do I have a real significant edge?

[WhiteKnight]

Hey guys,

After testing/developing many systems over quite a few years and not many faring too well, today I've developed something that although I've tested only 20,000 live wheel spins, has won 4700+ units FLAT betting over 3 months of test data.  Is this a real edge to exploit the casinos with?  Since it's flat betting, it seems to be quite a significant amount even it is only 20,000 spins.  Could this be expected with normal fluctuation?  What do you roulette gurus think?

Regards,
WK

[Kelly]

If you bet 1 unit pr spin on the even chances, +4700  in 10000 is really something. Im afraid you need to be a bit more specific.

[bombus]

If you bet 1 unit pr spin on the even chances, +4700  in 10000 is really something. Im afraid you need to be a bit more specific.

Ditto.

[WhiteKnight]

sorry, guess I should have stated that this is betting on singles not ECs, actually it is a bet on one single number at a time, 1 unit per spin...just rechecked the spin count, for some reason I thought it was 10,000, it was actually just over 20,000 spins...i'll edit the first post to reflect that.

[bombus]

So you have placed 10000 bets and won about 409 times?

That's pretty good - you should be hitting about 270.

The z score is still not out there so I could see things turning around easily.

Another 10000 spins under your belt wouldn't hurt.

Why don't you look into coding the system and give it a good test? - Is it mechanical?

[Kelly]

47% is always a huge edge, but the spin sample is too small.  I would say at least 100.000 placed bets or more.  Try to get someone to program it for you.  Handtesting will kill you and is really disapointing when you reach 47.000 spins and it goes into red figures.

[bombus]

Ok so it's 20000 spins - half as good and twice as long.

Disregard my previous post.

Cheers.

[WhiteKnight]

I didn't do these 20,000 spins tests by hand in one day   , I programmed it, but I only tested with all of the live wheel DB spins that my program had recorded in the past.  I know I can d/l more live wheel spins through RX, but not from DB I dont think and that is probably where I would play the system.  the system is mechanical but there is a random aspect to how it chooses the number to bet.  every spin there is a bet placed as well.  

I just ran the test again 3 mins ago and it ended +5012 units over the 20000 spins, even with the random aspect of choosing the bet, so it's very close to the first result.

[Jean-Claud]

Real spins are real spins.
It doesn t matter if they are coming from DB or from an other casino....as soon as they are from a live wheel its the same...
exept if u are playing BIAS.Then u really need the specific wheel data

[WARRIOR]

I didn't do these 20,000 spins tests by hand in one day   , I programmed it, but I only tested with all of the live wheel DB spins that my program had recorded in the past.  I know I can d/l more live wheel spins through RX, but not from DB I dont think and that is probably where I would play the system.  the system is mechanical but there is a random aspect to how it chooses the number to bet.  every spin there is a bet placed as well.  

I just ran the test again 3 mins ago and it ended +5012 units over the 20000 spins, even with the random aspect of choosing the bet, so it's very close to the first result.

IF YOUR GETTING THE SAME RESULTS THAT TO ME SOUNDS LIKE A WINNING METHOD W.

[reddwarf]

Hi WhiteKnight,

First of all: if you use excel for your simulations, why do you not use the rand() function? It is pseudo random (actually a really bad one), but is you can't beat pseudo random, forget about real random (by the way,there are free plug-ins for excel that use 'merseme twister random generators'.

Secondly: Somehow this links with a topic on this forum I'm preparing: depending on the stop-loss and stop-win, in many cases flat betting single numbers minimizes the probability on a gamblers ruin. If you use a strategy that is similar to:
1. pick a number randomly and bet 1 unit
2. keep on doing this till I lose  X, or till I win Y, or till I reach Z spins
3. independent of what happened next, do the next session
4. but in your statistics you can all spins (instead of sessions)

you have the be careful: you'd better count the number of sessions. I once "earned" over 10K before the whole thing collapsed!

If you have another type of strategy: Good for you!

Red dwarf

[WhiteKnight]

Hi reddwarf,

I do not do my simulations with Excel, rather I have created my own program to conduct fast simulations with.  The program I have developed utilizes a random function (pseudo also) and the number that the function selects is only used within specific boundaries.

In my testing of the 20,000+ spins, I did not have a stop win or stop loss or spin limit per session, I just wanted to see how far I could take it without imposing any conditions such as those, but it is something that I have considered.  Once the first number is chosen, the betting is continuous throughout the session, and changes based on various criteria.

I have converted the program to play on DB live wheel and over 6 sessions running over nite, it is up +600 units flat betting so far...usually the sessions are around 400-500 spins because I turn off the program when I wake up.  I'll see how far I can take this.  I hope this does not collapse

[Pactole]

Hi WhiteKnight,

Do you have any update about
your system?

Did it collapse or is it still a long term winner?

[WhiteKnight]

Hey guys,

Sorry to get everyone's hopes up, but unfortunately I discovered a small bug in my programming, however, it makes a big difference in the end results.  I guess the few sessions I tested on DB the past few weeks were down to luck...finished around +500 units in those tests but after fixing the bug and running the long term tests of 20,000 spins, the result is not so good.

Anyway, for those interested, the system involved the following:

1) wait 37 spins
2) find the hottest numbers within the last 10-12 spins
3) pick the hottest number in the last 10-12 spins as the number to bet, if there is a tie, choose between the tied numbers randomly
4) choose next bet (go back to step 2) when any of the following happens:

a) the bet is won within 40 betting spins
b) the bet loses in more than 40 betting spins

I think that is it...pretty simple, but it will not win in the long term unfortunately

[Boo_Ray]

why wait 37 spins? 

[Boo_Ray]

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