Fooled by Randomness

[toey]

As a person who has lost a lot of money on the wheel and is now in debt trouble, I urge everyone here, particularly those who are still in search of and/or designing systems, to read 'Fooled by Randomness' by Nassim Nicholas.

It is a book about the share markets, but it is equally applicable to the game of roulette (reason why I bought it). It explains hindsight bias, the role of randomness and chance in life, and how reducing your exposure to randomness in life is the ultimate way to go.

I'm not telling people to stop betting or to stop making systems, but I am just encouraging everyone to read this, hopefully to give you some insights or a different perspective on the game of roulette.

[TwoCatSam]

toey

Well, that was quite an admission.  Thanks.  We all need to be reminded we are playing with fire.

Another good book is "The Drunkard's Walk".  This author also talks about how hindsight sees the wins and not the losses and how we base our decisions on that erroneous premise. 

Sam

[toey]

Wow, thanks TwoCatSam. I've been looking for books similar to this, I will definitely look for it once I'm finished with my Randomness gem.

[bliss]

It seems to me that to say that some event  is "random" is only to say that you're lacking information on the cause(s) of the event. People used to look at the stars and see only random movement, until some clever bloke came along and spotted the "rules" which governed the movement, making them predictable. Closer to home, someone who has data which suggests a roulette wheel is biased can be playing a (to some extent) predictable game, whereas others at the table who don't have such knowledge are playing a "random" game. Thus, randomness is a function of your state of knowledge, and is not intrinsic to an event. So, IMO, to say that you are "fooled by randomness", says something about human error, or cognitive bias, (at least, that's what it should say), it doesn't mean that we are wasting our time, and stupid, to try to find meaning in apparent randomness, only that we should be more careful in ascribing meaning to apparently random events.

nolinks://nolinks.geocities.com/rational_argumentator/probabilitylogic.html

[winkel]

As a person who has lost a lot of money on the wheel and is now in debt trouble, ...

Your title of the topic is a contradiction to your first sentence.

You have lost... The randomness didn´t fool you.

What you fooled was the selfish idea that you would win and wouldn´t lose.

If you had had an eye on the second possibility you would have stopped before applying for a debt.

If people lose they always give responsibility to someone else: The casino, the game, randomness ... but never ever to themselves.
reading books will not solve this problem - only change of mind.

br
winkel

[toey]

I'd at least urge you guys to skim through the book first 

[Carlitos]

...........well at least someone who is honoust about his losses on roulette. I have read and heard lots of stories about people who win very fast at roulette and then think they can do it again but there is were the trouble starts......


This is the game of roulette, you can win very fast and loosse everything as fast.



Thats why i'am very disciplined when it coms too roulette. When i do not have an good system i do not play. If i have system of which i think perhaps it is something i first test it with low money. If it works with an dollar it also works with more or not.





Carlitos 

[ryan08]

there is no such thing as a random event, everything happens for a reason, cause and effect, apply this rule to the game of roulette, (eg, wheel bias, cause; the bias, effect; one set of numbers will hit more than others, find the cause, take advantage of the effect and you have yourself a winner. when designing a system this is the main criteria to make a winning system


but that doesnt mean e/c's and dozens system wont work, we all know that whatever system you play with these is after hitting the enevitable, eg- if playing red/black, we know if betting red constantly, no matter how many blacks come up it is ENEVITABLE that a red will appear sooner or later, the ideal way to win would be to use a huge progression but we all know that is impossible with table limits and limited br etc. so the way to win is to find the balance that will will win more than it loses, it is out there trust me, you need a EUREKA moment to find it though, my advice is try as many things as you can possibly think of, dont look for the obvious and dont look to play every spin.

[pins]

every thing happens by chance. there is no reason for anything.  unless you believe in a god looking down and pulling the strings. these are the choices. their was nothing and all of a sudden creation. the universe always was. who created god. man. good luck with the roulette. tell me the reason the ball lands in 32.
so the people that back it collect.  somebody up there does not like me.

[Proofreaders2000]

I think it is wise to be cautious about money management playing roulette. Like drinking, I think it is a good idea to have a "designated driver", someone who doesn't play or at least has the self-discipline to stop you if you risk more that budgeted.  I learned that the hard way on wall street.

[Proofreaders2000]

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