@ bombus

[Bayes]

Hi bombus,

Remember a few months ago you were gonna have a crack at "educated guessing", a la Spike?
Just wondering whether anything ever came of it - what's your verdict?

[gizmotron]

A probability assignment is a numerical encoding of a state of knowledge.

But it is not an encoding of the state of recent circumstances and coincidences.

Just an educated guess.

[bombus]

Hi Bayes,

Nice to see you're still around the forum.

To be honest I have not given this exercise the effort it deserves. (Been too busy creating the Holy Grail and all... ).

What I can say is "educated guessing" is all about focus and intent, both very beneficial skills worthy of mastering for all walks of life.

At this point my own results are positive, but the trial is still in its infancy. The strategy I have employed involves an eight step up as you win progression used in conjunction with two concurrent mechanical selection criteria for the dozens & columns. The point being for me to guess when to switch between the two mechanical systems, and at what stage of the eight step progression to pull out.

My set up might be flawed (I don't think it matters what you choose to bet on), but so far I can confirm that there are far worse ways to play roulette.

Cheers.

[Bayes]

Thanks for the feedback bombus. 

I've dabbled in it too, over the years. There does seem to be something there; as you say, focus and intent are what's important, and awareness of what you might call the "total probability field".

It's pretty hard work though, and I'm not convinced it's worth the effort (my results have been positive too, although not conclusive). Personally I prefer a semi-mechanical approach which uses a combination of limited progressions and a certain amount of ad-hockery in bet selection.

[Bayes]

But it is not an encoding of the state of recent circumstances and coincidences.

It could be - coincidences may be just that, but in any case they're your coincidences, not necessarily anyone else's.

[schoenpoetser]

Bombus what do you mean with mechanical selections?I have started my career as an engineer  and I can not imagine me a mechanical divice to predict the results of the roulette.

[Bayes]

Looking up "mechanical" in my online dictionary turned up a few definitions. This one most fits the current context:

3. Done as if by a machine; uninfluenced by will or emotion;
proceeding automatically, or by habit, without special
intention or reflection; as, mechanical singing;
mechanical verses; mechanical service.
[1913 Webster]

So I suppose you could call "educated guessing" betting WITH intention and reflection, as opposed to betting "mechanically".

[gizmotron]

gizmotron - "But it is not an encoding of the state of recent circumstances and coincidences."

It could be - coincidences may be just that, but in any case they're your coincidences, not necessarily anyone else's.

I agree it could be. But that takes a lot of work too. You are right on target correct that it's my coincidences that I see. It comes directly from the way I relate to them, the syntax I have given the evidence, and the belief in any supporting similarities that lead to make a guess, to take a chance on it.

[Nathan Detroit]

Let`s  call a spade a spade: It is really  a " CALCULATED BETTING "procedure   . Nothing more , nothing less .


Nathan Detroit

[gizmotron]

Let`s  call a spade a spade: It is really  a " CALCULATED BETTING "procedure   . Nothing more , nothing less .

Bet selection calculation is not the full story. So there is a little more to it than just procedure. Unless of course you include everything involved in it as procedure. Then yes, it's "nothing more , nothing less."

[Nathan Detroit]

Gizmo,

I like  your interpretation: Yes   the  entire " ENCHILADA" should  be  applied. Otherwise  it`s  only half c**ked.  


Nathan  Detroit

HAPPY  WINNINGS!!!

[schoenpoetser]

Please who can explain me what is meaning with:
Calculated betting

ENCHILADA

educating guessing

mechanical selection

I know a lot of roulette but this terms is AKADABRA for me!!

[bombus]

Hi Schoey,

What these terms mean is that with a well thought out and well practiced approach you will have the bee's knees, the ant's pants, the cat's pajamas of roulette strategies at your beck and call.

A mechanical selection or system is a strictly rule based method with no subjective input from the user.

The whole enchilada is an Idiom taken from the Spanish meaning "the whole thing", "the complete package", "the kit and caboodle", etc.

Educated guessing is purported to be a skill developed by individuals whereby they can consistently guess results better than the odds would mathematically allow.

A calculated betting procedure is anything you want it to be, so long as you calculate something.

[pins]

every body sees different patterns.  if you could pick one number right out of 50 guesses you are on a winner. you could have 200 guesses and not pick a winning number.  i have found that every so often, nothing goes right nand you can not pick a winner. but give it a try, you might be luckier then me.

[cheese]

Educated guessing is purported to be a skill developed by individuals whereby they can consistently guess results better than the odds would mathematically allow.

The key word here is 'skill'. How do you develop a skill? Practice and perseverance. "Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan "press on" has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race" Calvin Coolidge

[cheese]

-