good design cool

[Landis]

Suppose I study 100,000 actuals and find that long runs don't occur nearly as often as theory predicts. A run of 13 blacks is more improbable than it should be, so having seen 12 blacks in a row, I'm going to bet red. Am I committing the gambler's fallacy?

The odds of 12 backs in a row is (18/37)^12 before the first spin takes place.  On the 13th spin, the odds of red hitting or black hitting remains just 18/37.  Unless you have a defective wheel.



Randoness is bIG.  
Don't under estimate it.

-Landis

[Landis]

One time I looked at the first 100 spins of a wheel and realized that I had witness a rare event that nobody would likely ever see again.

What are the odds of those first 100 spins having occurred in the exact order in which they did occur? 

Put it this way, It's more improbable than 100 reds in a row.

[TwoCatSam]

Put it this way, It's more improbable than 100 reds in a row.

Landis

Are you speaking of numerical order, red/black, odd/even or large/small?  You only speak of "exact order". 

Sam

[GogoCro]

@ Landis
Odds what you mention is true, but something interesunting is in it.
Let say that was 99 reds in row and odds in next spin is 18/37 will hit red or black.
But WHY is not more such events happen ?? Its always near 50:50 but longer chain is not happen often.

[winkel]

That's because you're  misinterpreting probability.  Read more on it and you will understand why.

Do you really think and believe, that you are the only one who read about probability?
So did you read about Kolmogorof and Markov? You refused to answer this question since some posts.

and for all:
yes, after 12 red the probability for red or black is 18/37
yes the the probability for 12 red in a row is 18/37^12
BUT

the probability for a 13th red is now 18/37^13
and the probability for black is now 1-(18/37^13)
and the probability for Zero is 1-(1/37^13)

which probability is higher?


simple question and simple answer, but landis refuses to think about that.
this is stochastical correct math-way. and the all-knowing one just ignores it
Although nobody in this forums claims that due to this probability Black has to come.

[Number Six]

The probabilities only apply if you started betting at step one of the 12 reds in a row. If you see 12 reds, then dive in and bet black thinking "I'm sure to win", that is the fallacy because you're not part of that chain of events. You're starting your own chain from step one, or your first bet, which is on black, though feasibly you could easily encounter another 12 reds before black appeared. The odds are always 18/37, betting mechanically you're never more likely to win on one spin than another, regardless of how long you waited or how many outcomes you tracked. Roulette probability is mainly useless. All it does is get people in the red.

[winkel]

Number6,

did I say it would be a good bet to bet on Black?
No I didn´t !
I just told something about the math of probability and said black doesn´t have to show up

and NO: the probability, due to the so called "Law of Great number (better would be: trials)", doesn´t start with my bet, it is always there.

[simon]

these arguments can go on forever, that's ok I guess but it's too bad the original purpose of this thread is not getting accomplished which is to get the signum system explained, dissected and exposed as being any good or not, but you can't judge a system if you can't understand it, neither should you insult the teacher if you can't follow along with the class (I can't follow it, but apparently others can.)

[bombus]

these arguments can go on forever, that's ok I guess but it's too bad the original purpose of this thread is not getting accomplished which is to get the signum system explained, dissected and exposed as being any good or not, but you can't judge a system if you can't understand it, neither should you insult the teacher if you can't follow along with the class (I can't follow it, but apparently others can.)

@simon.

If you can't follow it, then I'm not even going to try...

[simon]

@simon.

If you can't follow it, then I'm not even going to try...

............. well don't go by me, I'm no genius, you could probably follow it if you tried, I just don't think it's explained well enough for me, I haven't tried real hard to understand it, I just look at it from time to time thinking ok I'll get it next time I check it, but I keep having the same reaction which is.... huh?  at this point in time I would like to sneak a plug in (and plea for help) for a system I think will be much easier to follow then the signum system, which is the 2 staking systems at once thread over in Money Management, should any of you smart guys care to check it out, could use some help and your sage opinions over there about it, thanks....

[Landis]

and for all:
yes, after 12 red the probability for red or black is 18/37
yes the the probability for 12 red in a row is 18/37^12
BUT

the probability for a 13th red is now 18/37^13
and the probability for black is now 1-(18/37^13)
and the probability for Zero is 1-(1/37^13)

which probability is higher?

Sorry Winkel, but you are wrong.  After 12 reds have just hit, the odds of a 13th red hitting just after 12 of them have already hit is still just 18/37.  The odds of black hitting are also just 18/37.  You need to read more on basic probability.

A great website to learn more is the wizardofodds.com

Rare events happen every day at the roulette table.  Take the first 100 spins.  Does anyone realize how rare of an event they are?  Before the very first spin, the odds of those numbers having hit in the exact order in which they did is for more unlikely than just 100 reds or blacks in a row.  The odds that you will see those numbers occur in that exact order again are 1/37^100.  Amazing!  The odds of 100 reds in a row is only 18/37^100.  You could also tell people that you have witnessed something as rare as 100 reds in a row by showing them the pattern of the red and black during the first hundred spins as well.   

My point is this:  Rare events happen everyday.

[winkel]

Sorry Winkel, but you are wrong.  After 12 reds have just hit, the odds of a 13th red hitting just after 12 of them have already hit is still just 18/37.  The odds of black hitting are also just 18/37.  You need to read more on basic probability.

A great website to learn more is the wizardofodds.com

Rare events happen every day at the roulette table.  Take the first 100 spins.  Does anyone realize how rare of an event they are?  Before the very first spin, the odds of those numbers having hit in the exact order in which they did is for more unlikely than just 100 reds or blacks in a row.  The odds that you will see those numbers occur in that exact order again are 1/37^100.  Amazing!  The odds of 100 reds in a row is only 18/37^100.  You could also tell people that you have witnessed something as rare as 100 reds in a row by showing them the pattern of the red and black during the first hundred spins as well.   

My point is this:  Rare events happen everyday.

you poor boy, you have to read more about advanced probability.
and not on gamblers homepaghes, but on stochastic pages

[Tangram]

You could also tell people that you have witnessed something as rare as 100 reds in a row by showing them the pattern of the red and black during the first hundred spins as well.

Every 100 spin sequence is as likely as any other only if you're looking at it from the point of view of order of outcomes. Thus, RRRRRRRRRR is as likely as RRBBRBRRBB, because when viewed as a permutation (order is important) the probability of either sequence is (18/37)¹⁰. So you can also say that a sequence of 100 reds in a row is just as likely a sequence of 100 having 45 reds which are "mixed up" with the 55 blacks. But the standard deviation (z-score) of the latter sequence is about 1.0 (not very rare at all), which is certainly not the case for the sequence of 100 consecutive reds. This is because the normal distribution is only concerned with the number of reds and blacks in a sequence, not the particular order they come in.

If you look at each sequence as a combination (order of outcomes does not matter), then the probabilities are different. For the above sequences, the probability of RRRRRRRRRR is 0.13% and the probability of
RRBBRBRRBB is 24.5%, which is also the probability of RBRBRBRBRB (because it also has 5 blacks and 5 reds).

You could also have looked at the last 2 sequences in terms of the number of streaks, or the number of patterns of length 2 in each, and you would come up with different probabilities. My point is, a sequence can have many probabilities, depending on what you're looking for, and they will all be equally valid. The basic formula is  -

Probability = No. of outcomes giving "looked for" result/Total No. of equally likely outcomes

Your understanding of probability appears to be very narrow and limited, I suggest you learn a little more about it before attempting to lecture others. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing!

[Number Six]

Sorry Winkel, but you are wrong.  After 12 reds have just hit, the odds of a 13th red hitting just after 12 of them have already hit is still just 18/37.  The odds of black hitting are also just 18/37.  You need to read more on basic probability.

A great website to learn more is the wizardofodds.com

Rare events happen every day at the roulette table.  Take the first 100 spins.  Does anyone realize how rare of an event they are?  Before the very first spin, the odds of those numbers having hit in the exact order in which they did is for more unlikely than just 100 reds or blacks in a row.  The odds that you will see those numbers occur in that exact order again are 1/37^100.  Amazing!  The odds of 100 reds in a row is only 18/37^100.  You could also tell people that you have witnessed something as rare as 100 reds in a row by showing them the pattern of the red and black during the first hundred spins as well.   

My point is this:  Rare events happen everyday.

Are you using "odds" for slang as probability, which is what imbeciles do, or do you really not know the difference? As a REAL maths guy you seem to be a bit confused.

[Tangram]

The only people Landis is fooling are those who have virtually zero knowledge of probability. Why does he keep telling us to visit the Wizard of Odds? you can't learn probability there, but it's pretty obvious he has, and that's all he knows.

[Tangram]

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