Past vs. Future spins, Logic vs. Mathematics

[JHM]

Oke,.

Spins from the past have no influence on future spins?
The sessions we play are short (in term to the millions spins the table makes).
So we don't have to look to past spins?

When black hit 8 times a row, mathematically seen the next spin is Red/Black (or zero) it's 48,64%. But it would make more logic that red will hit, when we look to the past.

Al our systems are based on past spins. Or else we would play every spin.

How important are past spins? We only see the past from a few spins vs. millions that foregoing.

So do we need to rely on past spins? No.
Can we make a system that will beat the casino's 2.7% advantage? No.

Like Albert Einstein said "The only way you can beat a roulette table is if you steal from it''.

Are we looking for something that isn't there?

I'm in a negative mood right now  .

Please debate...

[gizmotron]

If you pursue Roulette from the odds as your guide then you will achieve just that.

Please explain the odds for playing the illusion of order caused by taking snapshots of independent points in randomness along a continuous data stream. When does math tell you that a streak of 8 Blacks will happen? What are the odds for when 20 singles in the dozens will happen? What are the odds for when the red and the blacks flow in repeats of 4 at a time for each, alternating perfectly for an hour?

It always surprises me that anyone that believes that the odds are all that there is still wants to be seen discussing Roulette or gambling. What equation defines the logic of that?

[ChickenDinner]

Spins from the past do influence future spins; if they didn't we would see more extremities such as 50 reds in a row, or 1 number repeating 20 times, etc.

If I ever saw 40 reds in a row, I could go Martingale on red with 99.9% confidence that I would win and this because of the influence of past spins.

Then again, knowing my luck I would probably go bust on the 50th repeat .

For me, past spins can often be a good indication to the possibility of a certain wave occurring that I can exploit, but I'll be damn sure to start betting less or even stop betting altogether at the very first sign that the wheel is trying to dupe me (into thinking that a certain pattern is about to show and then do something completely different).

I like to think of the roulette wheel as an eccentric friend. On some days she is prone to lying and deceit, but on others she is honest and reliable. Others she is honest one minute and deceitful the next. The only reason I stay friends with her is because she is generally honest on more occasions than she is deceitful. But I must always try to identify her moods and swiftly adjust my game accordingly. If she's been honest for the past hour, I won't let this dupe me into thinking that she will be honest all night...

CD

[winkel]

Look out the window! How´s the weather over there?

Do you think that weather is influenced by millions of facts? That it is quite random as Roulette-Spins?

Does yesterday's weather have influence on today´s?
Does today's weather have influence on tomorrow´s?
Does yesterday's weather have influence on tomorrow's?

does weather change in a second? in a minute? in an hour? in a day?

br
winkel

[Herb]

Winkel,

I know what you're saying.  Yes weather is influenced by what happened before.

However, roulette is a game of independent trials where there isn't a connection to the last spin.

The live game is a little different in that, the previous outcome can influence where the dealer puts the ball back into play.

[gizmotron]

Herb, good buddy. - "However, roulette is a game of independent trials where there isn't a connection to the last spin."

Please explain to me what I get when I combine independent trials in a data stream where spin one comes before spin two sequentially and where spin three comes after spin two etc...

There is a connection to the last spin in that regard.

[winkel]

Winkel,

I know what you're saying.  Yes weather is influenced by what happened before.

However, roulette is a game of independent trials where there isn't a connection to the last spin.

The live game is a little different in that, the previous outcome can influence where the dealer puts the ball back into play.

as the great Markov said:
between two independent trials there´s a hidden sequence we don´t know, we just can watch the results.
This theory is known as HMS Hidden Markov Sequency

br
winkel

[gizmotron]

Wonderful,

nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidden_Markov_model

"A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov process with unknown parameters, and the challenge is to determine the hidden parameters from the observable parameters. The extracted model parameters can then be used to perform further analysis, for example for pattern recognition applications."

Finally, there is a model for an argument in refined academia that puts the recognition issue in the column of accepted thinking.

Thank you Winkel,

The door swings wide open. I'm rewarded for one year of attempted sharing.

nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward-backward_algorithm

"The forward and backward steps are often called "forward message pass" and "backward message pass". The wording originates from the way the algorithm processes the given observation sequence. First the algorithm moves forward starting with the first observation in the sequence and going to the last, and then returning back to the first. At each single observation in the sequence probabilities to be used for calculations at the next observation are computed. During the backward pass the algorithm simultaneously performs the smoothing step. This step allows the algorithm to take into account any past observations of output for computing more accurate results."

I'm going to learn everything I can about this and apply it to research in applying it to Roulette.

Fantastic.

[winkel]

Hi gizmo,

it is all bound into to my G.U.T

If you read now you will understand what´s going on and what is the best decision to bet.

br
winkel

[gizmotron]

Oh, isn't that clever. I love it. I also hate the charting method. You have a reduction plan for limiting betting on the coldest numbers while closing in on them finally hitting. Did you know that while this closing in on the last numbers to hit there is an opposite group that is hitting at least twice? I just love doing that.

I haven't read far enough yet to see if you cover the double winners too. Brilliant deduction. Where did you get this? Is this an original idea of yours?

Here are some things that you must have learned. You must start over the charts while there are at least 6 numbers left that have not hit yet. It would be smarter to corner the last half and to start betting on the last third while starting new staggered charts all the time while playing. In other words it would be wise to go after bets that are smaller and that are part of optimal times that these smaller bets tend to happen.

Am I right? Do you start new charts after say 18 spins? Perhaps after 12 spins?

Well I'm impressed with page one.

[Lanky]

Hi gizmotron .

I'll look at it. I might love it or hate it, but I will never personally attack you if I ever disagree with your findings.

Mate that is Outstanding.

We should all take that on board when considering a reply to others.

Well done Cobber.

Lanky

[Talesman]

"However, roulette is a game of independent trials where there isn't a connection to the last spin."

That **MIGHT** be true if everything was done mechanically or electronically but that isn't how the wheel operates in most casinos.  It will be soon and we are already starting to see that in poker in a big way.

While spins may not be connected, the ball is connected to the dealer's fingers which are, in-turn, connected to her arm, shoulder, etc. and all of which are connected to her brain.

Tell me mathematically or any other way why that has no bearing on the outcome.

Like several dealers have told me as well as my playing buddies more than once..."I may not be able to make you win but I sure as heck can make you lose."

[Spike]

Tell me mathematically or any other way why that has no bearing on the outcome.>>>

This is why the dealer changes are so important. The next dealer does not take up where the last dealer left off, they usually spin an entirely different game.

[Talesman]

I usually DREAD or APPLAUD dealer change.  For me there is hardly any middle ground.

I learned a long time ago to play what the dealer is spinning.  That's why I bring a pocket notepad with plans glued to the pages that have been throughly tested and concisely written as well as neatly printed and then I try to match a plan to the marquee, assuming it is 100% accurate. 

Once that is done, I then inquire how long before that dealer goes off on break.  If less than 20 minutes, I don't play and will revisit the table a bit later, assuming I haven't found a good one to play.  And because of what I see on marquees at another table after I have started play I have been known to wave to the pit critter and tell him or her I am changing tables.

If you are a craps player, equate all that to qualifying a table.

[JHM]

Good to see everybody thinks different about the game and how to play. As negative as I sound. I'm pretty sure roulette can't be beat. It can, and if you do, you were on a long winning streak.

I mean, comon', how long does the game of roulette exhist? If it would be beatable casino's would have removed it long ago. Before us there were smart people, now there are smart people. There will always be (smart) people trying to find a strategy to beat the game.

It's simple, in the end, the casino always wins (if not from you it's from someone else). If you like it or not.

And ehhhh I still love the game and this forum. And I really hope I'll find a system which provides me minimum los combined with a long winning streak.

Jur

[JHM]

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