Please define what these characteristics mean. It is impossible to read randomness if these concepts are not understood correctly.
Dominance of a grouping's occurrence or leanings by a percentage rate.
Define "Dominance"
Define "the global effect"
Define "series" for 1 or 2 (singles & doubles)
Define "pattern"
Define "elegant pattern"
Define "sleeping"
Define "grouping" (group)
Define "trend"
It is no wonder that the discussion of randomness is thought to be worthless to many. I'll bet the basic terms are completely misunderstood and most likely impossible to relate to by many.
Define "Dominance"
Define "Pattern"
Define "Sleeping"
Define "Grouping"
Define "Trend"
day
1 Som van freq Kolomlabels
Rijlabels s1 s2 s3 s4
s1 32 18 23 18 91 832 -590 242
s2 20 7 11 9 47 540 -243 297
s3 17 11 15 14 57 459 -360 99
s4 22 12 7 13 54 594 -288 306
total 91 48 56 54 249 944
european wheel
grouping is : 1 sector of 10 // 3 sectors of 9
dominance of s1 = s1
dominance of s2 = s1
dominance of s3 = s1
dominance of s4 = s1
Som van freq Kolomlabels
Rijlabels s1 s2 s3 s4 Eindtotaal
s1 7 10 14 7 38
s2 10 10 16 11 47
s3 14 14 10 18 56
s4 8 13 15 13 49
total 39 47 55 49 190
so what was the highest dominance in day -1 (s1=s1) is now the lowest..
Define "the global effect">>
I have seen this term, what does it mean? What is global effect?
The global effect is one of those terms that Gizmotron created yet expects people to know. It won't help you read short term randomness because short term randomness is not readable, and whatever you think you see and whatever you label it (trend, pattern, dominance, blah blah blah) is only something that have already happened (and so is now useless since results are not connected otherwise it wouldn't be called randomness) and, like it or not it, happened by chance, not as a result of some secret rule that randomness obeys.
The (real) math of the game is pretty straightforward. Just look at the probability of your bet and compare that to its payout and you'll know what to expect in the long run.
Quote from: cheese on March 31, 2010, 07:14:05 AM
Define "the global effect">>
I have seen this term, what does it mean? What is global effect?
So a few players are curious? The term "Global" comes from a type of variable in computer programming where a declared variable can contain information that can be recognized by other computer code found in controls other than the one that created it. In effect it has a wide spread effect over an entire computer application. It's a kind of over all memory container.
So how does this relate to trends? Sometimes individual short term patterns like 5 blacks or 6 reds come in swarms of them. So I could trade "global effect" for "swarms." An example would be a trend of a dominant swarm. Sometimes you see 5-black, 5-red, 4-black, 7-red, 6-black, etc... What you are seeing is that small groups are happening instead of a lot of singles interspersed by few small streaks. (series of one or two)
Quote from: Noble Savage on March 31, 2010, 08:34:31 AM
... and, like it or not it, happened by chance, not as a result of some secret rule that randomness obeys.
Only a fool thinks that randomness follows a set of secret rules. To attempt to imply for me, for my sake, that I mean that is nothing more than a childish attempt to erect a straw-man argument. I know it's you Herb, snowman, ad hoc alias...
Define "Dominance"
When any trend tends to dominate any single group. If you have thirty spins where 24 of them are black then you have a dominance of black. When you see a streak of series of ones, RbRbRbRb, oEoEoEoE, or even wLwLwLwL you have a dominance of a series of ones. You can have a ones sided dominance of patterns too. Every time it goes back to black it hits a single only, it only hits one time. But when it goes to red it always hits at least twice. Now this can be a global effect, a swarm too. I mean it can go on for a full hour doing that.
Define "series" for 1 or 2 (singles & doubles)
If you look at the odds only you will see that you will see twice as many singles as you will see doubles.
This is a streak of singles: rBrBrBrB
This is a streak of doubles: rrBBrrBBrrBBrrBB
Some times patterns are in streaks of series. Some times trends involve dominances of series.
Define "pattern"
Patterns are easy. Can you see a pattern in this stream of results? rBBrBBrBBrBB...
How about this pattern: rBrBBrBrBBBrBrBBr
Define "sleeping"
When you play the dozens you have three of them to place bets at on the table layout.
You can have a time when one of the three dozens tend to not hit for a while. I call it sleeping. It originally came up over a discussion on zeros not occurring for stretches that were far more than the statistical average. So sleeping is when a group stops hitting for a long stretch. You could say that the coldest six numbers are tending to be sleeping.
Define "elegant pattern"
An elegant pattern is any time that a pattern, trend, or dominance goes into a state of perfection. A good one lasts from 20 to 40 spins. A good sleeping dozen can go on for 60 spins in an elegant pattern scenario.
I just had a good one two weeks ago. I broke it down into 10 groups:
(1,11,21,31) (2,12,22,32) (3,13,23,33)... (9,19,29) (0,00,10,20,30)
For a full hour the 1's, 3's, 6's, and 0's where the only numbers to hit.
So for a full hour 17 numbers (American Wheel) were the grouping that was working to form a perfect elegant pattern. I won every spin for a full hour. In fact the dealer got upset that I cashed out on the first loss, and mentioned it.
1other
2angel
3q3
4angel
5other
6angel
7zero
8q3
9other
10q3
11other
12q3
13angel
14q3
15other
16q3
17angel
18q3
19other
20angel
21angel
elegant pattern. just after 20 th spin we have a follow-up
Everyone should be able to see the basic randomness characteristics. However, all these trends, streaks, dominances etc. are always unique and can not be recognized (by the common people). In essence, all of the so called 'betting systems' are the same. They attempt to predict the way randomness unfolds in short term based on the basic randomness characteristics, no? The fact that a system to overcome the negative expectation is yet to come is a clear evidence that nobody has ever done it right. Not even by accident.
In my opinion, to learn to 'read' random first of all we should look at it from a different angle. Here's a quote from Gizmotron that matches my views on this: "I'm constantly testing the scenarios in my mind, like a chess player looking at several options by imagining several moves ahead. I'm always searching for what is working best." I'm still not sure about the actual application of the idea though. Most likely a lost cause.
I've added effectiveness to trend states where they tend to act the same. A trend continues, it ends on the very next spin, and it becomes part of a pattern or pattern of trends. Effectiveness does real good, does real bad, or it becomes chaotic with no definite domination of any kind. What is currently happening has nothing to do with what it has done in the past. You might have excellent streaks that all end when you begin to bet them. That means the streaks are good but the effectiveness is bad. You've got to look at the whole picture. The goal is to use anything that is currently effective.
Define "educated guessing"
Quote from: Gizmotron Educated guessing is about making an informed best guess based on experience and intuition.
How often and to what extent you use your intuition to make educated guesses? Define "experience" please. In my opinion, in the game of roulette "experience" equals probability and statistics. That leaves me with just intuition to make my guesses 'educated'. Is intuition a skill and can it be developed? Researchers have shown that women have more accurate intuition than men do. I'm wondering why I haven't heard of a single woman who's gotten rich from gambling. Maybe the answer is behind that mystery of staying low profile that I'm not able to understand. Anyway, don't get me wrong, I don't want to engage in pointless arguments... I'm trying to get serious answers.
QuoteIn my opinion, in the game of roulette "experience" equals probability and statistics.
Absolutely. What else could it be?
Intuition is one of those fuzzy new age notions which means you just "know" things without any justification. It's the apparent ability to acquire knowledge without inference or the use of reason.
If you can pick winners at a better rate than chance suggests, and you can't justify or explain how you do it, then that's more precognition than intuition. But there's no evidence that precognition exists either.
Quote from: mistarlupo on May 04, 2010, 08:49:11 AM
Define "experience" please. In my opinion, in the game of roulette "experience" equals probability and statistics.
... I'm trying to get serious answers.
Experience for me has nothing to do with probability and statistics. It has everything to do with guessing effectiveness. It is acquired by doing it so much that it gives you knowledge about how it works. That knowledge has always been a prerequisite for membership in the club. It is no wonder you guys are completely blinded. You are trying to see an endless stream of probability stats as a relationship between you and success. I went through that stage for ten years. When you get worn out on systems, progressions, money management techniques and probably ballistics advantages then perhaps you might begin to open your eyes.
Quote from: Bayes on May 04, 2010, 09:28:48 AM
Absolutely. What else could it be?
Intuition is one of those fuzzy new age notions which means you just "know" things without any justification. It's the apparent ability to acquire knowledge without inference or the use of reason.
If you can pick winners at a better rate than chance suggests, and you can't justify or explain how you do it, then that's more precognition than intuition. But there's no evidence that precognition exists either.
My intuition tells me you are searching in the dark for an explanation. By your own reasoning you admit that you have a misconception of what I mean by experience. You guys asked, I told you. Funny how that works.
P.S. "Definition of intuition (noun) form: intuitions an impression that something might be the case; suspicion."
What time zone are you in? You spend almost the whole day in the forum.
What are you doing here? go make millions. :sarcastic:
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 04, 2010, 11:39:01 AM
What time zone are you in? You spend almost the whole day in the forum.
What are you doing here? go make millions. :sarcastic:
I'll tell you why. I only go twice per week. My goal is to take out 100 units per visit. This effort takes mental energy. It's easy to make concentration mistakes based on the effort it takes to win. I do very good by waiting at least two days between visits. Three days is even better. It actually helps me to get past sessions off my mind by reading posts here. Reading political forums doesn't do much at all. You can't persuade anyone with your informed opinion at forums like that. Forums are a massive waste of time if your goal is to change other's thinking. I was up late last night and early this morning. So were you I think. What's your excuse?
I'm in a different time zone. It's 4 PM here.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 04, 2010, 11:51:43 AM
Reading political forums doesn't do much at all. You can't persuade anyone with your informed opinion at forums like that. Forums are a massive waste of time if your goal is to change other's thinking.
Agreed.
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 04, 2010, 12:15:22 PM
I'm in a different time zone. It's 4 PM here.
Greenwich mean time, Great Britain?
It's GMT - 8 here.
QuoteMy intuition tells me you are searching in the dark for an explanation. By your own reasoning you admit that you have a misconception of what I mean by experience.
Your intuition is wrong. That's the thing about intuition, it's not reliable. Someone could play every day for 30 years and still not have a clue. On the other hand, investing some effort in learning basic probability and some more in learning how to write computer programs will pay dividends.
Work smart, not hard.
Quote from: Bayes on May 04, 2010, 12:36:26 PM
Your intuition is wrong. That's the thing about intuition, it's not reliable. Someone could play every day for 30 years and still not have a clue. On the other hand, investing some effort in learning basic probability and some more in learning how to write computer programs will pay dividends.
Work smart, not hard.
I write programs just fine. That only allows me to ponder probability and real world testing. Intuition is worthless without proper experience. You can play for 30 years and not get the proper experience.
The problem with intuition is that you pay more attention to the hunches you get right than those you get wrong. Give me solid research and cold, hard numbers every time. It's so easy to be fooled by randomness.
Quote from: Bayes on May 04, 2010, 01:16:56 PM
The problem with intuition is that you pay more attention to the hunches you get right than those you get wrong. Give me solid research and cold, hard numbers every time. It's so easy to be fooled by randomness.
That's the first time you've been mostly correct. The point is to have a real grasp of real results. I've mentioned it in passing as "Effectiveness." Perhaps you've noticed some of that? Having a real experience with data is far better than having lame excuses for assumptions and wrong expectations. It's easy to be fooled by assumptions and wrong expectations too. Personally, I would not count on those inadequate tools.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 04, 2010, 11:51:43 AM
My goal is to take out 100 units per visit. This effort takes mental energy. It's easy to make concentration mistakes based on the effort it takes to win.
That is because you are not allowed to use any sort of an electronic device to help you in the process of reading random, right? So your method does not work equally well for any kind of random generated set of values (PRNG's, TRNG's, online 'live' casinos etc). You must get much better results in B&M casinos for some reason... Why's that?
QuoteMy goal is to take out 100 units per visit. This effort takes mental energy. It's easy to make concentration mistakes based on the effort it takes to win.
Quote from: mistarlupo on May 04, 2010, 07:34:49 PM
That is because you are not allowed to use any sort of an electronic device to help you in the process of reading random, right? So your method does not work equally well for any kind of random generated set of values (PRNG's, TRNG's, online 'live' casinos etc). You must get much better results in B&M casinos for some reason... Why's that?
I'm sorry but that is an incorrect assumption. I concentrated yesterday on forms and groupings that were dynamically unique. I watched as numbers with ending digits made sequences that created lineal patterns. 6,5,4 lined up twice. 1,0,9 lined up once. 1,2,3 happened as 1, 2, 33. I not only reached my goal I made 160 units. I only played about 60 spins. In yesterday's first session I went down more than 100 units before grinding my way back to even. Then I went and had dinner. After I came back it took 14 spins to win the 160 units.
So here are the actual spins: 00,0,1,20,22,26, 15,34,19,00,3,28,11,5,8, 6,25,14,31,21,3,9,16, 28,35,16,30,22,9,25, 35,20,10,00,1,30,9,4, 23,33,18,35,25,14,15,35, // session two: 11,2,5,11,10,6, 1,2,33,22,5,5,
I went with guesses while it was working. During all that I used two dozens to grind my way back. I see no difference between my correctly operating RNG on my computer at home and these real spins. Anyone that can see some strange difference has a magical thinking dependency. Magical thinking is a common error of new gamblers. An unfounded superstition must lead to erroneous conclusions.
14 spins to see enough trends, patterns, global effects etc. and adjust them to your effectiveness... and win 160u?! Amazing.
Quote from: mistarlupo on May 05, 2010, 04:50:38 PM
14 spins to see enough trends, patterns, global effects etc. and adjust them to your effectiveness... and win 160u?! Amazing.
The global effect was a carry over yesterday.
So just for the heck of it I went back today. At first it was difficult going and then it swung into a very good patch. On one table 8's & 5's were streaking so I hammered them. I sat for 85 spins, bet every spin, and left the casino today, 200 units ahead. I had a general idea of things working and also being very short lived. Like one good attack and then lose.
I remember that guy back on GG who used an approach which sounds conceptually similar to SOME of your techniques. As far as I know, he is playing baccarat which provides him with just one data stream while you seem to take advantage of the wide variety of betting options available in roulette. The reason I tell you this is because of the 'mild progression' this guy used to increase his winnings due to his low variance... Winning 160 units in 14 spins probably requires some way to determine the optimal size of your bets for the betting opportunities currently more 'effective' than others. Isn't it again some sort of progression?
P.S.
The fella I've mentioned above is gr8player. I found one of his posts here:
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/arte's-studio/a-christmas-gift-a-bit-late-but-still-a-gift/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/arte's-studio/a-christmas-gift-a-bit-late-but-still-a-gift/)
Each time we login to an RNG game, do we get a new set of random numbers, or do we get a continuation of the last set? do you think it would make any difference anyway?
Quote from: mistarlupo on May 06, 2010, 10:25:50 AM
... Winning 160 units in 14 spins probably requires some way to determine the optimal size of your bets for the betting opportunities currently more 'effective' than others. Isn't it again some sort of progression?
P.S.
The fella I've mentioned above is gr8player.
I agree with
gr8player almost completely. We arrived at our solutions differently and being different people we relate to the data stream a little different. Add to that that I do play roulette for the multiple data streams.
I didn't use a progression. I attack the most likely scenario while building up the random region I believe was to hit next. My bets ranged from 30 to 50 units average value per spin with a few at 80, that's total combined bets. I covered approximately 50% of the numbers. When in doubt, I bet two dozens at $5 minimum each. Here is an interesting fact for the VB zoners. There are many more connected regions for bet solutions than the single lineal configuration of connected slots on a wheel.
Quote from: superman on May 06, 2010, 10:42:33 AM
Each time we login to an RNG game, do we get a new set of random numbers, or do we get a continuation of the last set? do you think it would make any difference anyway?
As far as it being a continuation I think it continues until a new random seed is inserted. It only makes a difference to those attacking the RNG in order to cheat it.
The way a modern computer makes random numbers is by selecting an original random seed at start up of the application running it. With a CGI on a server the application appears to always be on. Here was the problem for some casinos. After 500,000 selections of random outcomes the sequence began to repeat itself. Attackers figured this out and ran a recognition program in order to find the proper random seed that generated that particular sequence. They then hammered the casinos with the exact sequence and won huge amounts. BTW, this was done against slot machines. So now they have added the randomized random seed layer so that a known or predictable sequence can't be detected.
You should know that anyone can create an RNG game that cheats you. Getting a real simulated random number is not the problem. Having an algorithm that analyzes the bets and selects a few winners for the house, a few losers for the big players, could be done in a ten thousandth of a second without you ever knowing it. It could be triggered by you winning more than the house wanting you to have. It could even be sequenced by knowing your playing style and your betting history from several visits.
this sort of thread is a great read...so wont babble on with my little wins.
but ill still be following the thread if i dnt reply.
:-X
mattjono