STANDARD DEVIATION BEATING EUROPEAN ROULETTE WHEELS???

[cubanopro]

Hi guys! First of all I just wanted to thank all of the members here that constantly try to bring something interesting to this forum.  I have to admit that this is by far a very fascinating forum and I find it very impressive to see how many people are trying together to finally beat the house.  Who knows? Maybe someday magic will happen. 

In the meantime I have something appealing to post here.  I have been trying out a strategy in a land based casino near my city and to be honest I have been more than surprised with the results.  Now I said to myself that it's time to share with others my experience.  Now I want to specify that I'm not here to represent any casino nor I am here to sell any kind of advertising casino crap. . .  All I want is to discuss and verify with you people (perhaps someone could write it to test it for millions of spins) if my strategy might bring a possible small return in the long term.  Obviously no system can win EVERYTIME.  To be profitable we only need to win in the long run. 

Well here I go! By the way the following explanations are done so that even a six years old could understand.  Near two months ago I posted a bit of my thoughts concerning standard deviation but it never went somewhere.  Now I have been trying this for a while (not too long unfortunately) and I have to say it has been a very positive experience.  Before starting to actually explain what my system is all about I believe it's imperative that I talk a bit about what standard deviation truly is for those having question marks in their minds right about this second. 

Standard deviation is simply a factor or a value if you prefer that determines the deviation from a standard event.  In other words, it helps establishing how much variation there is from an average or a mean.  It is mostly used in the world of statistics but could easily be useful in lots of fields and I believe it could bring an advantage in the game of roulette.  Why should we care about standard deviation??? Well we should give a special attention to it because it is the tool that will guide us into think is this truly a bad streak that I'm having or is this normal? How many of you have though that a table was rigged simply because two zeros came out in a row when you were obviously expecting a BLACK or a RED number to fall? I don't know about you but I have.  To be honest I'm only 22 years old and when I first started playing in a casino (4 years ago) I didn't know what I was doing.  With standard deviation we know how many times a zero, a dozen, a black number, a red number and all the others sections should fall.  In other words, we learn to expect.  You might say that in the game of roulette the past does not influence the future and you're right because it doesn't but I would have to say that in the long run that is no longer true.  Numbers do follow a certain pattern and I understand that it's not because 13 reds in a row came in that it automatically means a black will follow, but one thing is sure (unless the table is rigged) eventually a black will come because it's the law of averages.   

Well enough said! The best way to explain something is by demonstrating it with an example.

This is what I meant by expecting what should fall:
Standard deviation in its simplest form has a formula that is: the number of events multiplied by the chance that the event has of happening and multiplied again by the chance that the event has of NOT happening.  Everything squared root gives us the first level of standard deviation. 

Example #1:
Lets say that we would like to calculate how many times every dozen is expected to fall in 12 spins.  Well this is very simple.

Number of events: 12 spins
Chance of happening: 12/37
Chance of not happening: 25/37

Formula:  √[12*(12/37)*(25/37)] = 1. 6216

There we go it is as simple as that! The number above represents the first degree or level in the standard deviation.  There could be as many levels as you would like but mainly the most common ones are the first 3.  Each one represents a percentage and that is when it becomes useful.  The first level is 68%, the second is 95% and the third is 99. 7%.

Notice that when I first started explaining what the standard deviation was I mentioned the words ''variation from an average''.  In this case the average would be how many times each and every dozen is expected to fall.

Mean:  12*(12/37) = 3. 8918

Now we must take into consideration that if there was no zero it would simply be 12/3= 4 but since we have 37 numbers and NOT 36 (something people tend to forget) the result is a slight lower than 4.  Furthermore, if we want to know how many times should each dozen fall in 12 spins we simply add and subtract the deviation to the mean which in this case is 1. 6216.

3. 8918 - 1. 6216 = 2. 2702 ≈ 2
3. 8918 + 1. 6216 = 5. 5134 ≈ 6

This means that 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 2 and 6 times every 12 spins.  If we were to calculate the second one (95%) we would only need to multiply 1. 6216 by 2 and finally if we were to calculate the third one (99,7%) we would only need to multiply 1. 6216 by 3. 
   
Ok now that we have formally established what a standard deviation is lets get into the details of how I use it to make money.  First of all I would like to mention that I'm not a person who likes to gamble, what I am is a person who likes making money.  There is a HUGE difference.  This means that whether I win or lose I treat this as a business and not as a ''lucky day'' at the casino.  I always know in advance how much I am willing to lose and I also have a limit in my mind of much I will win before I leave.  I believe that the majority of humans (myself included of course) have what I call a thirst for money and for the feeling of being wealthy and when winning that thirst increases and consequently affects our judgement making us vulnerable.  The moment we stop being rational is the moment the real bad streak starts and that is why I never stop going by the book.  If you have a system follow it to the very core and stick to it. 


The system :

First of all I would like to mention that I lose very often, but I still win in the long term which is the only thing that truly matters.  In fact I lose so often that it comes near to 32% of the time.  To create my system I first calculated the first standard deviation for dozens and rows and found out that every 5 spins 68 % of the time each dozen or row will fall between 1 and 3 times.  I then said to myself that I could start betting on a dozen that has been missing for two spins and then I could start betting and that's exactly what I did. 

68% of the time between 1 and 3 also means that 32% of the time each dozen or row will fall between 0 times or more than 3 times every 5 spins.  So for example if I want to bet on a single dozen I wait to have at least two dozens and then I bet but never exceeding 5 spins.  Lets pretend the following sequence: ***(The following numbers refer to the dozen and the actual number)

1, 1, 2, 0, 3
In this scenario I would have win because it falls under the 68% category.  Dozen #1, #2 and #3 all came up between 1 and 3 times in 5 spins.  I would have started betting on dozen #3 after the third spin because dozen #1 and #2 had fall previously.  Next sequence:

2, 2, 2, 3, 2
In this scenario I would have lost because it falls under the 32% category.  Dozen #1 didn't show up once in 5 spins and not to mention that dozen #2 fell more than 3 times.  I would have started betting on dozen #1 after the fourth spin because #2 and #3 had fall previously.  Next sequence:

1,1,1,1,1
In this scenario I would not bet but it would still be in the 32% category since dozen #1 fell more than 3 times and dozen #2 and #3 never came out.  Since no other dozen was there I did not bet. 

As you can see, sometimes it's neutral, sometimes I lose (less than 32%) but most of the time (68%) I win.  Now the second most important part of this system is the betting.  Even tough I win over twice as much as I lose it's important to make sure the losses in the amount of money are not twice higher than the gains or else there is no profit left.  You can bet as you want but I bet the following: (the casino I play have a minimum of 25$ per exterior bet)

The maximum that I bet is three times since I only bet after two dozens have shown their faces and I also stop betting once a fifth number is out.  Therefore the sequence that expose me the most are those containing three bets.   

First bet 25$
Second bet 25$
Third bet 100$            

Like I said this system has been very profitable for me.  When I win my first bet I have a profit of 50$.  When I win my second bet I have a profit of 25$.  Finally when I win my third bet I have a profit of 150$.  On average you could say that when I win it's around 75$

When I lose the third bet it costs me 150$ which is exactly 2 times what I win.  I am profitable only in the long term because even though I only make on average 75$ and lose 150$ I win 68% of the time and lose less than 32% of the time.  Now lets pretend that I would lose 32% this would mean that I would win:

68/32 = 2. 125 times more often than I would lose.  Therefore I win by 0. 125 which is more than enough.  But it gets better!

When I only bet 2 times because a second dozen only showed up on the third spin I bet:

First bet 25$
Second bet 50$

Which means that on average I would win around 63$ profit and would lose only 75$ which is only 1. 2 times bigger.  Now the difference is no longer 0. 125 but 0. 925 which is very attractive.  And now even BETTER!

When I only bet 1 time because a second dozen only showed up on the fourth spin I bet:

First bet 25$

Which means that I would win 50$ profit and would lose only 25$ which is not even bigger than my win but in fact smaller.  Risk ratio for this situation is 1:2 which means that for every dollar I risk I have a chance of winning two.  That's a 200% return on investment. 

Ok so now comment as much as you want.  I think I have covered everything and if not. . . well I will have to write it in a separate post because I'm tired of writing and you must be tired of reading.  I wish the best of luck to everyone and also NEVER EVER FORGET to be rational when betting or else you could lose it all in a glance, and never bet money you can't lose!

Cubano
PS: Please God let the criticism to come be a constructive one. . .

[cubanopro]

First standard deviation = 1.6216

There we go it is as simple as that! The number above represents the first degree or level in the standard deviation. There could be as many levels as you would like but mainly the most common ones are the first 3. Each one represents a percentage and that is when it becomes useful. The first level is 68%, the second is 95% and the third is 99.7%.

Notice that when I first started explaining what the standard deviation was I mentioned the words ''variation from an average''. In this case the average would be how many times each and every dozen is expected to fall.

Mean:  12*(12/37) = 3.8918

Now we must take into consideration that if there was no zero it would simply be 12/3= 4 but since we have 37 numbers and NOT 36 (something people tend to forget) the result is a slight lower than 4. Furthermore, if we want to know how many times should each dozen fall in 12 spins we simply add and subtract the deviation to the mean which in this case is 1.6216.

3.8918 - 1.6216 = 2.2702 ≈ 2
3.8918 + 1.6216 = 5.5134 ≈ 6

This means that 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 2 and 6 times every 12 spins. If we were to calculate the second one (95%) we would only need to multiply 1.6216 by 2 and finally if we were to calculate the third one (99,7%) we would only need to multiply 1.6216 by 3.
     
Ok now that we have formally established what a standard deviation is lets get into the details of how I use it to make money. First of all I would like to mention that I'm not a person who likes to gamble, what I am is a person who likes making money. There is a HUGE difference. This means that whether I win or lose I treat this as a business and not as a ''lucky day'' at the casino. I always know in advance how much I am willing to lose and I also have a limit in my mind of much I will win before I leave. I believe that the majority of humans (myself included of course) have what I call a thirst for money and for the feeling of being wealthy and when winning that thirst increases and consequently affects our judgement making us vulnerable. The moment we stop being rational is the moment the real bad streak starts and that is why I never stop going by the book. If you have a system follow it to the very core and stick to it.


The system :

First of all I would like to mention that I lose very often, but I still win in the long term which is the only thing that truly matters. In fact I lose so often that it comes near to 32% of the time. To create my system I first calculated the first standard deviation for dozens and rows and found out that every 5 spins 68 % of the time each dozen or row will fall between 1 and 3 times. I then said to myself that I could start betting on a dozen that has been missing for two spins and then I could start betting and that's exactly what I did.

68% of the time between 1 and 3 also means that 32% of the time each dozen or row will fall between 0 times or more than 3 times every 5 spins. So for example if I want to bet on a single dozen I wait to have at least two dozens and then I bet but never exceeding 5 spins. Lets pretend the following sequence: ***(The following numbers refer to the dozen and the actual number)

1, 1, 2, 0, 3
In this scenario I would have win because it falls under the 68% category. Dozen #1, #2 and #3 all came up between 1 and 3 times in 5 spins. I would have started betting on dozen #3 after the third spin because dozen #1 and #2 had fall previously. Next sequence:

2, 2, 2, 3, 2
In this scenario I would have lost because it falls under the 32% category. Dozen #1 didn't show up once in 5 spins and not to mention that dozen #2 fell more than 3 times. I would have started betting on dozen #1 after the fourth spin because #2 and #3 had fall previously. Next sequence:

1,1,1,1,1
In this scenario I would not bet but it would still be in the 32% category since dozen #1 fell more than 3 times and dozen #2 and #3 never came out. Since no other dozen was there I did not bet.

As you can see, sometimes it's neutral, sometimes I lose (less than 32%) but most of the time (68%) I win. Now the second most important part of this system is the betting. Even tough I win over twice as much as I lose it's important to make sure the losses in the amount of money are not twice higher than the gains or else there is no profit left. You can bet as you want but I bet the following: (the casino I play have a minimum of 25$ per exterior bet)

The maximum that I bet is three times since I only bet after two dozens have shown their faces and I also stop betting once a fifth number is out. Therefore the sequence that expose me the most are those containing three bets.   

First bet 25$
Second bet 25$
Third bet 100$             

Like I said this system has been very profitable for me. When I win my first bet I have a profit of 50$. When I win my second bet I have a profit of 25$. Finally when I win my third bet I have a profit of 150$. On average you could say that when I win it's around 75$

When I lose the third bet it costs me 150$ which is exactly 2 times what I win. I am profitable only in the long term because even though I only make on average 75$ and lose 150$ I win 68% of the time and lose less than 32% of the time. Now lets pretend that I would lose 32% this would mean that I would win:

68/32 = 2.125 times more often than I would lose. Therefore I win by 0.125 which is more than enough. But it gets better!

When I only bet 2 times because a second dozen only showed up on the third spin I bet:

First bet 25$
Second bet 50$

Which means that on average I would win around 63$ profit and would lose only 75$ which is only 1.2 times bigger. Now the difference is no longer 0.125 but 0.925 which is very attractive. And now even BETTER!

When I only bet 1 time because a second dozen only showed up on the fourth spin I bet:

First bet 25$

Which means that I would win 50$ profit and would lose only 25$ which is not even bigger than my win but in fact smaller. Risk ratio for this situation is 1:2 which means that for every dollar I risk I have a chance of winning two. That's a 200% return on investment.

Ok so now comment as much as you want. I think I have covered everything and if not...well I will have to write it in a separate post because I'm tired of writing and you must be tired of reading. I wish the best of luck to everyone and also NEVER EVER FORGET to be rational when betting or else you could lose it all in a glance, and never bet money you can't lose!

Cubano
PS: Please God let the criticism to come be a constructive one...

[The Spiders Kiss]

Hi
Thanks for posting.   
I guess the first question is:
Approximately how many spins have you played this for?
BTW you WILL get criticism in here so brace yourself. It will be along any time now....

The Spiders Kiss

[Nathan Detroit]

Why   be so   paranoid about criticism ??  If a person likes to play a certain way  so be it .  If he believes in this method that`s his  and only his choice  alone. Only time will tell  after spending time in the  trenches. ( B & M Casino) and having put the  "tochas  ofn tish. " **.( money in action freely translated)


Nathan Detroit




** tochas ofn tish >>> A$$ on the table.

[Allin]

Hi Cubanopro,

Thanks for the details.  But how do you do bet selection in this case, for example on dozens.

How to you pick which dozen may fall under 68% category.

If you can cut into smaller examples it will be great and we can test your theory. May be I did not get your theory correctly.

[cubanopro]

Hi
Thanks for posting.  
I guess the first question is:
Approximately how many spins have you played this for?
BTW you WILL get criticism in here so brace yourself. It will be along any time now....

The Spiders Kiss

Hi The Spider Kiss! Like I mentioned above by saying: unfortunately not too much experience. I would have to say now that it has been 6-7 months that I play 4 days a week approximately 1 hour or a bit more per session. Depending on nights (I usually don't go on very busy nights because it's very slow when too many people playing at the same time), I play around 25-30 spins per session. I would say that I have tested this system for around 3000 spins which like I said is not a lot... to test something it is critical that the sample size be big enough or else the results good or bad simply won't matter.  

By the way guys lol I'm not afraid of criticism I jsut don't like when people start going over the line with insults and others comments saying they're system is not worth sh***... that's why I only ask for Constructive criticism that we keep a mutual respect.

Afterall it's not like I'm forcing people to use my system... lol do whatever you want. I'm just trying to do my part here for this community.

Cubano

[cubanopro]

Hi Cubanopro,

Thanks for the details.  But how do you do bet selection in this case, for example on dozens.

How to you pick which dozen may fall under 68% category.

If you can cut into smaller examples it will be great and we can test your theory. May be I did not get your theory correctly.

Hi Allin and thanks for your interest! I do not get to pick anything I simply know by fact that 68% of the time each dozen should fall between 1 and 3 times. That means that the minute I see two dozens show up I automatically start betting on the remaining and depending how far along we are on the sequence of 5 bets, the bets will differ. For example:

1,2

Now I have to bet.. I place 25$ on third dozen.

1,2,0

I lost but now I keep betting because the 5 spins are not over. We have only seen 3 numbers up until now. I now bet 25$ on the same dozen.

1,2,0,1

I lost again but I have to keep going till the fifth number is out. I now bet 100 $ on third dozen.

1,2,0,1,3

Now I won my bet! Notice that when the situation is part of the 68 % I always win. I repeat the sentence once again: 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 1 and 3 times every 5 spins. Now let's check if that is true:

Dozen 1: 2 times in 5 spins
Dozen 2: 1 time in 5 spins
Dozen 3: 1 time in 5 spins

Since none of them fell more than 3 times or less than 1 time, it automatically falls under the 68% category and it's a sure win.

Cubano

[Far-Q]

Do you retrack on a win or loss or roll the results?

[Jean-Claud]

So u are betting with this progression: 1,1,2,3,4  ?So the loss will be 11 chips

It reminds me of the ZONE...and it was a loser like all systems

[Allin]

Hi Cubanopro,

Got it thanks.

Another query...

"1,2,0,1,3

Now I won my bet! Notice that when the situation is part of the 68 % I always win. I repeat the sentence once again: 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 1 and 3 times every 5 spins. Now let's check if that is true:"
In the above example we have 2 series"

[1,2],0,1,3....Series 1
1,2,0,[1,3] ...Start bet middle/2nd dozen from here Series 2

Correct?

Let me calculate the average first then we move to Money management portion.

[beretta28]

1)According to your experience(up and down of your deficit) what's the necessary total bankroll and  the session bankroll in units?
Stop loss and stop win?

2)If I'm not mistaken you play always the three terms progression(1,1,4)because after two spins you have either two different columns or two differents dozen almost all the time. . . .


Thanks

[cubanopro]

Do you retrack on a win or loss or roll the results?

I'm not sure what you mean by this but if what you are referring to is if I wait after a loss or win the answer is yes.
I always wait for the 5 spins to finish (loss or win).

Hope this clears up your question!

Cubano

[cubanopro]

So u are betting with this progression: 1,1,2,3,4  ?So the loss will be 11 chips

It reminds me of the ZONE...and it was a loser like all systems

Hi, I'm sorry my friend but I do not know what you're talking about... When in my explanations did I ever mentioned something about losses of 11 chips? The progression I use is a very small one. It could either be 3 bets (25$, 25$ and 100$), 2 bets (25$, 50$) or 1 bet (no progression here).

But I still appreciate for taking the time to read my post.
Good day!  

Cubano

[cubanopro]

Hi Cubanopro,

Got it thanks.

Another query...

"1,2,0,1,3

Now I won my bet! Notice that when the situation is part of the 68 % I always win. I repeat the sentence once again: 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 1 and 3 times every 5 spins. Now let's check if that is true:"
In the above example we have 2 series"

[1,2],0,1,3....Series 1
1,2,0,[1,3] ...Start bet middle/2nd dozen from here Series 2

I don't understand what you mean by series... I never mentioned anything about a series.
With the example I that I gave I only wanted to illustrate that in those 5 spins all dozens had gone out at least 1 time and never more than 3 times. Which makes it a winning combination. Ask me again if you still can't follow but seems to me it seems harder to understand than what it really is... It's really simple once you get the point.

Cubano  

[Jean-Claud]

If u don t bet with progression 1,1,2,3,4 then if u will win in the 5th attempt u will be -.
U don t know how to explain things...but u like to explain things.hehe

[Jean-Claud]

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