Ok, so a number(s) is not due but.....

[Mr J]

YES, I posted this on another board already but curious of any different comments? >>> So lets say its a fact that a number(s) is not DUE. Can an EVENT be due? This goes back to my plan of betting on a repeater back to back but I'm asking the question a little different this time around. A number(s) is NOT the same as an event. ((My idea of first waiting 20 spins for no numbers to repeat back to back. Then, start a 100 step progression, ((120 total spins)) As an example, lets say these numbers came up >> 5, 33, 36, 00, 17, 20 << There is NOTHING special about those numbers. Nothing is due, no sleepers, no hot or cold or warm numbers etc. Every spin means a different number bet. After all my babbling (lol)......can an event be "due"? I think the standard answer is probably NO but any thoughts? Ken

[Mr J]

Listen, there are some gambling questions where people dont like answering cause they feel it might be the wrong answer some how? They dont want to be slammed, down the road at some point. Feel free to PM or email me with your opinion on this, I WILL NOT post any answers. Thanks,  Ken

[VLSroulette]

Can an EVENT be due?

After every imbalanced result at the short term, a corrective BALANCE is expected, but... when will it happen? Over the fuzzy "long term" time, but it is due as in being expected by math, otherwise the roulette wheel is labelled defective and biased, and not complying with a fair distribution of outcomes.

[Mr J]

Sometimes I hate using the word DUE. I know this.....a back to back repeat happens alot. I need it once every 120 spins. Will I get quite a few wins? Yes, no question about it but its that ONE time (lol) that wipes everything out. Thats how I roll.    Ken

[VLSroulette]

a back to back repeat happens alot

Dear Kenneth, it happens exactly 1 out of every 37 spins AVERAGE in the long run. There is no workaround for that, sorry.

What we have to understand is what matters to determine how often does or does not an event appear is the numerical coverage.

As easy as that. You have a numerical event involving 1 number, then it happens once out of every 37 spins AVERAGE. No matter if it is a back-to-back number, taking or adding 1 to the numerical value of a number or  counting distances relative to pockets on the wheel. You name it!

Now the AVERAGE part is what most people dont get. "1 in 37" doesn't mean the event will appear over a spawn of 37 spins but rather that in the long run, after all the raw numbers are taken together, it is expected to appear at a raw frequency of 1 time per every 37 spins, regardless of the actual interval of appearance when considering blocks of 37 continuous spins.

People expects this:

°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°X°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°X°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°X

But in reality ir can be:

°°°°°°°°°X°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°x°°°°°°°°x°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°


or

°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°x°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°x°°°°°°°°°°x°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°


OR

°X°X°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°X°


This means a person considering a progression for 108 spins over this 1-number event considering that will be enough for a "1 in 37" expected event, after losing it all may complain, yet show its frequency of actuals, resulting in:

°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°XXX


The event appeared 3 consecutive instances after 108 misses within a tracked sample of 37 x 3 = 111 spins.

As it showed 3 times within that interval, Yes, a perfect 1 to 37 raw count over the raw numbers, perfectly valid, expected outcome!

...but not so perfect for the player who just blew a progression on these. Yet undisputable by math as fair.



Now, the other possibility is to actually have a biased outcome for this particular numerical event, in which case the correct thing to say is: At this particular wheel, at the particular times I play, when considering only this particular gathered numerical data, and after analyzing the raw outcomes I have determined a back to back repeat happens alot when compared to what probability dictates... 1 in 37 and at these particular samples it happens 1 in <= 36 

Victor

[Mr J]

Thanks Vic. In a way, thats good news regarding your post. I might play it on Tuesday.    Ken

[Herb]

Ken,

Waiting for 20 spins isn't going to enable your to exploit a "due event" either.

Really read about Gambler's Fallacy. Take the time to read it and reasearch it.  Read it at least a half dozen times before you go out to the casino.

Best of Luck,

-Herb

[Mr J]

"Waiting for 20 spins isn't going to enable your to exploit a "due event" either." --- Really? What if I waited for 300 spins without a back to back repeat, then started a 100 step progression? I picked 20 cause its a nice round number. Not too many spins, not too few.  Skipping spins (virtual betting) is a HUGE allie in winning at this game.  (my opinion)  Ken

[Herb]

Mr. J,

Waiting 300 spins for a number isn't going to help either.  The odds have not changed.  Just FYI, I've seen over 572 spins without a repeat before.  Watch enough spins and you'll see a number sleep even longer than that. 

You can't step outside of probability just by watching from the sidelines.  Again, I highly recommend that you read about gambler's fallacy.

-Herb

[Mr J]

"Waiting 300 spins for a number isn't going to help either.  I've seen over 572 spins without a repeat before.  Watch enough spins and you'll see a number sleep even longer than that." >>> This is the 4th time on 3 different boards, I'm careful of the wording. EVENT, not a number(s). I'm not talking about a "NUMBER" sleeping. "a number" means, a specific number (like 32). I never mentioned that, an EVENT only. If your advice is the SAME regarding an EVENT, cool and thanks.  Two points..... A) Anyone here if they knew for a FACT that there was not a back to back repeater after 300 spins and did not do SOME betting on that EVENT, is liar, period. Even if it was flat betting for 36 spins.  B) There is NO way you witnessed 572 spins without a back to back repeat. Not to mention, you would of had to of been tracking, in order to even know it was 572.  Ken

[Herb]

Ken,

There's no difference between a number not hitting in 572 spins and not having a repeater in 572 spins.  Both are just as unlikely to hit. 

Oh, and yes I have witnessed it.   

[Mr J]

Witnessed it meaning? You tracked those numbers?  Ken

[Herb]

Yep

[Mr J]

I'll let you get the last word in after this. 572 spins without a back to back repeat? Nope, no way. Ok, hang on. Just last week, I winessed 89 spins of red in a row, no lie, I saw it.  Ken

[Herb]

Good for you.

[Herb]

-