I Need a Betting on Dozens Comparison...a "Baseline" of Sorts

[rjeaton1]

I'm currently working on a system that bets on Dozens.  I got the idea after making the "dozens data tracker" for Mr. Chips.  I can tell you right now, that I'm sure I'm nowhere near what Mr. Chips is cooking up, but nevertheless I need some help.

In this example, I'm calling placing a bet on two dozens at the same time one bet.

I"ve placed my bets 39 different times (which is actually 78 chips as one bet is two chips...one on two different dozens).  Obviously what I'm betting for is for one dozen to not hit and one of the other two dozens to hit.

I've won 32 of 39 bets on the first try.  The other 7 bets were all won on their second try.  One of those 7 losses was to a Zero.  In other words, I haven't lost more than one bet in a row...at all.  That equates to winning 82% of my bets on the first shot and 100% of my bets were won on the second try.

Now, I've got a picture of the BR balance trend below.  Those bets were placed over the course of 217,00 spins or so.

For those of you laughing right now, I know...it seems silly.  But please try to look past that.  I'm not looking for comments on how stupid it is to bet this little...I already know that.  However, this is just one of 26 programmed modules.  If this "module" continues to go well, I'll program the other 26.

Also, just the way it is, I could win one bet a day with $25 chips and be satisfied.  So, again, no comments on what your thoughts are about how often (or...not often actually) it is betting.  

What I am looking for comments on is how frequently/easy is it to win 32 out of 39 bets on the first shot betting the way I am?  Not only that, but looking at the BR balance trend you'll see that the streaks of winning are abnormally (at least I think) long.

Anyway, just looking for a baseline or your thoughts on this...

[Stepydan]

What I am looking for comments on is how frequently/easy is it to win 32 out of 39 bets on the first shot betting the way I am?  Not only that, but looking at the BR balance trend you'll see that the streaks of winning are abnormally (at least I think) long.

Hey Rjeaton1 

I thought Rx could answer your question about frequency of winning at first try. But maybe the mighty Rx cannot do that 
I am not criticizing the software, I just don't know it well enough. Actually I am just a beginner with it.

Now, as for constructive comments :

* You might find really interesting answers in the situational-strategy section here, because what you are talking about is closely related to the origins of the Lw methodology. Indeed, Lw was mainly designed at first about betting on two dozens out of three. Well to be completely accurate, the very beginning was about streets, but it quickly went from streets to dozens, and now to many other types of betting.

* If you will, it should not take that long to ask my buddy excel to get you your frequency answers, provided you tell me how do you decide to bet on any chosen set of two dozens.

Cheers 

Stepydan.

[Lanky]

I"ve placed my bets 39 different times (which is actually 78 chips as one bet is two chips...one on two different dozens).  Obviously what I'm betting for is for one dozen to not hit and one of the other two dozens to hit.

I've won 32 of 39 bets on the first try.  The other 7 bets were all won on their second try.  One of those 7 losses was to a Zero.  In other words, I haven't lost more than one bet in a row...at all.  That equates to winning 82% of my bets on the first shot and 100% of my bets were won on the second try.

Wow RJ that's an astounding Win Rate Mate.
32/39 Won on the 1st try and 100% within two Bets.....Incredible Buddy.

What I am looking for comments on is how frequently/easy is it to win 32 out of 39 bets on the first shot betting the way I am?

I know of No-one that gets that Frequency on a consistent basis betting either the Dozens or the Columns.
Except for Steve Morgan who has a 19/20 Win rate=95%

Once back in April 2007 I hit 24 or 25 Wins out of 29 spins (I think it was 25 ?)
I was playing the LD but the 1st Dozen had fallen asleep so I bet the 2/3 Dozens and when the 1st Dozen came up I bet against it and I had made up My mind I would stop after LL which Luckily for Me did not happen until spins 28 & 29.

The longest Column I have ever seen was about August last year.
The 1st Column Hit 14 Times in a Row then a Zero then 4 more of the 1st Column came.
So it Hit 18 times in 20 spins.

Your Friend.

Lanky.

[viper5]

hello RJ

great resaults man!

can u tell me how u beted???

[Mr Chips]

Really great, that you got the idea from the "Dozen data tracker".

Good Luck with it.
 
Mr Chips

[gizmotron]

Anyway, just looking for a baseline or your thoughts on this...

You have the baseline in 24/37 or 24/38. What you are doing is betting on 24 numbers for each spin. You will find times when your win rate will dip below 65%. Sometimes the bet selection process swings into a trend were it does not work continuously. I use a step back method. As you said, one win at $25 chips for each of the 24 numbers would be satisfactory for a day's outcome. You could wait for good stretches at $1 chips. There will be a time where, while waiting in steps, when you will lose all first moves at the $25 chip level. It will be  a trend of bad first attack moves. It must happen. The winning move is to walk away from that session. Straight down losses happen just like extremely good sessions.

That's my experience. It also serves me well as a situation that I must acknowledge that might happen anytime. I would be fascinated that you have a way to bet right through the straight downturns with $25 chips.

[Tangram]

rj,

Your results over 39 spins gives you a standard deviation of 2.35, which means that there is a probability of less than 5% that you got these results by chance alone. (for more info on standard deviation take a look at Kon-Fu-Sed's probability tutorial in the reference section - page 2.  )

An SD of 3.0+ is what you need to achieve before you can be confident that you have something worthwhile, so more data is needed.

[rjeaton1]

@ Everybody >> Thank you guys so much for the valuable feedback!

This is exactly what I was looking for as I wasn't sure whether it would be worth my time to program the other "modules".

I'll be sharing how it works in the near future, however it will be immediately shunned by many I'm sure due to the nature of how it works (it's based soley on my take of probability theory).  That is the only reason I haven't shared it already as it can be exhausting being constantly "flamed", haha.

So, again, thanks for everybody's input...this is the kind of thing that makes this forum a valuable resource.  Not just the material that's already here, but how so many people are so willing to help...greatly appreciated guys.

[rjeaton1]

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