Real vs. Live Online, Dealer can aim (how accurate)?

[Talesman]

Be argumentative all you care to.

I typed my words and I stand by them 100%.  Read them.  Take them at face value.  You may not be reading them in the same light I typed them in, but that's because of the perception on your end or perhaps my lack of clarity.

"Sir, you have come on this forum with a bit of an attitude
about how the unwashed masses don't quite measure up. 
I'm giving you a chance to show us what you can do."

I am a curmudgeon. It's official. I have a certificate and everything. Let me quote from: nolinks://nolinks.concentric.net/~marlowe/curdef.shtml so everyone can get a handle on it.

Perhaps curmudgeons have gotten a bad rap in the same way that the messenger is blamed for the message: They have the temerity to comment on the human condition without apology. They not only refuse to applaud mediocrity, they howl it down with morose glee. Their versions of the truth unsettle us, and we hold it against them, even though they soften it with humor.

I do not recall using the term "unwashed masses" or even hinting that but you have.  That says a lot to me and should to others reading this as well.

Oh, and kid, I don't have to prove SQUAT to anyone. I've been in the trenches and I have paid my dues. I've walked the walk.  I don't need to talk the talk because talking usually gets nothing done.  Probably did all that before most folks here were born.

That probably irritated you...right?  Get over it.  I am a curmudgeon...remember? 

I have probably churned more money through casinos than many folks here will ever see, hold or earn in their lifetime.  That alone does not make me any sort of expert.  But it does make me experienced.  I also believe that I can still learn from the great (and not so great) ideas of others and I am eager to do so.

I am also not naive enough to think I could change anyone's mindset, even if I wanted to.  You have yours and I have mine.  I call' em like I see 'em and I tell it like it is.  Everyone - feel free to disregard anything I have to input.  You will not and can not hurt my feelings.  I am way beyond that picayune stage.  Some day most everyone here will be beyond that as well.  It is part of the personal growth and aging process. Too bad most of us almost have to be ancient before that happens.

[TwoCatSam]

Very well, then.......

I am issuing you a public challenge!  You have stated you can tell when a dealer change takes place.  You may not have said it those exact words, but we all know you've said it. 

This kid is asking you to prove it.

Why not?  What have you got to lose?

There are a few million spins out there with those little lines under them.  Let's pull down a few and see how good you are.

You say you don't have anything to prove.  Excuse me, but you do!  You have talked your talk now let's see you walk your walk.

People can come on these forums and blow like hurricane Ike about what they can do, but, boy, just ask them to prove it and what do they always say:  I don't have anything to prove.  Yes, but you do!!

I publicly call your credibility into question.  Here for this forum and whomever reads it to see.

I don't think you can do it!!

Is there one other person reading this who would like to see the man do what he says he can do.  If not, what are we here for? 


Sam

[TwoCatSam]

About 2 years ago I was testing plans against Hamburg actuals. 

It was win, lose, lose, win.  I noticed a pattern.  After finishing I opened the file.  I am thankful  for the "---" that denoted dealer change.

After testing a month's worth I found one dealer who allowed me to win constantly.  (That is an assumption on my part that each time there was dealer change in the file and the number sets that appeared in my favor were all from the same person. Also, it appeared to me that whoever that was usually had a 4-day work week.)  Problem was the dealers generally only did 12-20 spins then take a break. I was almost tempted to fly there and find out who was on the table at points X and X and X during the one month...and wait until that person came one and play with all the $$$ I had.

That's all I have to offer currently about sight-unseen dealers.

From the above:

It was win, lose, lose, win.  I noticed a pattern.  After finishing I opened the file.  I am thankful  for the "---" that denoted dealer change.

Let's not parse words:  In the above you are clearly saying that you noticed a pattern and that the "----" confirmed your suspicions of dealer change.

First, if you were using a permanence, how did you see the numbers without opening the file in the first place? 

Would any one of you explain to me in plain English how this man saw the numbers to know he had a win/lose pattern if he was not looking at the numbers?  Would one of you explain to me how he looked at the numbers and did not see the "---"?  Anyone?  Am I missing something here?



So, Mr. Curmudgeon, you saw a pattern, opened the file for the first time and saw that the "---" confirmed your suspicion.  Right?

Why won't you repeat it?  What have you got to fear?

Sam

[Spike]

>>You have stated you can tell when a dealer change takes place.>>

I don't think he's saying that at all. Like Talesman, I play a very specific method that often depends on the wheel outcome going in a very specific direction. I noticed a long time ago that time after time after time, a new dealer would completely ruin what had been, right up to the dealer change, a very profitable session. So I started to be very leery of dealer changes, and lo and behold, most of the time I was wise to do so. No dealer throws the same game as the last dealer, its naive to think they do. If you're playing a game that depends on general random outcomes, it won't matter to you. If you have a specific game you're playing, it matters very much what the dealer is throwing.

Last time I was in Vegas, on my way out I stopped at the Hard Rock. There was a guy betting big bucks at roulette, he was wagering about $1500 on every spin in 4 different places. On every spin he won something. He would let out a yell and exchange an air high five with the dealer. This went on for about 12 spins and the guy was cleaning up, winning thousands. Then came the dealer change and it was like somebody threw a switch. At the 3rd loss in a row the guy wisely colored up and left the table. Was that a coincidence that he started losing at the dealer change? Don't you believe it..

[TwoCatSam]

Spike

All well and good, but you failed to answer my question in red.

I can hear him now:  "Well here's how I was able to test my system without ever looking at the numbers.  I had my wife call them out to me!"  Oh, yeah, in this lifetime!!

So, how DID he do that test and THEN open the file and see the "---"?

Sam

[Lanky]

Very well, then.......

I am issuing you a public challenge!  You have stated you can tell when a dealer change takes place.  You may not have said it those exact words, but we all know you've said it. 

This kid is asking you to prove it.

Why not?  What have you got to lose?

There are a few million spins out there with those little lines under them.  Let's pull down a few and see how good you are.

You say you don't have anything to prove.  Excuse me, but you do!  You have talked your talk now let's see you walk your walk.

People can come on these forums and blow like hurricane Ike about what they can do, but, boy, just ask them to prove it and what do they always say:  I don't have anything to prove.  Yes, but you do!!

I publicly call your credibility into question.  Here for this forum and whomever reads it to see.

I don't think you can do it!!

Is there one other person reading this who would like to see the man do what he says he can do.  If not, what are we here for? 


Sam

Would any one of you explain to me in plain English how this man saw the numbers to know he had a win/lose pattern if he was not looking at the numbers?  Would one of you explain to me how he looked at the numbers and did not see the "---"?  Anyone?  Am I missing something here?

Sam.

I am 100% behind You here Mate.

I would like to know the Answers as well.

Like You Sam I must be missing something.

Lanky.

[WannaWin]

Hello Gentlemen (I think you are all gentlemen).

I have the utmost respect for you and I feel quite sad the way that this topic is becoming. You are like my mentors, I learn from you every time I read them.

We can always discuss a respectful way. There is never need to say things that might offend nor be taken to bad.

Do not make war of words but make the best battle of ideas, in the polite way.

May I have the request of stepping a moment to say a bit about the very subject of this topic.
   
I have been using the dealers ball movement pattern when I notice that a dealer spins the wheel slow and launches the ball with speed to medium or low, I can attempt to capture his signature.

I never do so with the dealers rotating disc so fast that the numbers are a simple draw or when working with the ball speed that it bounces too much after it hit on the wheel.

In addition there are things that I use and not have an explanation. For example, I know the pattern of the dealer signature is a trend. I do not expect it to be always in the money making location. Many times same dealer makes a bad day today and makes a good day tomorrow. It is the tendency to exploit but never claim to be the certain thing.

My advice is: when dealer makes rotor low and ball launch is medium-low, try to determine the signature pattern.

Do not mix the clockwise and counter-clockwise spins. Use different spreadsheet for each.

Some advice for the dealer signature and very important: do not be the stubborn man. Because dealer signature is another trend you make the watch and you try to capture and expliot it. If not possible today, maybe possible tomorrow.

The important thing is not to lose your money chasing the one that does not appear after a reasonable analysis at this day's session.

Many greetings.
WannaWin

[TwoCatSam]

Below is what I call speaking to the unwashed masses:  I will take the liberty of underlining and bolding the offending statement and we'll go from there:

"to me that's crazy".....

Actually, if you understand physics, it's not all that crazy at all.

Let's cut to the chase here.

I'll skip all the rhetoric about "muscle memory" (look that up) and a whole lot of other subjects that have been written about by serious writers in the gaming industry.

Now here's a bloke who knows about muscle memory and the rest of us don't and must "look that up".  I know a great deal about muscle memory.  I worked in a field where people had to give me their phone numbers from memory.  Many could not do it off the top of their head, but they could walk over to the phone on the desk and punch in their number.  I was a league bowler for years. 

I can pull a big word out of one of a dozen books in my little library and tell someone to look it up.  Does that mean I'm smart or the world is dumb?  Neither.  What it would mean is that I have a condescending attitude to my readers.  I probably have this attitude due to low self-esteem and feel the need to impress people who don't know me and never will.

So, I re-issue my challenge, Mr. Curmudgeon:  Show us what you can do.  We'll all put down our dictionaries long enough to watch.

[JHM]

Great guys, keep the discussion up but please keep it friendly.

One says it can be done, the other say's it can't be. That's this thread for, to discuss.

We are a lot further now, maybe there are dealers who can. But I'm sure, that they will never hit 10 out of 10 (part's of the wheel) and this will only be a few dealers.

[TwoCatSam]

JHM

I disagree--it is no longer up for discussion.  Why discuss something when it can be proven one way or the other? 

I have posted the challenge.

Sam

[AnandMajumdar]

hello talesman,

i have always wondered about this dealer signature business.. im sorry im not that knowledgable about roulette, but basic common sense has told me that it couldnt be true..but always was scared to ask, lest I seem stupid  

i have a request for u my brother.. can I really see u do what u say seems possible ?? it may change my entire view about the game ..and let me clarify that its nowhere close to a challenge..and its coincidental that I am asking for this.. I come in humility wanting to learn about the game..

if possible even for a short run of spins, could u articulate or demonstrate what u strongly believe in ?

dealer signature is one of the most controversial subjects of roulette.. since you are knowledgable pls help out.. I really do want to see this in action..

i do not mean to offend, but I disbelieve, and I WANT that you prove me wrong ..it would open more windows about the game.. and give us more ways to beat it

thanks
anand

[TwoCatSam]

Andy,

The only stupid question is the one you didn't ask.  Non-believing is fine!  Being a skeptic is fine.  Wanting proof is fine.  I have always maintained I'm on the fence in this argument:  I frankly don't know!  If someone (?) does know, well, clue us in, right?

Oh, no smoke and mirrors please.  Saw that in THE WIZARD OF OZ!  Let's see the proof in the pudding!

Waiting............

Sam

[JHM]

JHM

I disagree--it is no longer up for discussion.  Why discuss something when it can be proven one way or the other? 

I have posted the challenge.

Sam

Sam,

Maybe discussion isn't the good word (sorry for my interpretation for not being English). Maybe gathering information is better said. I mean, 95-98%? of soccer players miss 90 out of 100 targeted freekicks. Than you have the 2-3% really skilled which hit 90 out of 100 targets.

I mean, maybe there are skilled dealers. And off course the ball can roll over the wheel or hit a deflector. But I'm just trying to get some information. I do think there are skilled dealers which can hit a certain area's of the wheel, let's say 7-8 out of 10 times.

And your challenge, I hope Talesman will play your challenge. I'm really curious for the outcome.

Jur

[TwoCatSam]

Frankly, I'm done with it.

Thanks for your input.

Sam

[Kingpin]

Hi JHM, and everyone else  

I'm really glad to see that you have started a thread about this topic. I think that it's a very interesting matter.

When i have a little spare time, i'm also working on something to try and see if theres realy something about this DS thing. (You can see my thread: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/full-systems/my-new-sytem-using-dealer-signature-on-dublinbet/)

I have a really strong feeling that there is.

However i think something is essential for this to work:
-The ball must be spun from the last hitting number.

My take on this is that it's not so much about the dealers skills of aiming at a number. I think it's more about Their subconscious way of spinning. My feeling is that after a period of time at the table, they get into a certain rhythm, which then gives rise to a subconscious "signature". I'm not saying that then you can 100% tell where the ball will land, but maybe in 6-7 out of 10 you could. Thats still an advantage, especially if flatbetting.

I don't know, there just has to be something about it  

The problem is that it takes a hell of a lot of time testing this, because you have to sit and record the numbers spun from the certain dealer(s), and an hours recording only give about 50 numbers.
But if we were together gathering the numbers it would be easyer. So with this i would like to appeal to people that when they record a session (personally i'm most interested in DB spins because they spin from last hit number), remember to note who the dealer is, and please share with us [smiley=dankk2.gif]

In the tests i've done, some very exploitative patterns seems to arrise, but thats at max. 200 spins from one dealer, which i guess really can't be used for too much in long term.

Anyway this is my little contribution so far, hope somebody finds it usefull.  

Best Regards
Kingpin

[Kingpin]

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