If Progressions Don't Beat the House Edge, What Good Are They?

[Bayes]

In trading, the only reason the price might occasionally respect Fib ratios is because many traders base their entries/stops on them.

Yep, an example of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[BlackPearl]

Wise Proverb said:

"When the disciple is ready, the Master appears"


In Roulette Forums the proverb sounds :

"When the disciple is ready, a hundred masters are appearing"


I would like This One more:

"When the disciple is ready, the masters should disappear"


Btw, there is a life beside roulette:

Donovan - There is an ocean

Listen carefully

ROLF 

[Mr J]

Wise Proverb said:

"When the disciple is ready, the Master appears" >>>  Nooo, it couldn't be? Again?

[Mr J]

I'll tell ya the thing that bothers me a LITTLE (I dont lose sleep over it). Because Bob Smith can NOT win, has no balls and has a small BR......somehow that means no one else is allowed to win (or be happy). If Bob can't win, God dangit, no one else can either. lol Its a bit funny but more of a COMPLIMENT to me, I'll take it.  Ken

[Spike!]

There is no such thing as "bet selection" in a true-random game, it's all in your head.>>>

You know why I just LOVE it when people who think they know what they're doing say this? Because its what the casino believes also, hook, line, and sinker.

Never wise up a chump. He loves clinging to his opinions like a life raft, why take that away from him.. 

[gizmotron]

There is no such thing as "bet selection" in a true-random game, it's all in your head.

If what is in your head is organized to recognize figure formations, clusters, bunches, or significant stretches of anything consistent then you can use that to bet on it to continue or for it to end. In essence you are attaching a meaningless reason for a bet selection in order to create a basis of selection. There is nothing important about it. It doesn't have to be real. It's possible to recognize a made up state. It's just one way to make up a bet selection. The only way it can exist is if it exists in your head. Now for the funny part. For some unknown reason it can't exist in the head of the  normal math oriented player. Why is that? That sounds like it's all in the head too.

[Spike!]

>Now for the funny part. For some unknown reason it can't exist in the head of the  normal math oriented player>>

I think Newton covered that in one of his laws of thermodynamics. Something about he math guys head exploding, very messy..

[Spike!]

>>There is no such thing as "bet selection" in a true-random game, it's all in your head. As a result, variance cannot be reduced in a true-random game.>>

Please don't post your opinion like its an accepted law or something. Learn to read and anticipate the random and you most certainly can reduce the effects of variance.

[Steve]

I havent read this thread but will comment based on the title. Progression DOES have a place, but it does NOT change your edge. Progression is best used if you are certain you are beating the house edge, legitimately. Then you can leave the casino in less time with your goal profit.

[Mr J]

Here is a great hypothetical I thought of. Lets say I have played MANY times, always learning. I notice the 'bell curve' quite often (I did not say it happens everytime). I get up (net) around $400-$600, then slowly lose that all back and leave the casino minus $700 from my own pocket. Now, take that experienced guy compared to Bob Smith, the rookie roulette player, fresh on the scene.

Yes, maybe he has 'READ' all about this but questions it a little, perhaps Bob does not believe it. He ignores the lessons from more veteran players etc. Would someone say this is NOT a good example of veteran vs. a rookie? True, it has nothing to do with where the ball will land but none the less, EXPERIENCE is a huge factor in this game.  Ken

[Spike!]

EXPERIENCE is a huge factor in this game.  Ken>>

Experience in the casino AND experience practicing at home. If you practice correctly, you'll play just like you do in the casino, without all the distractions. You'll see what it takes t win and how to avoid losses. Or you won't. But at least you're treating it like a business and not like an excited kid who just discovered the Martingale.

[Mr J]

@Spike >> I agree but some others here will say......what you and I just posted COMPARED to Bob the rookie, "very little difference and it does not mean much". I'm not picking on Number Six but a 15 year roulette player and a guy playing for only a month.....no difference in profit outcome? lol Whatever.  Ken

[Spike!]

a 15 year roulette player and a guy playing for only a month..>>>

Technically, there should be no difference in the outcome of their play whatsoever. The MathBoyz constantly drill it into our heads that there can NEVER be an effective bet selection in roulette better than random choice. Independent outcomes, don't ya know. But there isn't a math guy on this forum who doesn't know the 15 year roulette veteren will almost always do better than the rookie. They will just never admit it.

[Bayes]

But there isn't a math guy on this forum who doesn't know the 15 year roulette veteren will almost always do better than the rookie. They will just never admit it.

Of course experience will make you a better player, as long as you're paying attention and don't have a gambling problem.
Sticking strictly with non-AP players, what does it mean to be a "better" player? It means knowing the foolishness of suicidal staking plans (which can be very seductive when you first learn about them), knowing that nothing is "due" and playing as though it is isn't a good idea. It  means knowing the odds of what you're playing and the likelihood and length of losing and winning runs. In other words, anything gained by "experience" could be learned from a good book on statistics and probability, in less time and with less stress. As Herb points out, why reinvent the wheel when you can learn from others who have travelled the same path?

[Spike!]

Of course experience will make you a better player>>>

But according to the math, thats impossible. The math says the game is set in stone, no way to improve it. Bet selection is impossible, there's no better bet than random choice, thats what the math says. Right?

[Spike!]

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