers...then the percentage apply to the set(15 numbers)...

You must bet from the 1st number till the last number in order to "full utilized" the percentage..

Example:

for a 15 number set you have 96% of a repeat and 4 % of non repeat...

In order words, in 100 set, you will have 96 winning set and 4 losing set...

Your 96 winning set maybe winning on the 1st spin if you are lucky, or the last spin which is the 15 spin...

If you choose to ONLY bet after 14 individual number hit in the 100 set, you will missed out all the repeat within 15 spin...you will missed out...and you will have very high chance that your set will be the 4% ( no repeat in 15 spin)..

Forgive me for lousy explanation..i hope you understand what I saying...

This is the same with martingale...it doesnt matter how many "losses" you wait to start your progression...when you wait for the "losses", you will also lose the opportunity to win while waiting the loss...

Just my two cents..

Regards,
NoBody ^.^

[VLSroulette]

Good points NB

Understandable  .

[Homeito]

Hello,

As I was here posting earlier today, I also stumbled over this thread.
I had a couple of hours so I thought I should help you out...
(Simply couldn't resist)


You want to know the probability for you to hit if you bet 8 times: 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 numbers.


This is how I would calculate it:

The % of all your future bets (wins + losses) = 100%
The probability for a hit = n /37 where n is your number of numbers

- First bet: You bet 1 number and so have a 36/37 (97.2973%) to lose. You do and make a second bet.
- Second bet: You will be here in 97.2973%. You bet 2 numbers so you will have a 35/37 (94.5946%) chance of the 97.2973% to lose = 92.038%. You do and make a third bet.
- Third bet: You will be here in 92.038%. You bet 3 numbers so you will have a 34/37 (91.8919%) chance of the 92.038% to lose = 84.5754%. You do and make a fourth bet.
- Fourth bet: You will be here in 84.5754%. You bet 4 numbers so you will have a 33/37 (89.1892%) chance of the 84.5754% to lose = 75.4321%. You do and bake a fifth bet.
- Fifth bet: You will be here in 75.4321%. You bet 5 numbers so you will have a 32/37 (86.4865%) chance of the 75.4321% to lose = 65.2386%. You do and make a sixth bet.
- Sixth bet: You will be here in 65.2386%. You bet 6 numbers so you will have a 31/37 (83.7838%) chance of the 65.2386% to lose = 54.6594%. You do and make a seventh bet.
- Seventh bet: You will be here in 54.6594%. You bet 7 numbers so you will have a 30/37 (81.0811%) chance of the 54.6594% to lose = 44.3184%. You do and make an eighth bet.
- Eighth bet: You will be here in 44.3184%. You bet 8 numbers so you will have a 29/37 (78.3784%) chance of the 44.3184% to lose = 34.736%. You do and ... lost it all.

So you will lose all eight bets in 34.736% = You will win in 65.264%.


(You can do like this with many methods, to find the %)


GREAT!


But then; will it be profitable?

Let's suppose 1,000,000 tests.
And I will round everything to the gambler's benefit (so there will be small differences to the above).

- First bet: You bet 1u 1,000,000 times (= -1,000,000u) and get 36u back in 2.7027% (1/37) or 27,028 times (= +973,008u).
You bet 1,000,000u and got 973,008u back.
You are now down 26,992u. Your total bets so far = 1,000,000u so you've lost 2.6992% up to now.
The 972,972 times you didn't win, you make a second bet.

- Second bet: You bet 2u 972,972 times (= -1,945,944u) and get 36u back in 5.4054% (2/37) or 52,594 times (= +1,893,384u)
You were already down 26,992u and bet another 1,945,944u and got 1,893,384u back.
You are now down 79,552u. Your total bets so far = 2,945,944u so you've lost 2.7003% up to now.
The 920,378 times you didn't win, you make a third bet.

- Third bet: You bet 3u 920,378 times (= -2,761,134u) and get 36u back in 8.1081% (3/37) or 74,626 times (= +2,686,536u)
You were already down 79,552u and bet another 2,761,134u and got 2,686,536u back.
You are now down 154,150u. Your total bets so far = 5,707,078u so you've lost 2.701% up to now.
The 845,702 times you didn't win, you make a fourth bet.

- Fourth bet: You bet 4u 845,702 times (= -3,382,808u) and get 36u back in 10.8108% (4/37) or 91,428 times (= +3,291,408u)
You were already down 154,150u and bet another 3,382,808u and got 3,291,408u back.
You are now down 245,550u. Your total bets so far = 9,089,886u so you've lost 2.701% up to now.
The 754,274 times you didn't win, you make a fifth bet.

- Fifth bet: You bet 5u 754,274 times (= -3,771,370u) and get 36u back in 13.5135% (5/37) or 101,929 times (= +3,669,444u)
You were already down 245,550u and bet another 3,771,370u and got 3,669,444u back.
You are now down 347,476u. Your total bets so far = 12,861,256u so you've lost 2.702% up to now.
The 652,345 times you didn't win, you make a sixth bet.

- Sixth bet: You bet 6u 652,345 times (= -3,914,070u) and get 36u back in 16.2162% (6/37) or 105,786 times (= +3,808,296u)
You were already down 347,476u and bet another 3,914,070u and got 3,808,296u back.
You are now down 453,250u. Your total bets so far = 16,775,326u so you've lost 2.702% up to now.
The 546,559 times you didn't win, you make a seventh bet.

- Seventh bet: You bet 7u 546,559 times (= -3,825,913u) and get 36u back in 18.9189% (7/37) or 103,404 times (= +3,722,544u)
You were already down 453,250u and bet another 3,825,913u and got 3,722,544u back.
You are now down 556,619u. Your total bets so far = 20,601,239u so you've lost 2.702% up to now.
The 443,155 times you didn't win, you make an eightth bet.

- Eighth bet: You bet 8u 443,155 times (= -3,545,240u) and get 36u back in 21.6216% (8/37) or 95,818 times (= +3,449,448u)
You were already down 556,619u and bet another 3,545,240u and got 3,449,448u back.
You are now down 652,411u. Your total bets so far = 24,146,479u so you've lost 2.702% up to now.
The 347,337 times you didn't win, you lost it all.

End Result: -2.702%


(Again: You can do like this with many methods, to find the %)




And in reality...?

I checked my Wiesbaden spins...
I waited until I had 8 different numbers and then I bet them until I won or had 8 losses.
Then I started to look for 8 new different numbers.
Then they were bet in the order they were found.

Consider this string of results: 3 - 2 - 1 - 3 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 1 - 5 - 5 - 7 <--- This is eight different numbers.
To find it was 11 spins. Now, at spin 12, the first bet is on #3 because it was found first.
If no win, the second bet is on #3 + 2
Then #3 + 2 + 1
#3 + 2 + 1 + 4
#3 + 2 + 1 + 4 + 6 ... etc.


This is what I found in my files - 43,671 tests:

Level    Bets    Hits   Losses    Exit %*     Bet U      Won U      Net U       Net %**
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1   43671    1175   42496    2.6905%      43671      42300      -1371     -3.1393
    2   42496    2320   40176    8.0030%     128663     125820      -2843     -2.2096
    3   40176    3184   36992   15.2939%     249191     240444      -8747     -3.5101
    4   36992    4109   32883   24.7028%     397159     388368      -8791     -2.2134
    5   32883    4363   28520   34.6935%     561574     545436     -16138     -2.8737
    6   28520    4529   23991   45.0642%     732694     708480     -24214     -3.3047
    7   23991    4650   19341   55.7120%     900631     875880     -24751     -2.7481
    8   19341    4134   15207   65.1782%    1055359    1024704     -30655     -2.9046

*) Won tests in % of 43,671 started tests.
**) Net % of total units bet so far.


You won in 65.1782%.
...buuut...
End Result: -2.9046%



Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

[TwoCatSam]

May I fax that kiss to them?  Don't want to get the P I G hog flu!

Sam

[Jish]

Well that evidence puts my theory out the window, as with my own testing you were right Nobody, it does put you into that 4% alot more then you are not in it, oh well back to the drawing board

[NoBody]

May I fax that kiss to them?  Don't want to get the P I G hog flu!

Sam

Haha Sam...

You can give a rose instead.. 

Regards,
NoBody ^.^

[NoBody]

Hi Homeito,

Thanks a lot for the date and info...

Yes, I was aspecting that...

It is like winning the battle but lose the war...

You win more than 50%, however the amount of your wins could not compensate the total lost.

Thank you Homeito.

Regards,
NoBody ^.^

[NoBody]

-