What Rare Events (If Any) Actually Matter When it Comes to System Designing

[Number Six]

If you play any system or method that involves tracking past spins looking for sequences/triggers it is fallacious and therefore incorporates some element of the fallacy. Anyone who says otherwise must be able to fire thunderbolts out of his ass. If you're looking for a specific set of fixed circumstances or events, then bet with them or against them you are a system player and know nothing about randomness, because if you did you'd know those circumstances aren't always going to go in your favour. That's why systems fail. It's a simple fact that most people are desperate enough to ignore....hell, some people even argue that it's a bunch of BS. Doubtless nearly everyone uses a progression, which means the system is actually a time bomb. You might win 99 session in 100, but the one you lose (when you get inevitably BULLDOZED by the randomness, wipes out everything). Situational betting is more effective as it's constricted by less rules than a system and doesn't rely on x or y, but it's still fallacious - that doesn't mean, though, that you can't become a proficient tactical bettor and win consistently. 

[Herb]

Arnt table limits there because of this ''Rare events (if any)''

No, the table limits are there to protect the casino against cheating.  It protects the casino from a single high bet where the player/dealer could cheat.  It is most certainly NOT in place to prevent up as you lose system players from winning.

[VLSroulette]

RJ, listen.

There is an "ethereal infinite sample" on which every possible numerical sequence is realized... a sequence of 1000 reds in a row? No problem, it is there at the ethereal infinite numerical sample. All the combinations are in fact assumed to be realized there at such level...

Also, there are "worldwide" actuals, which are those limited to the ones experienced since the wheel is spinning in our planet.

Our world record may not be at 1000 reds in a row simply because there are not enough played spins yet, in fact, worldwide record can very well be at less than 40 reds in a row.

And now the set of actuals that matters the most: The one belonging to the player. A single player's personal record may not even reach 20 reds in a row... Such a single player can be betting the martingale his whole life after 10 in a row and end up in profit. My point?

You only need to beat YOUR personal set of actuals. You do not need to "beat the world" nor "beat infinity" to be profitable ... All that matters is what happens in the actual numerical sample you experience with your real money bets. This is limited, this isn't forever. We bettors are mortals and hence are not exposed to infinity and won't see every numerical sequence realized. This is a fact. It is NOT insane to take this as a starting point.

Also, while you can't take infinity to compare against (everything is already realized) you CAN (and frankly should) guide by worldwide records: You either win your whole stay on earth or set a new record for the planet

[bombus]

Victor is right... forget about the 'ethereal infinite sample'. It has no place in the smallness of real life roulette sessions.

Number six is right... whatever you do, incorporate some randomness circumvention (is that possible?), and initially try and do it without any progression.

Mattjono is right... of course the table limit is there to stop controlled progressions from gaining an edge. We'd all be filthy rich and casinos would all be closed if there were no limits. It could stop cheating too I suppose.

Herb is right... (Within a practical sense) you can't change the math as we know it.

MrJ is right *cough* It is "possible" to turn a blind eye to 'gamblers fallacy' and continue on your merry way to profits, luck will play a part though, guaranteed.   

[Spike]

Doubtless nearly everyone uses a progression, which means the system is actually a time bomb.>>>

Most people are part time players. They use a progression and because they are up, money wise, they think gamblers fallacy is a joke or wrong or doesn't apply to them. They have yet to hit those back to back to back losing sessions that wipe out all the profits from the last 30 winning sessions. Its coming, just leave them to their ignorance. Its easy to be optomistic when you don't understand the game your playing and you're winning.

[rjeaton1]

Doubtless nearly everyone uses a progression, which means the system is actually a time bomb.>>>

Most people are part time players. They use a progression and because they are up, money wise, they think gamblers fallacy is a joke or wrong or doesn't apply to them. They have yet to hit those back to back to back losing sessions that wipe out all the profits from the last 30 winning sessions. Its coming, just leave them to their ignorance. Its easy to be optomistic when you don't understand the game your playing and you're winning.

I agree with the fact that progression systems can be time bombs.  It has happened to me (I was up over $5,000 in a period of about a week or so...then lost all of it in a day or two plus some of my own money...terrible stuff...)

But, anyway... I urge you take a look at this thread and the post in that thread this link takes you too: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=10446.msg66763#msg66763

If you don't feel like reading it all, that's fine with me, I'll go over the point I'm trying to make here.

That system involves progression betting.  It has made over 1,000 units in over 100,000 spins with a max drawdown of just over 100 units.

Now, am I going to lose eventually or have the progression busted?  More than likely, yes.  Which is why there are two safety measures built into that system.  They are as follows:

If it goes past 7 bets into the progression it stop betting and tracks new numbers and waits for the next betting opportunity.  The next time a betting opportunity arises it starts betting with a newly calculated progression that tries to win back the previous losses from the last lost 7 step progression....HOWEVER, if in those 7 bets it lost more than 200 units the next time a betting opportunity arises it does not try to win back any previous losses.

Also, if it loses more than 200 units BEFORE it has reached the 7 bets in a row it also quits betting and re-tracks new numbers.  When the next betting opportunity arises it will not try to win back those previous losses.

So, if you have a consistent winner with a system that involves progression betting that wins more often than it busts a progression, you can come to a "common drawdown" point.  At this point you stop the progression and start over again.

The system mentioned in that thread I've linked too has won over 1000 units.  I can lose 5 times CONSECUTIVELY and still just end up back where I started in terms of my BR.  So, my point is, a progression betting system does not HAVE to end either winning or in a "end of the world" type scenario where you want to leave the casino crying. (as I've unfortunately had to experience...)

[Mr J]

Bottomfeeder Bombus as usual is pissed because he cant win, this is his way of venting. He claims *cough* he also wins but sure spends more time on message boards, rather than actually playing. I find that suspicious and odd.  Ken

[rjeaton1]

RJ, listen.

There is an "ethereal infinite sample" on which every possible numerical sequence is realized... a sequence of 1000 reds in a row? No problem, it is there at the ethereal infinite numerical sample. All the combinations are in fact assumed to be realized there at such level...

Also, there are "worldwide" actuals, which are those limited to the ones experienced since the wheel is spinning in our planet.

Our world record may not be at 1000 reds in a row simply because there are not enough played spins yet, in fact, worldwide record can very well be at less than 40 reds in a row.

And now the set of actuals that matters the most: The one belonging to the player. A single player's personal record may not even reach 20 reds in a row... Such a single player can be betting the martingale his whole life after 10 in a row and end up in profit. My point?

You only need to beat YOUR personal set of actuals. You do not need to "beat the world" nor "beat infinity" to be profitable ... All that matters is what happens in the actual numerical sample you experience with your real money bets. This is limited, this isn't forever. We bettors are mortals and hence are not exposed to infinity and won't see every numerical sequence realized. This is a fact. It is NOT insane to take this as a starting point.

Also, while you can't take infinity to compare against (everything is already realized) you CAN (and frankly should) guide by worldwide records: You either win your whole stay on earth or set a new record for the planet

Yet again Victor, your thoughts are infinitely helpful! ;

I've been trying to come up with a way to word what exactly it was I was trying to get at, and you've hit the nail on the head.

Thanks!

[Mr J]

Another point/question that does not get talked about too much...... Lets say my average loss on a progression is $2,800. In the past two months (with my new method) my AVERAGES have been (I'll use 3 visits for example) +$2,500 -- +$3,300, twice and THEN lose $2,800. Yes I know, type your speach again. But Ken, but Ken!!! Just watch, you'll lose it all back. Maybe, but at least I can say I have the balls to play/find out. Can you? (then the funny response back is....."heck no, I wouldn't be that stupid to even try") Thats ok, keep on with the speaches and the quotes from 200 years ago. On this board, I would say maybe 25 posters actually play the game and maybe 8 of those, have the guts to lay their ass on the line. Guys like Herb, Spike, Bottomfeeder Bombus, Number Six ETC ETC ETC ETC, why listen to them? I get nothing out of it.  Ken

[Spike]

Maybe, but at least I can say I have the balls to play/find out. Can you?>>>

Thats like saying I jumped off the roof and nothing happened and I have the balls to do it again. It proves nothing. You should enjoy your winnings and quit worrying about it. The math is definately against you and you can't cheat the math forever, thats a fact. Just be aware that what you're doing won't last and be prepared for the correction. Who knows, because you play part time it may take awhile. If you played every day, it would probably be a different story. Lucky streaks have been known to last years if you don't push it.

[Mr J]

I like analogies just like you Spike. Not sure if I agree with THAT one but no biggie. Speaking of "worrying". Its funny, some days I could careless about the negative posters and some days it bothers me. I win, I pay bills, nothing fancy about it.  Ken

[bombus]

I agree with the fact that progression systems can be time bombs.  It has happened to me (I was up over $5,000 in a period of about a week or so...then lost all of it in a day or two plus some of my own money...terrible stuff...)

But, anyway... I urge you take a look at this thread and the post in that thread this link takes you too: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=10446.msg66763#msg66763

If you don't feel like reading it all, that's fine with me, I'll go over the point I'm trying to make here.

That system involves progression betting.  It has made over 1,000 units in over 100,000 spins with a max drawdown of just over 100 units.

Now, am I going to lose eventually or have the progression busted?  More than likely, yes.  Which is why there are two safety measures built into that system.  They are as follows:

If it goes past 7 bets into the progression it stop betting and tracks new numbers and waits for the next betting opportunity.  The next time a betting opportunity arises it starts betting with a newly calculated progression that tries to win back the previous losses from the last lost 7 step progression....HOWEVER, if in those 7 bets it lost more than 200 units the next time a betting opportunity arises it does not try to win back any previous losses.

Also, if it loses more than 200 units BEFORE it has reached the 7 bets in a row it also quits betting and re-tracks new numbers.  When the next betting opportunity arises it will not try to win back those previous losses.

So, if you have a consistent winner with a system that involves progression betting that wins more often than it busts a progression, you can come to a "common drawdown" point.  At this point you stop the progression and start over again.

The system mentioned in that thread I've linked too has won over 1000 units.  I can lose 5 times CONSECUTIVELY and still just end up back where I started in terms of my BR.  So, my point is, a progression betting system does not HAVE to end either winning or in a "end of the world" type scenario where you want to leave the casino crying. (as I've unfortunately had to experience...)

RJ, I think you partially answered your own question above.

"What Rare Events (If Any) Actually Matter When it Comes to System Designing"

The "rare event" of progression busting corrections actually matter when it comes to system designing.

[Number Six]

I like analogies just like you Spike. Not sure if I agree with THAT one but no biggie. Speaking of "worrying". Its funny, some days I could careless about the negative posters and some days it bothers me. I win, I pay bills, nothing fancy about it.  Ken

So according to you a person who has their head screwed on is a negative poster? Don't blame us because you haven't got the mental capacity to see past progressive betting. All you talk about is what is "due", the definition of "due", can something be "due", is the number 14 "due" because it hasn't appeared for 600 spins. Your winning is down to luck. You won a bunch of dollars a few times, then lost a bunch of dollars. You're ahead a bunch of dollars. Take some maths lessons and understand that you're lucky. You haven't got anything special. Your bet selection is flawed and useless, that's why you use a progression. The progression makes you feel secure because the event you're backing is surely "due". And the only time you put your ass on the line is when you preach the nonexistence of gambler's fallacy...oh, and also when you rely on that "due" event to pay your bills. You sound like a degenerate gambler. I wouldn't be surprised if you're an addict. I hope you're not.

[Mr J]

"Your bet selection is flawed and useless" >>> You dont even know it. LOL As far as the word "due", I have not used that word in a long time. If you follow along like the third grader I know you are, I prefer to say "more likely to hit" *AND* my new method has NOTHING to do with using past numbers, ALSO which I posted more than once. Dont blame you??? lol I should thank you, not blame you. If it was not for fellas such as yourself, I could not of made some VERY NICE profits. I thank you for that. I need guys like you to post. It helps me MORE than you know. lol I know this coolbreeze >>> For every 3 visits, I am up around around 3K. I go to the casino 2-4 times per week. Average play time is 7-10 hours. I win, you dont. Keep on venting Number Six, we're all here for you bro. ROFL  Ken

[Mr J]

Another thing for anyone reading........follow the question. What "type" of person do you think would post "bitter" to another poster who is doing well? Think about it, easy answer.  Ken

[Mr J]

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