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Main => Bet Selection => Topic started by: manistra on March 13, 2008, 02:06:09 PM

Title: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: manistra on March 13, 2008, 02:06:09 PM
Hi. I found this community very interesting  and i am willing also to contribute to it.
I will try to share with you results of my study, on possibilities of Markov models and Markov chains application in various
types of games of luck. This study will be focused on roulette game mostly.
I am going to use some probability basics for sake of explaining ideas (hope you dont mind it)

Markov chains are mathematic model beeing studied in context of probability, binary sequence prediction, lossless data
compression algorithms, genetics etc.  For some basic info about Markov and its models pls goggle it a little.

There is common agreement on academic level that, while markov chains can be applied on systems with random variables, it can
not be directly applied with systems with independent events, such as pure games of luck.
That beeing said, someone can write off Markov model instantly before we even start to study it
with roulette. By definition, no deterministic system can exist without a measurable state space.
A series of coin flips or dice rolls have no measurable state space because they are independent events.  In other words,
random and independent events have no relevant previous or continuing context and therefore they constitute
stochastic processes. But, there exist other reasons why i applied it, (yes i am curious person, but that is not ONLY reason)
And the reason is: roulette is NOT pure random game. Before you start laughing hard, please define me RANDOM system ? How we
can define system as pure, non deterministic random system ?

I believe that roulette is PSEUDO random generator.
It has input variables (spin rpm, elevation, force of ball injection and 100 other super sensitive variables, but it is
deterministic system, although for normal observer, it remains purely stohastic). Therefore, this system is 100% reliable for
our research, as any other deterministic system. So I was guessing if there exist any possibility that we can use some
technique to reverse-engineer roulette spin process without any use of forbidden devices (visual tracking systems, ballistics
systems etc) This is probably impossible task that lies ahead of us :(
BUT i believe that there exist real possibility to use mathematical models (and software) legally to find "dealer bias" or
"dealer mark" (not wheel bias) on roulette. This is field where I believe Markov chains can be of big help, and where we can
get some profit from it.

In next post, i will show you an example how I applied Markov chain analysis on roulette. It is applied on
real Wiesbaden spins (not applicable to RNG generators)
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: manistra on March 13, 2008, 04:21:22 PM
In math, Markov chain is being called upon Andrey Markov, and it denotes array of system states. In each moment system state

can transform in the new state or it can be left in the same. Changes of state are called "Transitions".

A Markov chain is a sequence of random variables X1, X2, X3, ... with the Markov property, namely that, given the present

state, the future and past states are independent. Formally,

        (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2Fe%2F8%2F9%2Fe89a6f0462cae0b7434bc547cdc08161.png&hash=f6a2eb0c7de76def6f076fa9df30cdf1ad80c584)

The possible values of Xi form a countable set S called the state space of the chain.

Markov chains are often described by a directed graph, where the edges are labeled by the probabilities of going from one

state to the other states.

Now lets assume we have observed roulette spin outcomes and we registered following state array:

R, R, B, B, B, R, B, B, R, R, R, B, B, B, R, B. (*)

In my tests, i divided real wheel layout on left and right side. When ball stopped into left side, it is R, otherwise it is B. when 0 hits, it is a loss.

In many problems, we want to predict future states on next observation or later observations. We can not determine exactly

next state, but according to observed states, we will try to define probability window that system will find itself in

particular state.

For this observation we ask following questions:

1. If observed system is now in state R, what is probability that in next observation state will be R ?
2. If observed system is now in state R, what is probability that in next observation state will be B ?
3. If observed system is now in state B, what is probability that in next observation state will be B ?
4. If observed system is now in state B, what is probability that in next observation state will be R ?

Lets try to answer this questions. From state array (*) we can see that system was in state R 7 times. In 3 cases, system

state left
in state R, and in 4 cases it transformed to B. Therefore we can conclude:


P (,,System was in state R and stayed in state R") =(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2Fe%2F9%2F8%2Fe98391f0121102233bec3dc90b603adc.png&hash=0439f1d926644fed1c66edc64e6d015419dad88d)

P (,,System was in state R and transformed to  B")=(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2F7%2Ff%2Fc%2F7fc75296a9d464b2e13d00e44b0faa01.png&hash=40621915801ef75f1f67d5b2829a0ac41e8d8488)

Also
P (,,System was in state B and stayed in state B") =(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2F4%2F6%2Fd%2F46d6cf0939822d7e435436e5e9f33d8c.png&hash=f43cf2f2c816227435fa3f00bcd7179cc62b7793)


P (,,System was in state B and stayed in state B") =(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2F8%2Fe%2Fa%2F8eae32b8c97043c72e170829f4067188.png&hash=e3deae1c8449a3411761c0ccf3475c6277f3f5ad)


Information about transformation probability from one state into another can be presented in matrix algebra
This matrix is called matrix of transformation states and usuallay is marked with capital P, and its elements are indexes
pi..j from array of all possible states (as we are observing binary system we have 2 possible states)
Matrix P can sometimes be presented in hierarhical way (trees) when we are using markov models for analysis
of random walk events


For each state (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2Ff%2Fa%2Fc%2Ffac5d1a475005b17a03dbbc696a37990.png&hash=fe38d1f5a71380c312eb17b9174a9f8f824e2f8d) Trensformation

probability is conditional probability that system will be in state i if system was in state k

If we apply this on our example than we can mark

            (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2F1%2F7%2Fe%2F17e40417667c83ec563a17f343b8605d.png&hash=90363eb271f574ede63798dd0c68c056f7dd3bc6)

Lets calculate probability (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2F7%2F9%2F9%2F79964419104536ca99f2533a4891ba85.png&hash=0bbdadee3bbd99c2990c1f9bd4a339898250b8b1) that system

will be in state R or state B on next observation. Applying total probability formula we are getting next system linear

algebra:

            (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg01.picoodle.com%2Fimg%2Fimg01%2F4%2F3%2F13%2Ff_markov2m_ba2a312.jpg&hash=fa0892d05190180aca690a31adf178ab0bbff193)

If we mark vector p1 as out start state vector and woth p2 our next observation state vector, then system can be written in

next
short form:

p2 = p1P

If P is transformation matrix for Markov process, and p1 vector of starting state, then

p2 = p1P

is vector for next observation.

In our example it is:

                (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg01.picoodle.com%2Fimg%2Fimg01%2F4%2F3%2F13%2Ff_markov3m_ed678d0.jpg&hash=c67e4edc8d2afc67c63286ec0c345ae9d16804b8)

To conclude, if system is in start state R with probability(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2F7%2Fe%2F8%2F7e8a85255ee2e8cde4afb6f3b08d47e1.png&hash=5f502a807c8b787cac6a9f0f647f4b24b211db71) on first observation
and with probability (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2Fd%2F5%2F9%2Fd591d9ac5f7ff4b725c3893a63f547ce.png&hash=ec680d47061a592b8085ccd919dc322404bd3ac3) in state B on first observation, than we can
claim that system will be in state R with probability (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fmath%2F1%2F1%2F1%2F111e043e5bc183cb8f77dca47321c3b4.png&hash=ffceed2f3550a6d61e30f930d5ebf363d5aff2c6) on our next observation

I applied this analysis with c program on Wiespaden spins from year 2004 (10 continuous states tracked in row, 1000 sessions, 80 spins max per session, progression 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,  max loss 20, max gain 50, no bet if prob < 0,75 otherwise bet.)
with following results:


           (https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg29.picoodle.com%2Fimg%2Fimg29%2F4%2F3%2F13%2Ff_markovm_81e4d13.jpg&hash=dd7ef6f3533db834e9e8720819d3157cbe6e527d)


I can not say more about perspective of this thing, but results are there and I believe it deserves further attention.

Stay tuned for more results and new Markov trickery!





Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: hermes on March 17, 2008, 10:13:33 PM
Too much math! Most of us are not geniuses in math but if somebody could make a software of Markov Chain where the math will play in background and only give us a sing "to bet or not to bet" (Shakespeare) that would be a winning situation for all of us.
Thanks
Hermes
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: manistra on March 18, 2008, 05:35:25 AM
I agree this seems to be complex, but IMHO, it is not so complex math.  I have software for Markov analysis but it is
not ready to go public as it in early development phase. Currently i am working on implementation of Markov on
other non binary decisions (dozens, streets etc). When i will have anything that works i will certainly publish it in Software section in this forum. Anyway, don't expect that you will ever have software that will always tell you winning decisions. It is not possible, with Markov or any other software.  8-)
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: hermes on March 18, 2008, 07:15:30 PM
I don't expect from software miracles but if it would be a 50% right it is excellent. Progression would take care of the other 50%.
I am looking forward for your software.
Thanks, Hermes
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: admin on March 18, 2008, 08:39:56 PM
Manistra, feel free to send it to vlsroulette @ gmail.com

I'll host it gladly  [smiley=thumbsup.gif]
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: kawa4711 on May 22, 2008, 06:06:10 AM
Hi, Manistra,
I`ve found in a german speaking forum some interesting ideas from @Edgardo and @ winkel (he found a lot of interesting roulette phenomens like this:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Quote:
If in 3 coups the first and the 3rd Number have a difference of 0, 1 or 2
then these Numbers will be bet.
we bet the lower number -2 and the higher number +2 places

for example

if there had been
22
12
20
we found 22 and 20
we place bet on 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 (difference 2 set 7 No.)

if there had been
21
12
20
we would bet 18 19 20 21 22 23 (difference 1 set 6 No.)

if there had been
20
12
20
we would bet 18 19 20 21 22 (difference 0 set 5 No.)

bet only the first following coup

br
winkel
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


in this excellent thread of @ Edgardo, who has detected a markov-like phenomen:

nolinks://nolinks.roulette-board.de/index.php?showtopic=6186&hl

best regards

kawa4711

Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: JLP on May 22, 2008, 12:58:34 PM
Hi Edgardo & Kawa,

Edgardo seguís usando el sistema posteado en el foro Alemán???
Qué resultados te dió??
==========================================

The system is simple and it seems silly but anyone

Having statistics can verify.

It consists of the following.

It begins to write a series and the first number doubles when on average between 8 and the ball 10. We play their neighbours 2 without playing No.

Which turned and write on one side -2 without charge is still playing
Scoring from -2 to double by shooting until the second No. apartir now staking 4 chips by shooting 2 neighbours first and the second 2 and is still scoring accumulated reaching -36 chips.

If you arrive (and if it did not levy comes fast about 9 or 10 balls). Reinstatement begin missed 9 balls and hoping to re-double the first No. and repeat the operation siguiente.Si charged also becomes start.

On average collected should double efforts to losses and
will win that an average of 18 tokens for every 36 that are lost when there comes the juego.Pero it curious that this mathematical relationship of
2-1 is not so in reality the game in our favor between 3 and 4 to 1.
Unbelievably when the ball turns a No. looking again that same No.
But as Figure 2 predominates on the widely 3 will start
Leaving neighbors of those No. which doubled its value and is very short
Term why not interested in the management lasts so few shots because the
Roulette is cortísimas gusts. (repeat not seek pointers).

The only problem we have with this system is that there is a hole
Which is the salidor and that will give us a lot of anger in this triple when the ball between us, but not to get nervous that in the long run
One result will have a monthly benefit favor. between 400 to 1000 chips. Playing sessions 108 balls per day, we will demand preferentemente.Eso
About 3 and a half.

Greetings to all readers and hope reviews and tests performed on actual statistics.

========================================

El Sistema es sencillo y parece tonto pero todo aquel
que tenga estadisticas podrá verificarlo.
Consiste en lo siguiente.
Es el antijuego del Sist.Fortaleza.
Se comienza a anotar una serie y cuando dobla el primer Número en promedio entre la bola 8 y la 10.Se juegan sus 2 vecinos sin jugar al Nº
que dobló y se anota en un costado -2 si no se cobra se sigue jugando
anotando de a -2 por tiro hasta que doble el segundo Nº apartir de ahora jugamos 4 fichas por tiro 2 vecinos del primero y 2 del segundo y se sigue anotando el acumulado hasta llegar a -36 fichas.
Si se llega (y esto si no se cobra viene rápido unos 9 o 10 bolas).Se vuelve a empezar dejando pasar 9 bolas y esperando que vuelva a doblar el primer Nº y volver a repetir la operación siguiente.Si se cobra también se vuelve a empezar.
En promedio las gestiones cobradas deberian duplicar a las perdidas ya
que se ganaria un promedio de 18 fichas por cada 36 que se pierden cuando no viene el juego.Pero lo curioso que esta relación matemática de
2-1 no es así en la realidad del juego y nos favorece entre 3 y 4 a 1.
Increiblemente la bola cuando dobla un Nº busca otra vez ese mismo Nº
pero como la figura 2 predomina sobre la 3 ampliamente van a empezar a
salir los vecinos de esos Nº que doblaron y lo que vale es el muy corto
plazo por eso no interesa que la gestión dure tan pocos tiros ya que la
ruleta es de rachas cortísimas.(REPITO NO BUSQUEN PUNTEROS).
El único problema que tenemos con este sistema es que queda un agujero
que es el salidor y que nos va a dar mucha bronca cuando triplique y este la bola entre los nuestros; pero a no ponerse nervioso que a la larga en el
resultado mensual tendremos un beneficio a favor.Entre 400 a 1000 fichas.
Jugar sesiones de 108 bolas por dia preferentemente.Eso nos demandará
aprox 3 y media.
Saludos a todos los lectores y espero comentarios y pruebas realizadas sobre estadísticas reales.


12
20
 15
 20 20 14*1
 28 -2
 6 -2
25   -2
 6 -2 6 34*27
12   -4
1    -4 19
 24 *****
23  
16  
 26
 31
 31
32  
25  
18  
25   25 2*17
 10 -2
 15 -2
 17 -2 29
1    ***
36  
21  
 17
 13
 29
27  
32  
1    
 15 15 32*19
 4 -2
27   -2 27 13*6
3    -4
21   -4 21 4*2
12   -6
0 -6
 20 -6
14   -6 -36
 8 ****
14  
 24
 6
7    
 33
27  
 20
5    
12   ****
9    
 20 20 14*1
14   -2 33
 11 ****
0
12  
9    
 24
25  
 2
 31
 10
7    
36  
 35
5    
 4
 29
 29 29 18*7
1    -2
 28 -2
 24 -2
21   -2
9    -2
 6 -2
 22 -2
5    -2 5 10*24
 6 -4 6 34*27
 35 -6
27   -6 3
 24 ***
 4
 6
 28
12  
14  
 29
23  
9    
 15
 35 35 12*3
 22 -2
12   -2 33
 20 ***
 24
 13
 29
 26
 31
 6
3    
 10
 22 22 9*18
18   -2 33
7    
1    
 20
34  
9    
3    
 20
 28
 26

Ganancia total 114
===========================================

Cheers,
JLP.-
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: JLP on May 22, 2008, 01:44:17 PM
Hi,

Here is a test of the neighbours system :

DUBLINET
DEALER TOM

4
8
12
19
11
23
5
17
17  ---->bet 34-25
5    ---->bet 24-10
31
10  W
--------
8   ---->bet 23-30
27
12 ---->bet 35-28
9
30  W
--------
23  ---->bet 10-8
4    ---->bet 21-19
19  W
--------
32
2
0
9
33
27  ---->bet 13-6
29  ---->bet 7-18
24
20
33
31
34
18  W
--------
4
2    ---->bet 25-21
34  ---->bet 6-17
13
9
33
23
12
25  W
--------
10
25  ---->bet 17-2
36
19
34  ---->bet 6-17
33  ---->bet 1/16
1   W

Cheers,
JLP.-
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: MattyMattz on May 22, 2008, 04:22:09 PM
Hey JLP,
this looks interesting but I can't figure out how we get a betting trigger.  I understand that we bet the neighbours once the trigger is met, but I'm lost when it comes to finding that trigger.

Thanks,
Matt
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: JLP on May 22, 2008, 05:05:31 PM
QuoteHey JLP,
this looks interesting but I can't figure out how we get a betting trigger.  I understand that we bet the neighbours once the trigger is met, but I'm lost when it comes to finding that trigger.

Thanks,
Matt

Hello Matt,

The trigger here is when 1 number repeats.
When this happens we bet the 2 neighbours of that number that have repeated.
You see in the example that 2 numbers have repeated, so bet neighbours of that 2 numbers ----> bet 4 numbers.
When we win we stop and wait for another number or numbers to repeat and follow.

Cheers,
JLP.-
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: MattyMattz on May 22, 2008, 05:36:20 PM
Thanks JLP (I can't believe I didn't notice that...)

This is very intriguing... I will speak/study more on it later, as I'm heading out the door right now.

Thanks again,
Matt
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: Edgardo on May 22, 2008, 11:05:59 PM
Estimado y solidario colega JLP, disculpe que no le respondi antes, ya que recien veo la consulta suya.

En el Foro Aleman, como dices, empezamos a trabajar en las cadenas de Markov y su relación, con las dobles repeticiones de los números, pero lamentablemente, solo se hizo público el comiezo de la discución, luego lo siguieron trabajando en privado, y no me dejaron ingresar, por lo que no se en que estarán, o si ya ha llegado a alguna conclusión.

De todas maneras, el tema se veía muy prometedor.

Un saludo cordial, Edgardo.
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: kawa4711 on May 23, 2008, 06:24:53 AM
Hi, to all
to answer some questions:

@winkels rouletteideas were these:

QuoteQuote:
If in 3 coups the first and the 3rd Number have a difference of 0, 1 or 2  
then these Numbers will be bet.  
we bet the lower number -2 and the higher number +2 places  

for example  

if there had been  
22  
12  
20  
we found 22 and 20  
we place bet on 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 (difference 2 set 7 No.)  

if there had been  
21  
12  
20  
we would bet 18 19 20 21 22 23 (difference 1 set 6 No.)  

if there had been  
20  
12  
20  
we would bet 18 19 20 21 22 (difference 0 set 5 No.)  

bet only the first following coup  

br  
winkel  

This means, that it doesn`t matter if the number is a neighbour of another number on the green (table) like, 17,18 or on the wheel like 0, 26

Its easier to follow the number on the table like 17, 18 or 20,22 etc.

If a number is thrown
for example  

if there had been  
22  
12  
20  
we found 22 and 20  
we place bet on 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 (difference 2 set 7 No.)  

the trigger is 20,22 because there is only one number missing between 20 and 22 (its the 21) and the numbers 20 and 22 are within 3 coups.


if there had been  
21  
12  
20  
we would bet 18 19 20 21 22 23 (difference 1 set 6 No.)  

here the trigger is 21 and 22 (there are no numbers between the 2 neighbours and the 2 neighbournumbers are thrown within 3 coups

if there had been  
20  
12  
20  
we would bet 18 19 20 21 22 (difference 0 set 5 No.)  

so the trigger is 20 (2 times the same number) within 3 coups.

Conclusio:

If in 3 coups the first and the 3rd Number have a difference of 0, 1 or 2  
then these Numbers will be bet.  
we bet the lower number -2 and the higher number +2 places  

I hope I ve explained the idea correctly

Best regards

kawa4711

Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: TwoCatSam on May 23, 2008, 11:27:01 AM
kawa

You have explained this method perfectly.  For once, I can find no question to ask.  This should be easy to run through a few numbers and see what shakes out.

Sam
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: JLP on May 23, 2008, 12:44:32 PM
Hi Kawa,
Here is a little test of what you refer :

DUBLINBET TODAY
DEALER KATEJ

34
0
22
26
4
13
18
24
33
3
14
9
20
28
32
8
15
3     KATEB
23
36
3
10
34
20
19
   ------>bet 17 18 19 20 21 22
10
8
4
14
32
14
18   W
18   W  ---->bet 16 17 18 19 20
30
36
18   W
0
31
13
11
 ----->bet 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
22
1

JLP.-
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: JLP on May 23, 2008, 12:53:56 PM
DUBLINET
DEALER TOM

4
8
12
19
11
 --->bet 9 10 11 12 13 14
23
5
17
17  
5    
31
10   W
8  
 ---->bet 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
27
12  W
9    W
30  
23  
4    
19  
32
2
0
9
33
27  
29  
---->bet 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
24
20
33
31  W
----->bet 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
34  W
18  
4
2  
34  W
13
9
33  W
23
12
25  
10
25  
36
19
34  W
33  W
1    

Cheers,
JLP.-
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: kawa4711 on May 23, 2008, 03:36:49 PM
Hi, JLP,

QuoteHi Kawa,  
Here is a little test of what you refer :

This idea is from @ winkel, a very active roulette specialist and he has detected a lot of roulette phenomens.

I wanted to bring his ideas to this forum so we can perhaps exchange our ideas between the two forums.

With best regards

and thanks to @Victor for his great ROULETTEFORUM
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 23, 2008, 04:30:07 PM
Hi @all,

my name is winkel and my friend kawa4711 directed me to this forum. As far as I read here  :thumbsup:

kawa brought my name in so I decided to register for being able to answer questions.

I hope my English is good enough to be understood.

@JLP
your first test is not following the rules.
1) Between the ignating numbers there has to be another number e.g. 6-x-8
2) this number x mustn´t touch the ingnating numbers: e.g. 6-7-8 = don´t play 6;8
3) there mustn´t be a touching number in this way: 32-33-x-34 = don´t play 33;34
4. only bet once the following Ball behind the trigger.

I give you the statistics i got so far.courtesy of @webpirat

Markov-Signal A0 means there were 5 numbers to play
A1 there were 6 numbers to play
A2 there were 7 numbers to play

As far as we can see is the bestsolution to play A0 once.

(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fnolinks.zufallsforschung.de%2FBilder%2FMarkov-CC-0-1-2.gif&hash=09ae804ad9ef05589a0776503b1e19be9e731a84)

best regards
winkel
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: JLP on May 23, 2008, 05:02:28 PM
Hello Winkel,

Welcome to the Forum.

[highlight]@JLP
your first test is not following the rules.  
1) Between the ignating numbers there has to be another number e.g. 6-x-8
2) this number x mustn´t touch the ingnating numbers: e.g. 6-7-8 = don´t play 6;8
3) there mustn´t be a touching number in this way: 32-33-x-34 = don´t play 33;34
4. only bet once the following Ball behind the trigger.
[/highlight]

Now the rules are clear.
In the point 4 you bet only searching for 1 win and stop and wait for new instances??
According to the table statistics betting with 5 numbers is more profitable than the others (6 & 7 numbers).

Cheers,
JLP.-
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 23, 2008, 05:41:35 PM
Hi JLP,

[highlight]In the point 4 you bet only searching for 1 win and stop and wait for new instances?? [/highlight]

my friend @webpirat and I tested it in many ways to play but then stopped testing due to other ideas.
This way to bet ist the most effectiv. You can play all three selections but only once.
The statics show how long a winning number is missing. A progression is not recommended as you can count out.

add:
Tr.Z 1
Tr.Z 2
...

That means e.g.:  if we got 20.x.20 wie play 18.19.20.21.22
18 is Z1
19 is Z2
20 is Z3
21 is Z4
22 is Z5

the statistics shows how often the Center-Number is a winner or one of the neighbors

[highlight]According to the table statistics betting with 5 numbers is more profitable than the others (6 & 7 numbers). [/highlight]

simply:Yes but all three are winning over the distance. Sometimes the game gives no ignating numbers for a long time. so I play it just when I´m waiting for a trigger playing other strategies.

Hint:
As I Think there is another connection to the Fibonacci-Numbers. 0 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 ....
But it is not tested or finally discussed:

Coup/Numbers/Fibo
01 - 20
02 - xx - 0
03 - 21 - 1
04 - xx - 1
05 - xx - 2
06 - xx - 3
07 - xx -
08 - xx - 5
09 - xx -
10 - xx -
11 - xx - 8
...
17 - xx - 13

We would bet only the balls which compare to the Fibonacci-count
What is still to prove is: Where to start with the Fibo-Row?
Is the first ingnition-Number Fibo-count 0?
Is the dividing Number the Fibo-Count 0?
Is the second ignition-Number Fibo-Count 0?

Please know: Markov talks about a Hidden Markov Sequence (HMS) or Hidden Markov Movement (HMM)
That means: In the way the Generator gies us the numbers there is a hidden way to select the next number. this way we cannot identify. All we know is the result.
But this hidden way is more often repeating than all other ways when we find connecting numbers.

to play it on the mathematical order 0.1.2.3.4.....36 or on the order in the roulette 35.3.26.0.32.15.19....
makes no difference to the results.

lots of fun testing it 8-)

br
winkel

Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: JLP on May 25, 2008, 01:24:59 AM
Hi All,

Here is another test at Dublinbet of the Markov chains using the rules proposed by Winkel.
As the opportunities to bet are limited with this method it must be used as a secondary system waiting for the right instances to make bets.

(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg359.imageshack.us%2Fimg359%2F6252%2Fmarkovchainsab7.jpg&hash=4cdbbc3fe4379481dd58bd9597f3e4ae3e2adf94)

Cheers,
JLP.-
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: bloomone2002 on May 25, 2008, 02:30:21 PM
It looks like the neighbors approach is a good supplement JLP.
The repeat approach you posted is great primary. I completed a test, where I play up to 3 repeats, then drop off the oldest one when the 4 repeats shows up, therefore, im only playing a max. of 6 numbers. See my results below:

39 spins, 213 u
JLP, what do you think about this approach?

Session 1 table 3 , 1/3/08
Neighbors

1,      2
2      4
3      13
4      35
5      25
6      16
7      12
8      9
9      19
10      20
11      5
12      9, bet 22, 31
13      17
14      6, start here, on 22, 31
15      24, (22, 31) +1                  -2
16      35, bet 3, 12 , (22, 31) +1      -4
17      22, (3,12,31)+1, h22            -8+36=28
18      31, (3,12)+1, h31            -3+36=33
19      33, (3,12)+1                  -2
20      2, bet (21, 25)+1, wait            -4
21      29,
22      18
23      23
24      29, bet (7,18) & 21,25
25      0, (7,18,21,25)      +1                  -8
27      30, (7,18,21,25)+1,                   -12
28      9, bet 22, 31 wait, (7,18,21,25)+1      -16
29      21, (7,18,21,22,25,31)+1, h21            -22+36= 14
30      6, (22,27,31,34)+1 bet, 27,34            -4
31      31, (22,27,31,34)+1, h31            -8+36= 28
32      31, (22,27,31,34)+1, h31            -4+36= 32      
33      0, (22,27,31,34)+1                  -4
34      26, (22,27,31,34)+1                  -8
35      19, (22,27,31,34)+1, bet 4,15            -12
36      15, (4,15,22,27,31,34)+1, h15            -18+36= 18
37      27, (4,15,22,27,31,34)+1, h27            -6+36= 30                  
38      35, (4,15, 27,34), bet 3,12            -6
39      4, (3,4,12,15,27,34)+1, h4            -6+36= 30

Summary: 28+33+14+28+32+18+30+30= 213
Bloom
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: JLP on May 25, 2008, 07:36:00 PM
QuoteIt looks like the neighbors approach is a good supplement JLP.
The repeat approach you posted is great primary. I completed a test, where I play up to 3 repeats, then drop off the oldest one when the 4 repeats shows up, therefore, im only playing a max. of 6 numbers. See my results below:

39 spins, 213 u
JLP, what do you think about this approach?

Session 1 table 3 , 1/3/08
Neighbors

1,      2
2      4
3      13
4      35
5      25
6      16
7      12
8      9
9      19
10      20
11      5
12      9, bet 22, 31
13      17
14      6, start here, on 22, 31
15      24, (22, 31) +1                  -2
16      35, bet 3, 12 , (22, 31) +1      -4
17      22, (3,12,31)+1, h22            -8+36=28
18      31, (3,12)+1, h31            -3+36=33
19      33, (3,12)+1                  -2
20      2, bet (21, 25)+1, wait            -4
21      29,
22      18
23      23
24      29, bet (7,18) & 21,25
25      0, (7,18,21,25)      +1                  -8
27      30, (7,18,21,25)+1,                   -12
28      9, bet 22, 31 wait, (7,18,21,25)+1      -16
29      21, (7,18,21,22,25,31)+1, h21            -22+36= 14
30      6, (22,27,31,34)+1 bet, 27,34            -4
31      31, (22,27,31,34)+1, h31            -8+36= 28
32      31, (22,27,31,34)+1, h31            -4+36= 32      
33      0, (22,27,31,34)+1                  -4
34      26, (22,27,31,34)+1                  -8
35      19, (22,27,31,34)+1, bet 4,15            -12
36      15, (4,15,22,27,31,34)+1, h15            -18+36= 18
37      27, (4,15,22,27,31,34)+1, h27            -6+36= 30                  
38      35, (4,15, 27,34), bet 3,12            -6
39      4, (3,4,12,15,27,34)+1, h4            -6+36= 30

Summary: 28+33+14+28+32+18+30+30= 213
Bloom

Hi Bloom,

Yes, it can be also playing more numbers neighbours as it appears (maybe till 6 numbers total).
Also Turbo Genious suggested in other new thread to search for a repetition of the repeater.
It can be too.
The first system posted by Edgardo I haven´t tested too much yet.

Cheers,
JLP.-
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: bloomone2002 on May 25, 2008, 08:26:15 PM
JLP, thanks for the reply, I will look at the repitition of repeaters thread.

Look at the session below, I did a flatbet and a pluscoup, but could not recover. I ended the session at -56, because at the last spin, the neighbors were changing every spin but no matches:
There maybe something here to improve upon.

Continue & restart session on next spin

1,      2
2      28
3      15
4      15, bet 19, 32 wait
5      31
6      2, bet 21, 25, (19,21,25,32)+1 next spin
7      21, (19,21,25,32)+1, h21            -4+36= 32
8      3, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -4
9      13, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -8
10      17, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -12
11      15, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -16
12      18, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -20
13      24, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -24
14      6, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -28
15      29, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -32
16      11, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -36
17      14, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -40
18      2, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -44
19      23, (19,21,25,32)+1                   -48
20      33, (19,21,25,32)+1                  -52
21      14, (19,21,25,32)+1, bet 20, 31      -56
22      35, (19,20,21,25,31,32)+1            -62
23      29, (21,25,20,31)+1, bet 7, 18            -68
24      33, (20,31, 7,18)+1, bet 1,16            -74
25      9, (20,31, 7,18, 1,16)+1            -80
26      22, (20,31, 7,18, 1,16)+1            -86
27      18, (20,31, 7,18, 1,16)+1, h18      , bet 22,29      -92+36= -56 (add +1)
28      15, (7,18, 1,16, 22,29)+2, bet 19, 32      -68
29      21, (1,16, 22,29, 19,32)+2, bet 2,4      -80
30      15, (22,29, 19,32, 2,4)+2,            -92
31      7, (22,29, 19,32, 2,4)+2            -104
32      35, (22,29, 19,32, 2,4)+2 bet 3,12      -116
33      32, (19,32, 2,4, 3,12)+2, h32            -128+72= -56
Bloom
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 25, 2008, 08:53:17 PM
Hi bloom, hi JLP

the problem is simple to solve:
You want too much and that too fast.

1. don´t play, when the numbers are connected: e.g.
3      15
4      15, bet 19, 32

2. Do only play the following ball
win in ball 7, bet 2 win 36 = +34
loss in ball 22,23,24,25,29,33 bet 6x2=-12
all together +22

Don´t overact!

br
winkel
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: bloomone2002 on May 25, 2008, 09:29:01 PM
QuoteHi bloom, hi JLP

the problem is simple to solve:
You want too much and that too fast.

1. don´t play, when the numbers are connected: e.g.
3      15
4      15, bet 19, 32

2. Do only play the following ball
win in ball 7, bet 2 win 36 = +34

loss in ball 22,23,24,25,29,33 bet 6x2=-12
all together +22  (I dont understand what you are doing in this section of the session. What numbers are you betting? and why? Please show the example in the workout)

Don´t overact!

br
winkel
thanks
Bloom
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: bloomone2002 on May 25, 2008, 10:17:11 PM
JLP, i looked at the turbo's repeater thread, but I how do you know which number is gonna repeat?
Bloom
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 26, 2008, 05:20:57 AM
Hi bloom,

i took the the balls of your example. I just marked the numbers of the balls you played.
But would have played each selection only once.

So i would have played in 6 balls your selected numbers an would have lost.
One win and 6 losses is totally +22 Units

Hope you can get ist now.
Sorry for the misswriting

winkel

Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: bloomone2002 on May 26, 2008, 06:25:34 AM
QuoteHi bloom,

i took the the balls of your example. I just marked the numbers of the balls you played.
But would have played each selection only once.

So i would have played in 6 balls your selected numbers an would have lost.
One win and 6 losses is totally +22 Units

Hope you can get ist now.
Sorry for the misswriting

winkel


Ok, I understand. So, I only bet the 2 numbers for only the next spin.
Also, in JLP's sample session in reply #8, he would only have 2 hits(wins) if bet the same way.

Bloom
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 26, 2008, 07:34:48 AM
hi bloom,

thats correct: 13 bets with 2 numbers = -26
two wins in the next ball +72
total: +46

br
winkel
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: bloomone2002 on May 26, 2008, 12:59:21 PM
Quotehi bloom,

thats correct: 13 bets with 2 numbers = -26
two wins in the next ball +72
total: +46

br
winkel

Ah, I get it thanks Winkel. I will test it some more.
What about the other variation, see JLP's sample session in reply #21. Should we only bet the next spin only in that method also? In that case we had 7 opportunities with 2 hits.
Bloom
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 26, 2008, 02:07:42 PM
That´s it, bloom.

I know it´s a long game with long waitings for the signal. Therefore it is winning.
If you´re going to press the win, you will be caught in senseless Progressions.

Our last Check with 5.833.056 Coups we found up to 143times no win!

br
winkel
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 26, 2008, 02:15:39 PM
That´s it, bloom.

I know it´s a long game with long waitings for the signal. Therefore it is winning.
If you´re going to press the win, you will be caught in senseless Progressions.

Our last Check with 5.833.056 Coups we found up to 143times no win!

br
winkel
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: bloomone2002 on May 26, 2008, 02:52:53 PM
QuoteThat´s it, bloom.

I know it´s a long game with long waitings for the signal. Therefore it is winning.
If you´re going to press the win, you will be caught in senseless Progressions.

Our last Check with 5.833.056 Coups we found up to 143times no win! (what do you mean? I am in the US, what do you mean by this figure 5.833.056? what do you mean by coups?)

br
winkel

Bloom
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 26, 2008, 04:37:25 PM
We have a Pool of about 10 million balls(coups) which were played in European Casinos or Online-Casinos such as GlobalPlayer(closed down) and others using RNG.

In this pool we found 5,833,056 million Situation of Markov Chain which were virtually played.
We´ve listed the length from start to success(win).

look her for complete list:
nolinks://nolinks.roulette-board.de/index.php?showtopic=6597&view=findpost&p=102727

br
winkel
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: bloomone2002 on May 26, 2008, 06:54:24 PM
So, i guess you are saying that the numbers you are betting on to win, could skip up to 148 spins without a hit? and because of that dont chase the numbers beyond one spin.
Bloom
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 26, 2008, 07:29:38 PM
Hi bloom,

you got it.

still in discussion is to play 2 following balls, because they follow the Markov-Chain-idea:
Number -> any -> number > leads to -> any -> number

br
winkel
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: bloomone2002 on May 26, 2008, 07:35:28 PM
Ok, please keep us updated when your discussions have been finalized. or if you have more details to share about it maybe some of the experience players here can add to the discussion
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: straight-talker on May 26, 2008, 07:54:08 PM
I have tested this for a few days in my spare time and I have to say it is no world beater, like a lot of systems it can win rapidly. As gamblers we like to look on the bright side. Unfortunately if a system can have a sharp upturn, then the reverse is true as well. I would put Turbo's latest effort into the same basket. I don't know know many players who would take a bankroll to the casino and see it vanish rapidly while sitting there calm and collected knowing that it is just a sharp downturn.
The guy Arte makes the very valid point.  The winning player has a game which hovers around the zero. His skill and gameplan will win him a few units more often than not and then he quits with a profit. Boring eh?.... The money in the bank Frank. The casino will hate you for it. But the wife will still be talking to you when you get home.

Straight-talker.
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 27, 2008, 05:31:39 AM
@straight-talker

people all around the world seem to be the same.
They come to a forum with subject roulette and await a long-time-always-winning system with money-back-guarantee. Some wish the the bankroll is included.

All who are interested (as a puzzle-game) in roulette know: there has nothing been found so far.
And if it has been found, it wouldn´t be written here or anywhere, cause the holder would play all night and day. He would not read posts like yours.

Some people go to forums with subject motor-bikes. But no one awaits a free bike that runs 500miles an hour with using no gas, no insurance needed and if you have an accident you will always survive unharmed.

As you can read above all are testing and thinkng about this idea. Nobody said its working for sure and is the "world beater".

By the way: Do you have one?

it would help much more if you tell what you have tested. How many balls, what did you take as trigger, did you use progression a.s.o.

That it doesn´t work we already know. But what i know: it is fun to play in moments where i have to wait for another game´s trigger.

br
winkel
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: straight-talker on May 27, 2008, 07:32:17 AM
@Winkel,

I am not here looking for the 100% guarantee  ;D it does not exist, well not to my knowledge anyhow. As for me I spent many years trying to figure out the 'puzzle'. Great minds must think alike because I came up with something almost identical to this idea many moons ago.
Do I have the "world beater" No, I play my own method which tends to focus what is going on at the wheel, I bet three double lanes which turns it into an even money bet. I use a positive progression. It takes advantage of the unequal distribution of the wheel. There are times when you get a very equal spread, but then I leave it alone. This is where the fake bettor idea comes in useful. There are very similar ideas to mine on here, the only difference is that I would say my bet selection is unique.
I tested your method posted above extensively, I don't intend to spend an hour writing it all down when I can just tell you it failed. In honesty it shows the mind of a gambler, because I will never need to change the way I play at the moment and yet I still went fishing. GREED our biggest enemy. This is just my opinion, but playing a volatile method opens you up to getting hooked on the game of roulette, it brings the highs and lows. If you want to be a long term winner, you are better avoiding this if you can. I will say it again, boring eh?....... But then I am on the right side. I don't play all day every hour god sends. I don't need to, the casino will be there waiting for me whenever I feel like going and playing and winning.

straight-talker
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: TwoCatSam on May 27, 2008, 09:22:17 AM
Winkel

I understand the concept: 23 any 25......that's the trigger.  (One of them.)

Now, are you saying this is a single-bet system?  I bet one time and wait for another trigger?

If anything makes a profit, it's a world-beater....in my opinion.

Why, straight, do we search for better?  It is the human nature.  It's why we don't still ride around on horses or live in caves.

Sam
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: TwoCatSam on May 28, 2008, 11:31:40 AM
What we need to know is this:

Of the 5 million + spins, what was the hit rate on the one spin that was played?  How many times did you lose 5, 6, or seven units and how many times did you win?

Did you win more than you lost?  

Are you saying either 5, 6, or 7 numbers slept for 148 spins?

Sam
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 28, 2008, 12:36:14 PM
I just notice, that I mixed up the figures:

Once again:
Balls checked: 5833056
therein found: Situation 17 - any - 17 (repeating Numbers) > 166375
bet: e.g. 16-17-18 total 3 No.

ignore the first row its just the number of the line used in Excel
"lfd" is the ball-Nr. which won.

4             100,00%      166.375
5      lfd      %      
6      1      8,05%      13393
7      2      7,51%      12492
8      3      6,87%      11429
9      4      6,26%      10421
10      5      5,76%      9590
11      6      5,30%      8820
12      7      4,95%      8242
13      8      4,36%      7247
14      9      4,10%      6818
15      10      3,73%      6214
16      11      3,46%      5760
17      12      3,18%      5294
18      13      2,94%      4891
19      14      2,66%      4424
20      15      2,56%      4255
21      16      2,34%      3896
22      17      2,11%      3504
23      18      1,92%      3195
24      19      1,85%      3072
25      20      1,65%      2744
26      21      1,49%      2474
27      22      1,36%      2270
28      23      1,21%      2010
29      24      1,17%      1943
30      25      1,10%      1838
31      26      0,98%      1634
32      27      0,87%      1451
33      28      0,84%      1390
34      29      0,74%      1229
35      30      0,70%      1160
36      31      0,62%      1038
37      32      0,60%      1002
38      33      0,55%      917
39      34      0,52%      869
40      35      0,47%      775
41      36      0,44%      732
42      37      0,37%      614
43      38      0,33%      553
44      39      0,32%      539
45      40      0,32%      533
46      41      0,27%      451
47      42      0,26%      437
48      43      0,23%      388
49      44      0,21%      346
50      45      0,20%      337
51      46      0,17%      290
52      47      0,17%      279
53      48      0,16%      259
54      49      0,13%      212
55      50      0,14%      238
56      51      0,12%      202
57      52      0,10%      169
58      53      0,10%      166
59      54      0,09%      144
60      55      0,06%      107
61      56      0,08%      139
62      57      0,07%      113
63      58      0,07%      121
64      59      0,06%      98
65      60      0,05%      90
66      61      0,05%      85
67      62      0,05%      78
68      63      0,05%      86
69      64      0,04%      69
70      65      0,03%      44
71      66      0,04%      70
72      67      0,03%      52
73      68      0,04%      62
74      69      0,03%      42
75      70      0,03%      46
76      71      0,02%      37
77      72      0,02%      30
78      73      0,02%      25
79      74      0,01%      24
80      75      0,02%      26
81      76      0,01%      19
82      77      0,01%      24
83      78      0,01%      18
84      79      0,01%      20
85      80      0,01%      20
86      81      0,01%      18
87      82      0,01%      15
88      83      0,01%      20
89      84      0,01%      23
90      85      0,01%      14
91      86      0,01%      9
92      87      0,01%      11
93      88      0,01%      13
94      89      0,01%      12
95      90      0,01%      12
96      91      0,00%      8
97      92      0,00%      4
98      93      0,00%      4
99      94      0,00%      6
100      95      0,01%      9
101      96      0,00%      6
102      97      0,00%      4
103      98      0,00%      3
104      99      0,00%      3
105      100      0,00%      5
106      101      0,00%      5
107      102      0,00%      3
108      103      0,00%      2
109      104      0,00%      5
110      105      0,00%      0
111      106      0,00%      1
112      107      0,00%      3
113      108      0,00%      1
114      109      0,00%      1
115      110      0,00%      3
116      111      0,00%      1
117      112      0,00%      2
118      113      0,00%      0
119      114      0,00%      0
120      115      0,00%      1
121      116      0,00%      1
122      117      0,00%      0
123      118      0,00%      2
124      119      0,00%      0
125      120      0,00%      0
126      121      0,00%      1
127      122      0,00%      1
128      123      0,00%      1
129      124      0,00%      1
130      125      0,00%      0
131      126      0,00%      0
132      127      0,00%      0
133      128      0,00%      1
134      129      0,00%      1
135      130      0,00%      0
136      131      0,00%      0
137      132      0,00%      0
138      133      0,00%      0
139      134      0,00%      1
140      135      0,00%      0
141      136      0,00%      1
142      137      0,00%      0
143      138      0,00%      0
144      139      0,00%      0
145      140      0,00%      0
146      141      0,00%      0
147      142      0,00%      0
148      143      0,00%      2

and another list and variation of betting:

in the case of e.g. 21 - any - 23
numbers bet e.g.: 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 total 7 No.
balls checked: 9517119
found: 592412
won in first ball following: 111707
average for 7 No. set: 18.92%
average won in first: 18.86%
complete List:

3                           Coups      9.517.119
4                           100,00%      592.412
5      lfd      W             %      Angriffe
6      1      18,92%             18,86%      111707
7      2      15,34%             15,28%      90495
8      3      12,44%             12,42%      73575
9      4      10,08%             10,00%      59254
10      5      8,18%             8,16%      48320
11      6      6,63%             6,66%      39432
12      7      5,38%             5,39%      31949
13      8      4,36%             4,37%      25917
14      9      3,53%             3,54%      20999
15      10      2,87%             2,87%      17031
16      11      2,32%             2,34%      13871
17      12      1,88%             1,90%      11274
18      13      1,53%             1,55%      9207
19      14      1,24%             1,25%      7418
20      15      1,00%             1,02%      6038
21      16      0,81%             0,85%      5011
22      17      0,66%             0,65%      3877
23      18      0,54%             0,53%      3135
24      19      0,43%             0,43%      2572
25      20      0,35%             0,37%      2181
26      21      0,29%             0,29%      1704
27      22      0,23%             0,24%      1409
28      23      0,19%             0,19%      1142
29      24      0,15%             0,17%      992
30      25      0,12%             0,13%      757
31      26      0,10%             0,10%      590
32      27      0,08%             0,08%      452
33      28      0,07%             0,07%      395
34      29      0,05%             0,06%      349
35      30      0,04%             0,04%      261
36      31      0,04%             0,04%      214
37      32      0,03%             0,03%      168
38      33      0,02%             0,02%      143
39      34      0,02%             0,02%      120
40      35      0,02%             0,01%      87
41      36      0,01%             0,01%      69
42      37      0,01%             0,01%      60
43      38      0,01%             0,01%      41
44      39      0,01%             0,01%      36
45      40      0,01%             0,00%      23
46      41      0,00%             0,00%      22
47      42      0,00%             0,00%      25
48      43      0,00%             0,00%      15
49      44      0,00%             0,00%      13
50      45      0,00%             0,00%      12
51      46      0,00%             0,00%      14
52      47      0,00%             0,00%      7
53      48      0,00%             0,00%      6
54      49      0,00%             0,00%      6
55      50      0,00%             0,00%      3
56      51      0,00%             0,00%      1
57      52      0,00%             0,00%      2
58      53      0,00%             0,00%      2
59      54      0,00%             0,00%      1
60      55      0,00%             0,00%      0
61      56      0,00%             0,00%      1
62      57      0,00%             0,00%      1
63      58      0,00%             0,00%      1
64      59      0,00%             0,00%      3
65      60      0,00%             0,00%      0
66      61      0,00%             0,00%      0
67      62      0,00%             0,00%      1
68      63      0,00%             0,00%      0
69      64      0,00%             0,00%      0
70      65      0,00%             0,00%      0
71      66      0,00%             0,00%      0
72      67      0,00%             0,00%      0
73      68      0,00%             0,00%      1

br
winkel
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: TwoCatSam on May 29, 2008, 11:07:45 AM
winkel

Quoting from your first post:

"Markov-Signal A0 means there were 5 numbers to play
A1 there were 6 numbers to play
A2 there were 7 numbers to play"

I understood this to mean if you had 17 any 17 you bet the first two above 17 (15 16) and the two below (18 19).  Is this wrong?

Yet, in your above example you say:

"Balls checked: 5833056
therein found: Situation 17 - any - 17 (repeating Numbers) > 166375
bet: e.g. 16-17-18 total 3 No."

Here you only bet the first above and the first below.  Why the inconsistency?

Your figures (using 3 numbers) show a hit rate of 8.05%.  Any three numbers anytime, 3/37, will hit at a rate of 8.11%.  Your method hit six one-hundredths of a percent less than expected average.

winkel, what are you saying with the Markov Chain theory?

Sam
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: winkel on May 29, 2008, 11:27:40 AM
Hi TwoCatSam,

you are absolutely right!

The problem is, that I am not able to program by myself. So i have to refer to other programmers who sometimes do other selections. Like that you mentione to set just 1 neighbor instead of 2 a each side.

[highlight]Your method hit six one-hundredths of a percent less than expected average. [/highlight]
This is the normal variation (spread?)

Here another "fresh" list: 7 numbers (21-x-23) not in arithmic order but in wheel-order
1 list normal casino and 1 list RNG-Online-Casinos

      
1             ausgewertet             6.755.268             3.176.753
2                    100,00%      271.186      100,00%      122.523
3      lfd      W (math.)      Croupier      Angriffe      RNG      Angriffe
4      1      18,92%      18,86%      51.143      18,96%      23.236
5      2      15,34%      15,29%      41.463      15,30%      18.745
6      3      12,44%      12,47%      33.804      12,60%      15.444
7      4      10,08%      10,07%      27.302      10,03%      12.292
8      5      8,18%      8,19%      22.202      8,13%      9.962
9      6      6,63%      6,68%      18.103      6,60%      8.082
10      7      5,38%      5,36%      14.538      5,42%      6.642
11      8      4,36%      4,37%      11.846      4,39%      5.381
12      9      3,53%      3,53%      9.570      3,55%      4.354
13      10      2,87%      2,89%      7.850      2,80%      3.427
14      11      2,32%      2,33%      6.325      2,26%      2.770
15      12      1,88%      1,85%      5.023      1,89%      2.311
16      13      1,53%      1,56%      4.236      1,55%      1.894
17      14      1,24%      1,23%      3.329      1,19%      1.463
18      15      1,00%      1,00%      2.708      0,99%      1.212
19      16      0,81%      0,83%      2.248      0,83%      1.019
20      17      0,66%      0,68%      1.845      0,66%      814
21      18      0,54%      0,53%      1.430      0,54%      662
22      19      0,43%      0,42%      1.145      0,44%      535
23      20      0,35%      0,34%      916      0,38%      463
24      21      0,29%      0,29%      775      0,27%      335
25      22      0,23%      0,24%      645      0,23%      283
26      23      0,19%      0,19%      503      0,21%      262
27      24      0,15%      0,15%      402      0,13%      165
28      25      0,12%      0,12%      330      0,13%      154
29      26      0,10%      0,11%      311      0,09%      110
30      27      0,08%      0,07%      199      0,07%      89
31      28      0,07%      0,06%      173      0,07%      80
32      29      0,05%      0,06%      155      0,05%      64
33      30      0,04%      0,04%      120      0,03%      36
34      31      0,04%      0,04%      108      0,04%      54
35      32      0,03%      0,03%      79      0,03%      36
36      33      0,02%      0,03%      77      0,03%      34
37      34      0,02%      0,02%      46      0,01%      17
38      35      0,02%      0,01%      38      0,01%      15
39      36      0,01%      0,01%      29      0,01%      18
40      37      0,01%      0,01%      26      0,01%      13
41      38      0,01%      0,01%      26      0,01%      9
42      39      0,01%      0,01%      30      0,01%      8
43      40      0,01%      0,00%      13      0,00%      5
44      41      0,00%      0,00%      12      0,00%      3
45      42      0,00%      0,00%      11      0,01%      7
46      43      0,00%      0,00%      9      0,00%      5
47      44      0,00%      0,00%      4      0,00%      3
48      45      0,00%      0,00%      6      0,00%      0
49      46      0,00%      0,00%      7      0,00%      3
50      47      0,00%      0,00%      8      0,00%      2
51      48      0,00%      0,00%      4      0,00%      1
52      49      0,00%      0,00%      2      0,00%      0
53      50      0,00%      0,00%      1      0,00%      0
54      51      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
55      52      0,00%      0,00%      1      0,00%      1
56      53      0,00%      0,00%      1      0,00%      0
57      54      0,00%      0,00%      1      0,00%      0
58      55      0,00%      0,00%      1      0,00%      0
59      56      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      1
60      57      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
61      58      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
62      59      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
63      60      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
64      61      0,00%      0,00%      2      0,00%      1
65      62      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
66      63      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
67      64      0,00%      0,00%      1      0,00%      0
68      65      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
69      66      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
70      67      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
71      68      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
72      69      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
73      70      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
74      71      0,00%      0,00%      0      0,00%      0
75      72      0,00%      0,00%      4      0,00%      1

br
winkel
Title: Re: Introduction to Markov Chains
Post by: imazighe on February 13, 2010, 08:56:40 AM
thank u manistra for this thread ! very informative im into Markov chain also as we studied them profondly at university, I found them very interesting in gambling. 
and thank you Winkel Also ! very genious method you have also.  I am devoloping a system which combine many systems at once and I want to use all these. . .  to make a flat bet system when conditions are met at 70% to 100%.
:good: :good: