100 spins

[ll l ll l lll ll]

I have an idea in my head on how to play red/black over 100 spins, but first I need some assistance. 

We all know red and black is very close to a 50/50 bet.  But....

In 100 spins, what is the likely hood someone will see 99 red and 1 black?  Or 90 red and 10 black?  Or 80 red and 20 black?  or 70 Red and 30 black?

I am interested in finding out the highest uneven distribution possible. 

[money13]

I can beat Heads and Tails but I cant beat red or black.

[money13]

I hope you will success.

[ll l ll l lll ll]

Say for example a worse case scenario is we play for 100 spins, we are playing 1 unit per spin on nothing but black.

After spin 50 we have encountered nothing but 50 red spins and we are down -50 units.  Say we then play another 20 spins at 1 unit on black, and again the wheel has spun nothing but red and we are now down -70 units.  That is 70 straight red spins and we are down -70 units. (improbable)

If we now raise our bet to 3 units per spin on black for the remaining 30 spins, and we get 30 blacks in a row.... we finish at +20 units.

Using this approach; we could flat bet a certain number of spins.  If we "picked" the correct color (R/B), we would quit after set number of spins with a profit.  If we are down into the negative, we then raise our flat bet and continue a certain number of set spins and quit in profit.  If we are still down we raise our bet further.  This is almost like a 4 step Grand Martingale over 100 spins.  

Bet 1 unit per spin, spins 1-25.  Quit if in profit
Bet 2 units per spin, spins 26-50.  Quit if in profit.
Bet 3 units per spin, spins 51-75.  Quit if in profit.
Bet 4 units per spin, spins 76-100.  Quit if in profit.

This is an example, and would need to be modified.  To many a "unit" does not seem like much, but if you are playing with $100 chips as your "unit" or $1,000 chips as your "unit" you are on your way.

[Kagatori]

I dont see how you can? Are you looking for a progression or syetem that could survive a string of for example 9 Reds or blacks, which would be manageable, is that what you are working on?

[ll l ll l lll ll]

I dont see how you can? Are you looking for a progression or syetem that could survive a string of for example 9 Reds or blacks, which would be manageable, is that what you are working on?

No!  I'm looking at long term distribution.  I'm not looking at the short term, i'm looking over the course of 100 spins, which is about an hour in a half at a busy casino.  Over the long term there is balance.  Yes we may get 9 reds in a row, but often what you will see, is in the next 20 spins there will be 15 black and 5 reds.  At the end of 100 spins, the majority of the time red and black are very close to even.  I'm looking for worse case scenario's to try to determine how to exploit this.

[Kagatori]

Ah I see, could be tricky, but good luck! Ill try and give it some thought.

[Davemd]

Hi Barcode,

some food for thought for you,

have you thought about playing the decision before last over 100 spins ??

[ll l ll l lll ll]

Yes, I have alot of different methods for bet selection that are far better than simply picking red or black.  I'm just using playing a steady of red or black as an extreme example.

[I have cookies]

I have an idea in my head on how to play red/black over 100 spins, but first I need some assistance. 

We all know red and black is very close to a 50/50 bet.  But....

In 100 spins, what is the likely hood someone will see 99 red and 1 black?  Or 90 red and 10 black?  Or 80 red and 20 black?  or 70 Red and 30 black?

I am interested in finding out the highest uneven distribution possible. 

Well i have some ideas - why not play random against random using your previos 100 trails with your future 100 trails.

[guido1]

No!  I'm looking at long term distribution.   I'm not looking at the short term, I'm looking over the course of 100 spins, which is about an hour in a half at a busy casino.   Over the long term there is balance.

Be careful!
There "can" be a balance and more than likely it will be the percentages rather than the absolute numbers.

Yes we may get 9 reds in a row, but often what you will see, is in the next 20 spins there will be 15 black and 5 reds.   At the end of 100 spins, the majority of the time red and black are very close to even.   I'm looking for worse case scenario's to try to determine how to exploit this.

You are asking a binomial distribution question where there is just success or failure.
an online calculator can be found HERE: hxxp: stattrek. com/Tables/Binomial. aspx
I just use excel.
with 00 wheel and 18/38 for even bets the mean (average) will be 47. 4 and the standard deviation is ~5. 0
so about 2/3 of the time the results will be between 42 and 52
19 out of 20 or 95% between 37 and 57
99. 7% (3sd) or 997 out of 1000 trials the range will be between 32 and 62.

Depends on what you are looking for.  anything less than 32 per 100 would be a rare event, but could still happen

Hope this helps.

[HansHuckebein]

I somewhere read that in 100 spins an even money bet doesn't appear less than 40 times. still the problem remains that you don't know when it appears within the cycle.. 

cheers

hans

[guido1]

I somewhere read that in 100 spins an even money bet doesn't appear less than 40 times.  still the problem remains that you don't know when it appears within the cycle. .  

cheers

hans

I agree it is about "when" but it is also about the short term distributions.  Betting for a particular distribution can be rewarding if your guess is close.  No better off than a flat bettor and just betting one side if you are wrong.

18/38; 40 or more 0. 94300237  39 or less 0. 05699763 or about 1 in 18, not that uncommon.
18/37; 40 or more 0. 96683460  39 or less 0. 03316540 or about 1 in 30, again not that uncommon. 
I ran a 1 million player simulation and showed the results for "black" hits for 100 spins
here is the distribution:

Code Select Expand

Hits freq freq/100
25 4 0.00%
26 7 0.00%
27 16 0.00%
28 38 0.00%
29 64 0.01%
30 173 0.02%
31 361 0.04%
32 624 0.06%
33 1226 0.12%
34 2215 0.22%
35 3526 0.35%
36 5858 0.59%
37 9106 0.91%
38 13743 1.37%
39 19560 1.96%
40 27105 2.71%
41 35554 3.56%
42 44697 4.47%
43 54655 5.47%
44 63556 6.36%
45 71396 7.14%
46 77212 7.72%
47 79773 7.98%
48 78935 7.89%
49 75400 7.54%
50 69474 6.95%
51 61036 6.10%
52 51967 5.20%
53 42541 4.25%
54 33164 3.32%
55 24747 2.47%
56 17994 1.80%
57 12809 1.28%
58 8407 0.84%
59 5434 0.54%
60 3293 0.33%
61 1965 0.20%
62 1120 0.11%
63 615 0.06%
64 335 0.03%
65 158 0.02%
66 77 0.01%
67 35 0.00%
68 13 0.00%
69 6 0.00%
70 5 0.00%
71 1 0.00%

Close to expectation where 47. 4 is the mean (average) and 4. 99 the standard deviation.

4 players saw black only 25 times in 100 spins.  If they bet black all 100 spins they lost 50 units total.

Enjoy

[colbster]

The biggest concern for me is not the soundness of your idea, but the frequency that it will give you any meaningful, playable opportunities.  Standard deviation for the 100 spins R/B is 5, meaning that just over 2/3 of your series will be withing 45 and 55 of either EC that you choose.  If you are at this point near a true 50/50 distribution, there will be nothing for you to play while you watch 100 spins pass (which can take a long time, depending on how you play: ie, live or RNG).  2 standard deviatons indicate that 95% of all 100 spin series will give you between 40 and 60 of each EC, giving you very little opportunity to recover any losses you take at the beginning of your betting period.

[HansHuckebein]

@guido

thanks for providing the simulation data. 

There are quiet a lot of sessions below 40 hits.  I think it shows one more time that statements about roulette that come along as "facts" are mostly myths. only believe them after they have been tested seriously by yourself.

cheers

hans

[HansHuckebein]

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