What about all these dodgy biased wheel stories?

[john_solitude]

Let's try to tackle this delicate question with the facts:

FACT 1

Yes, there is a documented story of a guy by the name of Joseph Jaggers.
He hired six clerks who would sit around all day in the casino of Monte Carlo.
The clerks only had to keep track of the roulette outcomes.
After Jagger made his calculations, he came to the conclusion there was a bias on one wheel (bias means not every number or sector has the same chance of coming up, so some numbers or sectors will appear with a higher or lower frequency than mathematically expected).

Jaggers headed out to the casino, played the same sector over and over and made a huge profit.

The casino counterattacked by switching the wheels overnight. Jaggers came in the next day and lost a serious amount of money, believing he was still playing the same biased wheel.

Jaggers remembered there was a scratch on the wheel he played the day before.
He looked around, found the wheel and started to make a profit again.

The casino counterattacked by switching the seperators between the pockets overnight. The next day Jaggers lost again. However, before Jaggers went bust he cashed in with a serious amount of money and lived happily ever after on his winnings (the last sentence is presumed, not fact  


BUT NOW, WHAT MOST SOURCES PROMOTING BIAS PLAY DO NOT TELL YOU:

FACT 1

The story of Joseph Jaggers dates from 1873.

As with any strategy that could seriously undermine the mathematical edge of the casino, the casino's counterattacked:

These days, in every regular modern casino the outcomes of a roulette wheel are statistically monitored in real time or with regular intervals. This actually means the casino has a large sample of outcomes, so they will spot a real bias long before the player does.

Casino security knows that sophisticated players or gambling syndicates (these are a group of players that join up in a team) could take advantage of bias, so casino's are very aware of this strategy.

FACT 2

Joseph Jaggers hired six clerks to collect a large sample of roulette outcomes (think thousands).

Why? Because being an engineer himself, he knew that a small sample of outcomes would not be sufficient to come to the conclusion there was a bias present.

Roulette is a so called 'random independent event'. On any given spin, the number of possibilities never diminishes, so as mathematically is expected, on some occasions there will be combinations of outcomes of which the probability is (very) low (let's say four times the same number in a row), but these outcomes can still be a result of randomness and not bias.

To distinguish between both (random OR bias) one needs a large sample of outcomes, otherwise it's just a wild guess as any. For those who are interested in this topic, you'll have to read up on the topics 'statistical significance' and 'confidence level'.

There are more typical roulette terms explained in our website section 'Roulette ABC':
nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/abc.html


FACT 3

Today's wheels can not be compared to the wheels in 1873. Professional manufacturers of roulette wheels use space age technology. Instead of screwing in pocket dividers, manufacturers now use continous molds and low profile seperators. Jaggers was certainly playing on a different type of wheel.

Outcomes of wheels are now statistically tested before they end up in a casino and they are monitored while in operation in the casino.

On second hand markets you'll find professional roulette wheels, but that's also the reason why they are on the second hand market and not in the casino: they were thrown out before they did not meet the high standard the modern casino's set for their equipment.

This is also the main reason why you shouldn't easily believe bias stories by people who for instance provide in videodemonstrations to 'prove' their statements . The video could have been edited or the device or strategy they use, is demonstrated in a home environment on a wheel which could be biased. So, in any case, before you spend your money on some expensive strategy or equipment, always ask the seller to prove his statements in a real casino on a serious amount of spins.


FACT 4

A small sample (lets say a couple of hundred spins) is not sufficient to do serious statistical research.
This would be the equivalent of running a poll to determine who is going to be president, while you only interview the members of one family. The smaller the sampler, the more (wild) guessing. Also, one could guess right, but the positive result could still be the product of chance or in other words being lucky, not because there was a bias present.


FACT 5

A typical casino will use two statistical calculations to monitor for bias:
standard deviation in combination with the chi square test.

A large standard deviation (let's say 3 SD) on a small sample is no sufficient prove of bias,
because this could have been the result of randomness as well.


YOU CAN FIND THE CALCULATIONS YOU NEED TO DO:

In our FREE download pdf guide 'Roulette Fact and Fiction'
nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/download.html#JSFFguide

OR

Make a small donation and you'll receive our Excel spreadsheet,
which automates all the calculations you need (like the casino does)  

nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/download.html#JSExcel

[Mr J]

"Today's wheels can not be compared to the wheels in 1873" --- BINGO, much agreed. I still laugh (yes, laugh) at stories on a couple other boards regarding this subject. These posters simply, lie, nothing more. There is no bias, there never will be a bias wheel in the future, period. Maybe in your buddies basement mini-casino, you might find one but certainly not in a highly regulated casino. I have enough common sense to NOT even explore the idea. Ken

[Mr J]

January of 2008. At least I'm consistent.   

Ken

[Nathan Detroit]

" Yes, Virginia there is a Santa Claus".

N.D.

[iggiv]

Ken, i have to simply disagree with u. Won't go deep into this.

[Mr J]

Thats cool. Its your view and I 100% respect it.

Ken

[iggiv]

i agree though that biased wheels are harder and harder to detect with tremendous technological progress in recent human history. it used to be as simple as that:

nolinks://nolinks.pagebypagebooks.com/Jack_London/Smoke_Bellew/Shorty_Dreams_Chapter_I_p1.html

to make long story short, the guy saw biased wheel caused by a heat source nearby. Casino owners were not that smart a century or two ago.

[Mr J]

I have posted that many times before. I agree that certain AP tactics most likely have worked IN THE PAST !! Now? Good luck.

Like I said, the casinos are simply not going to sit back and watch AP guys take their money. They ADJUST with newer technology etc.

AP these days, is great in THEORY or looking at past stories......but NOT NOW. Just my opinion.

Ken

[iggiv]

it's an old 'sword and shield' dilemma. it's like developing antiaircraft or antitank weapons and aircraft and tanks as well. Both things are being developed. No doubt that AP methods are being developed too.

[Nathan Detroit]

So what Ken is trying to explain is that those  old  AP guys  on   cold  winter nights  are sitting in front of a  fire place  drinking hot toddy and reminiscing the goold old days  of the biased wheels.

They know  for sure those  days will never  come again. Mary Hopkin Those were the days

Snowman would  just melt reading this.

N.D..

[Mr J]

......and dealer signature BTW?   

[iggiv]

So what Ken is trying to explain is that those  old  AP guys  on   cold  winter nights  are sitting in front of a  fire place  drinking hot toddy and reminiscing the goold old days  of the biased wheels.

They know  for sure those  days will never  come again. Mary Hopkin Those were the days

N.D..

Queen - These Are the Days Of Our Lives HD

[Nathan Detroit]

Habits  by dealers are unavoidable. That`s  why it is   adviseable to get up while on a winning streak and a  dealer change occurs.

But don`t get spooked that the dealers are aiming for a section. That`  paranoia which requires professional help.

P.S. I have  seen a guy blasting a casino to the  tune of  $ 5,000 with a starting capital of   only $ 50. He hit the ( 0/00   wheel ) sections  around 7 -12 and  25 - 30 until he  hit them with GREENS  straight up and Quads and the  dealerjust kept spinning on .

A new   pit boss  looked at the players  record  and then  asked him  how much  was yopu  buy in ? The  player responded $ 50.

Well he walked away with hi WINNINGS.

N.D.

[iggiv]

it is possible that DS is a part of bigger picture, some kind of nature phenomenum,  which could be called "bias" or something of a kind. Call it "human bias", temporary wheel bias, whatever.

it is just an idea

[Pedro]

 Things happen in clusters, it can be called AP, DS. but it happens and if we are sharp enough to hone in on these clusters at the roulette wheel winner,winner.

[Pedro]

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