What is Educated Guessing?

[gizmotron]

What is Educated Guessing? What was Spike talking about?

When do you know you have a working trend that you can follow with a bet selection that fit's it?

What do you do when trends end just as you start to bet on them?

How do you turn guessing into a method that wins more than it loses?

How do you play chop? It's like the absence of trends isn't it? What does that tell you? Is there something to that that you can take advantage of?

I can answer all these questions. But can anyone else here? Why is there a vacuum of discussion in these things? Somebody explain that to me please.

[Far-Q]

How do you play chop? It's like the absence of trends isn't it? What does that tell you? Is there something to that that you can take advantage of?

Hi Giz

Isnt a chop just another trend?
Isnt the lack of trends in itself a trend that you can follow??

[gizmotron]

Look at this post: from the other VLS forum

"The Need For Experience"

"It seems to me that the way to win at roulette in the long run is not by playing a mechanical bet method.

Based on the books I have read about winning at roulette and the people who profess to win long term, the way they win is to be armed with an arsenal of methods and knowledge and experience and to attack the wheel based on what it's doing at the time.

I have an acquaintance (I could say friend, but we barely know each other) that I meet at the roulette machine and have for a couple of years now.  We play on the airball machines and sometimes I go out before work in the morning and he'll be there playing 3 or 4 of the stations.

Whenever he wins, which is almost every time I see him, he always drops the coupons showing his winnings down beside my screen so I can congratulate him.

He has been reluctant to talk much about his method of play, but the other day the machines malfunctioned and we couldn't get our money out until management came over.  While we were waiting, I pressured him to tell me how he plays.

He said that he has about 6 different events he watches for.  Most involve betting against the wheel.  Looking for things like 8 Even Chances in a row and then he bets a 3 step martingale for a change.  6 dozens in a row and another martingale, 6-steps, etc...

As F_LAT_INO knows these airball machines tend to repeat recent spins and our machines here in Tucson appear to be no different and so he looks for recurring events.  He was showing me how the 1 & 2 columns were hitting way more than they should be statistically.  So he would wait until the 3 column hit 2 or 3 times close together and then he would bet on the 1 & 2 column.  While we were waiting for someone to come an service the machine it was spinning and the the 1 & 2 column hit 9 times in a row.  Then the 3 column hit 2 times and the 1 & 2 column another 8 times.

Naturally, he was pissed off because he said that cost him about $100 because he couldn't play his system.

These various methods are in addition to playing a system that is very similar to the STAR system.  He uses some triggers, but bets the STAR bet method which is a let-it-ride for the 1st 3 of 4 bets and then bet twice at the same level.  I'm familiar with the Star system which is as good a system as most.

Anyway, he admits that it goes in cycles.  Sometimes he wins almost every time he plays and sometimes he has periods when he stays about even.  He rarely has periods where he loses too much.

He said that once or twice per year he has a bad losing stretch that causes him to back off his bet sizes until the tide turns.

I suppose there's nothing unique with his playing style.  It's based on experience and gambler's fallacy which seems to work at least most of the time.  He swears it works for him.

Of course this is all anecdotal evidence, but it's coming from a lot of different sources, so I'm thinking this type of playing style is what we should be focusing on.

What do you think?  Or is this old news to most of you?

George"

[gizmotron]

Hi Giz

Isnt a chop just another trend?
Isnt the lack of trends in itself a trend that you can follow??

Yes, it is another trend. All you need is for it to keep doing it. And it does often keep doing it. To be a great trend player you must be able to see change as it begins to happen. All you get are clues. A one time change that only lasts a few spins is not a full change. That's more like a blip on the Radar screen. But if it goes back to dominating as chop then you have a good solid trend.

[Far-Q]

So then is the "educated guess" part then.. guessing when the trend may turn out to be a solid trend?

[gizmotron]

So then is the "educated guess" part then.. guessing when the trend may turn out to be a solid trend?

Yes, but only part of it. There is a need to qualify several conditions. I do this for every spin. I qualify if this is chop, streak, dominance of singles, absence of singles, sleeper section, patterns, hot numbers, sleeping zeros, and effectiveness of the last guess, the bet selection. Like I suggested a month ago. It's not money management, it's play management.

Do you think you know what these terms suggest?

[Far-Q]

 

Ok so do you play a flat bet and raise a percentage as you go through your trend?..as you said you only need to test it once to see if it is some kind of a trend.
Would you bet every time within that trend..or back off in case it ends?

[gizmotron]

Ok so do you play a flat bet and raise a percentage as you go through your trend?..as you said you only need to test it once to see if it is some kind of a trend.
Would you bet every time within that trend..or back off in case it ends?

Every loss is a signal that the end of the run has occurred. I play a two level flat bet. When I'm in a hot streak I play the higher level. After every loss I drop down to the minimum bet level allowed by the casino per bet. If the change was a short blip, but returns to the same trend, then I jump back up. If the trend loses again then it has changed enough to leave it behind in search of a new trend. The only real risk is in getting a lot of first higher bets losing in any session. Once you have one or two higher bets you have any loss from them already paid for. So the strong strategy is in becoming an expert at getting those first higher bets way more often than not getting them. That's why you must always be watching how effective you are during any session. You must keep track of your first bigger bets.

[gizmotron]

Here is an idea inspired by Spike. It's a perfect test stand to illistrate randomness and educated guessing. If I take 12 spins and use them to describe making a bet selection for a thirteenth spin then this will cause the three possible aspects of effectivness to be illistrated. That being the case by discussing it. All I need is 12 spins set up like this: "23,8,35,35,7,0,19,15,19,28,20,2,"

I can take that, chart it instantly, and give my response of why I selected what I did and all that. Enough examples like that and you all will begin to see what I mean when I say I can teach what to bet on next.

[gizmotron]

I looked at the charts and the OE section looked the best. I would bet on the pattern that there was a domination of triples. So I would bet big on Odd for the next spin. The next spin was 27, Odd. Now as I'm just getting started I would not bet the next spin odd as a large bet. I'm just glad to have my first big bet already under my belt. There is no evidence that I'm in a hot streak. So my next bet is minimum odd.

It's a good thing I swtched to a smaller bet too. The next spin was 14.


| O  E |
| X    | -- 1
|    X | -- 2
| X    | -- 3
| X    | -- 4
| X    | -- 5
-------| -- 6
| X    | -- 7
| X    | -- 8
| X    | -- 9
|    X | -- 10
|    X | -- 11
|    X | -- 12

Do you see the experience kicking in? I knew that an early big win was a great start. You can grind away with that at minimum bets for a while and you will still be ahead. I know to search for a real hot streak. That's my ultimate goal.

[Far-Q]

Thank you for replying to my questions Giz...

Would you at anytime bet big on more than one trend at a time? Or just when there is one more dominant than the rest?

[gizmotron]

Would you at anytime bet big on more than one trend at a time? Or just when there is one more dominant than the rest? 

No, I almost never bet on more than one selected best trend.

[Far-Q]

I know to search for a real hot streak. That's my ultimate goal.

And how would I start to search for a real hot streak please?

[gizmotron]

And how would I start to search for a real hot streak please?

I like to find hot streaks in the Doz/Col sections where they pay 2/1. I bet on two sections / dozens or columns, 24 numbers. I'll bet the same amount in each section. I can get hot streaks of 16 wins in a row many times per day. It's easy to see a sleeping column or a sleeping dozen. So by betting that it will keep sleeping I get my hot streak. So sometimes the hot streak comes from jumping around to many different types of bets. But sometimes it is in following a single trend type that just keeps going. Long stretches of singles in the doz/col bets are very common.

And this too. You can lose every bet in those sections, like falling off a cliff. It just goes straight down. You must react to downturns as they start, and long before they do any real damage too.

[Far-Q]

I like to find hot streaks in the Doz/Col sections where they pay 2/1. I bet on two sections / dozens or columns, 24 numbers. I'll bet the same amount in each section. I can get hot streaks of 16 wins in a row many times per day. It's easy to see a sleeping column or a sleeping dozen. So by betting that it will keep sleeping I get my hot streak. So sometimes the hot streak comes from jumping around to many different types of bets. But sometimes it is in following a single trend type that just keeps going. Long stretches of singles in the doz/col bets are very common.

And this too. You can lose every bet in those sections, like falling off a cliff. It just goes straight down. You must react to downturns as they start, and long before they do any real damage too.

Thank you Giz.

[Far-Q]

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