100 spins

[ll l ll l lll ll]

I agree it is about "when" but it is also about the short term distributions.  Betting for a particular distribution can be rewarding if your guess is close.  No better off than a flat bettor and just betting one side if you are wrong.

18/38; 40 or more 0. 94300237  39 or less 0. 05699763 or about 1 in 18, not that uncommon.
18/37; 40 or more 0. 96683460  39 or less 0. 03316540 or about 1 in 30, again not that uncommon. 
I ran a 1 million player simulation and showed the results for "black" hits for 100 spins
here is the distribution:

Code Select Expand

Hits freq freq/100
25 4 0.00%
26 7 0.00%
27 16 0.00%
28 38 0.00%
29 64 0.01%
30 173 0.02%
31 361 0.04%
32 624 0.06%
33 1226 0.12%
34 2215 0.22%
35 3526 0.35%
36 5858 0.59%
37 9106 0.91%
38 13743 1.37%
39 19560 1.96%
40 27105 2.71%
41 35554 3.56%
42 44697 4.47%
43 54655 5.47%
44 63556 6.36%
45 71396 7.14%
46 77212 7.72%
47 79773 7.98%
48 78935 7.89%
49 75400 7.54%
50 69474 6.95%
51 61036 6.10%
52 51967 5.20%
53 42541 4.25%
54 33164 3.32%
55 24747 2.47%
56 17994 1.80%
57 12809 1.28%
58 8407 0.84%
59 5434 0.54%
60 3293 0.33%
61 1965 0.20%
62 1120 0.11%
63 615 0.06%
64 335 0.03%
65 158 0.02%
66 77 0.01%
67 35 0.00%
68 13 0.00%
69 6 0.00%
70 5 0.00%
71 1 0.00%

Close to expectation where 47. 4 is the mean (average) and 4. 99 the standard deviation.

4 players saw black only 25 times in 100 spins.  If they bet black all 100 spins they lost 50 units total.

Enjoy

Thank you for your test.  Let's take the test where someone who bets nothing but black for 100 spins and it only appears 25 times.  Say for convience sake, the first 75 spins are red.  We are now down -75 units.  If we were to now bet the last 25 spins at 4 units per spin instead of 1 unit per spin (+100), we would come out AHEAD +25!

This is what I'm after.  Taking the absolute worst possiblities, the absolute worst distribution, and still managing to make it a overall winner after 100 spins (flat betting).

Now, it is highly unlikely we will see the first 75 spins simply red, and then bet the remaining 25 spins black.  We don't know when the black will start hitting.  So our goal would have to be to flat bet a LARGE % of the spins and evaluate the results.

If we flat bet red for 50 spins at 1 unit each spin and we are in the negative by a large amount....... We can then bet the remaining 50 spins at a higher unit to try to catch the wave of the blacks that are coming.

[HansHuckebein]

I went down that road before but never reached my destination/ a solution. of course this doesn't proof there could be one.  

as long as we don't know when the wins appear I guess it's kind of like those "evil wins" in a progression, the ones that raise our stakes but never take us back to an overall plus. in the end we would have been better off and lost less if the wins hadn't occured at all.  

cheers

hans

[medo]

No!  I'm looking at long term distribution.  I'm not looking at the short term, I'm looking over the course of 100 spins, which is about an hour in a half at a busy casino.  Over the long term there is balance.  Yes we may get 9 reds in a row, but often what you will see, is in the next 20 spins there will be 15 black and 5 reds.  At the end of 100 spins, the majority of the time red and black are very close to even.  I'm looking for worse case scenario's to try to determine how to exploit this.

and one day you will see 64 blacks 36 reds in first 100 spins...and then you starting confidently ride on reds,,,,but again the same thing......62 blacks 38 reds.....and what are you doing next...probably rising to 2 units next 100 bets.....well you had to rise again on 3 units next 100 bets cause you lost once more.....and bingo you LOST AGAIN..........MY FRIEND,100 spins is far to small sample.I remember few years back was playing B/E vers.R/O and once R/O took dominance 58/42 in first 100 spins.......it took me almost a week to recover....playing it from first to the very last spin every night on the same wheel..........thats why I have written about your idea....don't play like that.

[Madiba]

With my 'Holy Grail' system and using FLAT BETTING ONLY im averaging 10 units per 60 bets placed over 100 spins.

Im willing to prove it via testing - send me 25 sets of 24 numbers. I will then tell you where to bet for the next 12 spins for each set.

You can then judge for yourself

the search is over ...

[Madiba]

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