Just my opinion, so far no simple system here works long-term yet

[bobbybobby]

Hi Sam, i was talking about Simple system.  There are system that work long-term (to me as long as over 6 months or more and it's profitable, it's good), but they are not simple.

that's just my opinion.  :-)

cheers.


Bobby

bb

Bro, you've been posting for a year about the real money you won at CasinoWebCam and Ladbrooke's. 

$4,000 here and $5,000 there!  When are you going to loose if nothing works long term.

Sam

[bobbybobby]

@ hideseek,  holysmoke... thanks for alerting me on that.

I have using only flat bets using ClothDog's Root System.

$126 starting bankroll, now at $400+ after over 200 spins.

maybe it's just my good luck?  but it's hitting so frequently!!

gosh..


BobbyBobby

[JHM]

simple systems do work, the way to make them win is to take advantage of probabilities, yes the game is independant trials but past spins are an indicator to what you your next bet could be, the probability that 10 red or blacks come up in a row is 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1/1024, the chances of that happening twice in a row would be 1024x1024=1048576 strictly speaking - the 2.7% edge is around 1/1000000

now I hope my maths is correct for working out probabilities or im going to look at idiot lol! this is an extreme example but im pretty sure if this is correct I should be able to take advantage of a 1/1000000 chance of losing, and I understand that you wont bet 1000000 times before this appears but that should be possible to beat.

and 1 more thing, the maths on here says you should still lose to the house edge but remember roulette is not a game of maths, its a game of chances.

When they are independent, there isn't any connection to what's coming. But I agree with you, have you ever seen 100 reds hit in a row?

[Diarmaid]

Self control is the key!!!!!

[Herb]

Self control is the key!!!!!

No it's not.  It doesn't make a losing system a winner.  So don't punish yourself whenever you lose.

But I agree with you, have you ever seen 100 reds hit in a row?

Rare events happen everytime you watch the game.  Events that are far more rare than witnessing 100 reds in a row.
Take for example the first 100 spins of the wheel.  Do you realize how rare of an event that is?  Nobody is likely to ever witness those numbers to come in the exact or that the occurred, ever again.  The odds of them hitting in that exact order again would be 1/38^100

So don't fool yourself.  Rare events are common in roulette. 

Herb

[bobbybobby]

ok, maybe i am wrong.

i just discovered the GPM method by Kimo Li is very near a simple methodology.

figuring that one out now.  anyone interested to exchange ideas, please PM me!

cheers!

:-)

BobbyBobby

[Boo_Ray]

ok, maybe I am wrong.

i just discovered the GPM method by Kimo Li is very near a simple methodology.

figuring that one out now.  anyone interested to exchange ideas, please PM me!

cheers!

:-)

BobbyBobby

but it is not a system...

method and system are two diferent things

[See_Jerek]

Self control is the key!!!!!

No it's not.  It doesn't make a losing system a winner.  So don't punish yourself whenever you lose.

But I agree with you, have you ever seen 100 reds hit in a row?

Rare events happen everytime you watch the game.  Events that are far more rare than witnessing 100 reds in a row.
Take for example the first 100 spins of the wheel.  Do you realize how rare of an event that is?  Nobody is likely to ever witness those numbers to come in the exact or that the occurred, ever again.  The odds of them hitting in that exact order again would be 1/38^100

So don't fool yourself.  Rare events are common in roulette. 

Herb

what are the examples of rare events or would you call them imbalances.
Like 12 reds in a row
1st dozen appear 12 times etc

[Kon-Fu-Sed]

Hi see_jerek, and all,


I hope I didn't misunderstand your question...

Here's an example of a RARE event:
Wiesbaden Table #3, yesterday, from spin #1:

29 - 3 - 24 - 13 - 14 - 20 - 8

This sequence will happen once in 94,931,877,133 spins...
Say one spin every second minute, 24/7, then it will happen like [highlight]once in 21,673,944 years[/highlight]...

That's rare, no?


Another rare event happened right after those seven spins:

15 - 12 - 26 - 11 - 0 - 28 - 36 - 21

Actually, this event is 37 times more rare than the above; will happen [highlight]once in 801,935,948 years[/highlight]...


You can read about rare events in my doc "Roulette Probability Made Easier" in the reference area:
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/reference-area/roulette-probability-made-easier-t2193/


Regards,
KFS

[See_Jerek]

Hi see_jerek, and all,


I hope I didn't misunderstand your question...

Here's an example of a RARE event:
Wiesbaden Table #3, yesterday, from spin #1:

29 - 3 - 24 - 13 - 14 - 20 - 8

This sequence will happen once in 94,931,877,133 spins...
Say one spin every second minute, 24/7, then it will happen like [highlight]once in 21,673,944 years[/highlight]...

That's rare, no?


Another rare event happened right after those seven spins:

15 - 12 - 26 - 11 - 0 - 28 - 36 - 21

Actually, this event is 37 times more rare than the above; will happen [highlight]once in 801,935,948 years[/highlight]...


You can read about rare events in my doc "Roulette Probability Made Easier" in the reference area:
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/reference-area/roulette-probability-made-easier-t2193/


Regards,
KFS

Hello KFS
Thank you for your respond,if its rare as it happen like what you stated how come herb make a statement that rare events are common.What are the kind of rare events that are common?

This is the thing that interest me.

Is it like Red come 12 times and you start to back black as the odds for it to become black is getting higher and higher.But then again,we all know that the wheel has no memory and every number has an equal chance of hitting in a spin.

[Kon-Fu-Sed]

Hi see_jerek, and all,


Well, I have to say that such "rare" events as I showed examples of above, really happens all the time.

Use my first example:
It's seven spins - spins #1 to #7.
The probability for that sequence to happen in that order is 1 / 94,931,877,133 (37^7)
If you take the seven spins #2 to #8 it is the exact same probability for that sequence to happen in that order.
The same for spins #3 to #9.
Etc etc...

Yesterday there were 405 spins at Table #3 so there were 393 seven-spins sequences (rare events) that day.
I think that's what Herb meant - such rare events happen all the time.
(But he should answer that himself.)

What I mean is:
They are rare - you will probably not find any one of those 393 sequences at that table again in your life-time.


You compare with a sequence of 12 reds... Do you think it's a rare event?
Well, 1 / 5691... Given 400 spins (=389 12-spins sequences) / day that will happen [highlight]every fortnight[/highlight].
(14.6 days...)
On that table only. How many tables are there at Wiesbaden?
Rare...?

start to back black as the odds for it to become black is getting higher and higher.

Sorry, so far not one single person has shown this to be true.

Actually; as you can read in my doc (the post "It will even out") the probability is HIGHER that it will CONTINUE OR BE ZERO (19/37 for this vs 18/37 for Black to come).

It is of course also 19/37 for BLACK OR ZERO to hit vs 18/37 for Red to continue...
(I just love math )

There's also a post ("The wake-up") that deals with the assumption that a "sleeping" number that wakes up, starts hitting a lot - as we all have seen numerous times.
That would also be an "even out" event.
But is not, I'm afraid.


Regards,
KFS

(Last post for today - "rules")

[Herb]

KonFuSed,

I like it when you post.  It's nice to see someone else posting factual information.  The board learns when you post.

-Herb

[hoper35]

start to back black as the odds for it to become black is getting higher and higher.

Sorry, so far not one single person has shown this to be true.

It's quite trivial that it's true.  There has to be a black spun sooner or later.

The question is whether it occurs within the progression limit.

[stavros]

People only want a miracle, not a winning method. People want to BEAT the game, show some mathematical edge rather than just be able to grind out a nice profit!

[Gotrek]

If they only want a miracle, then it's all good. 


Someone said that we're inching closer to the HG. I think that is epic FALE.
That could perhaps, although not likely, be the truth if people actually co-operated here. But they don't.
Someone new shows up, says what's been tried for ages, spits the dummy when showed that it won't work, and then some bashing commences.
And then it continues.

The search for the HG here is like walking 10 cats on a leach - not going anywhere...
If there was a HG, someone would have it by now. Smarter people than us have tried for ages, and the weren't interrupted by idiots (noobs, hinters, sellers) all the time.

Not saying it can't be beat, it just can't be beat with mathematic systems.

[Gotrek]

-