GOODHAND's reflection on "law of the third"

[VLSroulette]

Law of the third makes nothing but complying with probability, in fact, it is closely related to it, meaning if roulette obeys one it must obey the other likewise.

Let me explain myself:

Law of the third is fulfilled for any random group multiple of three. A third of the numbers will appear once, a third will repeat and a third won't appear.

Fort he sake of simplicity let's explain with three numbers: 1,2 and 3.

We spin this 3-number roulette and any of such numbers is spun, let's say number 1 comes out.

Next spin roulette has the same 3 numbers to choose from (1,2 and 3).

There is 2/3 of probability for "2 or 3" to be spun, this means, numbers not appeared; let's imagine number spun is 2 (For this spin there are two times the probability for the "2 and 3" group over "1").

Third spin. There are 2/3 of probability for those two repeated numbers to appear (1 or 2) versus 1/3 for the one remaining to appear ("3"), this spin the ball lands on any of the two which have been spun (1 or 2) as it has 2/3 probability, and that's it, we have accomplished "Law of the third".

One third has been spun once (number 1), one third has repeated (number 2) and one third hasn't appeared (number 3).

Probability has been fulfilled, it is always more probable and easy for the ball to fall in 2/3 of the options than the remaining 1.

(Goodhand)

[JHM]

Isn't it just 33,3% change to hit for each?

[TwoCatSam]

Jur

If I may......

You have a bag with a red, white and blue ball and you can't see or feel the difference.  You draw white and put it back.  On your next draw, do you have a greater chance of drawing the white a second time or the blue or red?  It's a two-to-one proposition that you will draw blue or red.

This was a game on "The Price is Right" and may still be.  It was called "Three Strikes".  It wasn't exactly the same (for the purists) but mighty close.

Sam

[JHM]

Jur

If I may......

You have a bag with a red, white and blue ball and you can't see or feel the difference.  You draw white and put it back.  On your next draw, do you have a greater chance of drawing the white a second time or the blue or red?  It's a two-to-one proposition that you will draw blue or red.

This was a game on "The Price is Right" and may still be.  It was called "Three Strikes".  It wasn't exactly the same (for the purists) but mighty close.

Sam

Thank you for the clear example Sam. So it means, your best bet opportunity is draw 2?

[TwoCatSam]

Jur

I'm not sure it means anything as far as betting goes.  It just means to me, that if I draw a white ball and put it back, on my next draw the odds are 2 to 1 that I won't draw white again.

Herb calls it the "Suggestion of the Thirds".

Sam

[JHM]

Jur

I'm not sure it means anything as far as betting goes.  It just means to me, that if I draw a white ball and put it back, on my next draw the odds are 2 to 1 that I won't draw white again.

Herb calls it the "Suggestion of the Thirds".

Sam

You know what I hate Sam. Bliss posted that each trail is independent. That would mean, we're all looking for a system or bet that just isn't there. I don't say I agree that each spin is independent. Because when you make a million spins all numbers and colours should come close.

[winkel]

a friend of mine found that it is better to play on the 1/3 than on the 2/3

but it is to complicated for me that I could explain it.

br
winkel

[VLSroulette]

a friend of mine found that it is better to play on the 1/3 than on the 2/3

Hello winkel, my mate; yes, roulette has times where it goes "against all odds", precisely to keep the game fair! (in the long term). Namely compensation.

I have seen in the Lw's. Cycling like this: after a heavy dominance of w's (2/3) then once they stop dominating there is usually a betting opportunity for L's (1/3) to compensate at least in part. I wouldn't be surprised if your friend uses a dynamics like this for his 1 dozen/column play.

As roulette can be an extreme game, it can get its compensating in an extreme fashion too! This is why you see, say, series of 5 times the same dozen and when they come, they may come together in clumps in a short sample... funny thing is they can be compensating past deviations, but shall you enter the game when they appear, they create imbalance to be compensated later... This is how the game goes.

In roulette, any point of the numerical stream is as good as entrypoint as it is as exitpoint.

[VLSroulette]

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