STANDARD DEVIATION BEATING EUROPEAN ROULETTE WHEELS???

[ludo8400]

@cubanopro

nolinks://nolinks.westspiel.de/DO_HOHENSYBURG/Klassisches-Spiel/Permanenzen/132672,1031,132636,-1.aspx

Hello
here you can find every day live roulette results and archives from 28 tables for your game
When I have time I will make some tests in Excel and put the results in your item.


regards
Ludo8400

[Herb6]

Cubanpro,

You shouldn't need to test this.  Read more before wasting your time on it.  Start with the wizardofodds.com
Also read on the gambler's fallacy.

Good luck.

-Herb6

[ludo8400]

[reddwarf]

Hi Ludo,

I think that you made a mistake, a session consists out of maximal 5 spins, so if you win after the 3rd spin, a new session is started. That does not matter much however because it is a very fast loosing system.

To be honest I'm very suspicious as the "fingerprint" of this system reminds  me a lot a the scams of this guy who said that a maths boy cracked roulette, or that a casino programmer found an errorin the rng software.

So what is the fingerprint?

1. very helpful, does not want to make money himself but really wants us to make money
2. specialized in dozen and column bets
3. always waiting before betting (this will actually cause the gambler to discover later (too late) that this is a loosing system)


I may be wrong, but this is what I suspect. For people interested, I attached several tests. So you do not have to try it in the casino and loose this months salary (test 1 and 2) (true, you might double it (test 0), and than get the idea that it works, but you will loose tremendously in the end), because of 100.000 spins it's a sure looser

[cubanopro]

Hi fellas! I just wanted to say that I believe this is the end of our journey! Although this was an interesting post I have now mathematical proof that my system won't work in the long run. Another person from another forum helped me out by explaining me why it could not work over many spins. I think it's imperative that I show you the message he wrote me so that you too can benefit from it. Perhaps you can understand why it wouldn't work in the long term.

''I'm sorry to disappoint you, but your system will not work. I will post this at the website as soon as the administrator approves my registration.

Your basic logic is sound, but your numbers are a bit sloppy. When you refine the numbers, the expectation turns negative. I don't doubt you have had success, but it was luck. Every five spins, this system loses an average of $1.82, but the standard deviation is huge, $87.64. That means it takes about 2,500 sequences of five spins before your negative expectation equals your standard deviation. Even at that point, there is one chance in six you will be ahead by luck.

To start with, your formula based on standard deviation is only an approximation. The chance of every column appearing between 1 and 3 times in five spins is actually 59%, not 68%. Things are a little better than that for your system, because 5% of the time only one column will appear, so only 36% of the time do you lose because two columns appeared but not three. If you ignore the 5% of the time you don't bet, you win 62% of the time and lose 38%. But that means you win only 1.65 times as often as you lose, not 2.125.

Next consider the amounts you win and lose. There are seven possible outcomes from your system, listed below with probability, result, reason:

9% +$150, win on third bet
31% +$50, win on first bet
19% +$25, win on second bet
5%, $0, don't bet
6% -$25, lose one bet
11% -$50, lose on second bet
19% -$150, lose on third bet

Overall, you win an average of $57.71 59% of the time and lose an average of $100.02 36% of the time (5% of the time is no bet). Your expected value from the series of five spins is -$1.82.

There is no way to adjust the system to make it work. Unless you think the roulette wheel is biased (which is bad for your system) or has a memory, each bet has negative expectation. Without some way to predict the next number, systems like this cannot work.''

Let this be an example of why systems using only statistics won't work in the long run. **Each bet has negative expectation. Now I have the proof I needed to stop playing...eventually I will lose it all if I continue.
I wish you all a good day! And for those that genuinely believed I worked for a casino or something like that, well what can I say...I guess it's not every day you see a guy that from its own good will wants to share a winning technique. Besides I never said it was the Holy Grail I simply said that it was, at the moment, working for me and I needed to know if it could work in the long term.   
Cubano

[cubanopro]

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