Alembert progression to surf dispersion of hits

[Arteinvivo]

If we bet on Red for 247 spins then our expectation is to get 120 hits, to break even we would need 124 hits.

I have downloaded a complete day from Wiesbaden table 2 January 30, 2008. In all we have 247 spins where we got 114 Red, almost 1 standard deviation ( below expectation and 133 Black including the numerous pesky Zeros.

Here is a simple mechanical way using a simple Alembert progression to surf dispersion and ride concentration of hits. In this demo, the player bets on Red every spins. To give you an idea, using the normal Alembert the player would have lost -85, highest bet 24. Here with this scheme the highest bet is 7 and the profit is +23. Look how good is this simple idea by surfing the dispersion at the beginning of the game.



Now, imagine if i had stopped on a winning bet instead of a losing run of 2 spins ?

[MattyMattz]

Very impressive idea Arte, Thanks!

Matt

[Arteinvivo]

Thanks, in fact VLS inspired me to make this one. This is exactly the reaction i had when i first tested this idea "impressive idea", i did not know it would perform as well. Now, i just need to build a sim in order to test it more deeply and see where it will choke. But the nice thing about it is that it can be completely mechanical while still mimicing what we would probably do if we were to make concious decisions. Anyway, i like to make my system as mechanical as possible as i like to compare the performance of different versions using the usual standard deviation yardstick.

[Arteinvivo]

In my final version, i have eliminated the skip feature as it does not provide any significant benefits as my tests revealed. There are many possibilities with the system, i like thinking about it as a basic framework, i.e., in my original idea as published here in the first comment, the player bets for real when the virtual bet hit at the lowest bet amount of 1 unit :

Here when the fake bet hit with a wager amount of 1 unit, the real player kick in on the next spin.


But nothing prevents us to change the signal on the fake side. In the original scheme a signal is sent to the real player to bet on the next decision when the bet amount is 1 and a hit is accomplished. But what about if instead of using a bet amount of 1 we would use a winning bet amount of 3 as a signal to tell the real player it's time to play ?



Let's see what we could achieve using this new signal within the basic framework as described in the first comment of theis thread :

Wiesbaden table 2 - February 1, 2008
(Each time +1 is achieved a new game is started)



This is how i tested my 10000 spins from Hamburg.

[dennisbelle]

Arte,
  So on your fake bets you are using 1,2,3 now instead of 1,2 and if your bet selection hits on the 3 then you place a real bet on the next outcome, is that correct?  If not could you post a sample play? [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

[Arteinvivo]

Exactly, here is a more elaborate sequence (I mean, one with more bets placed).

I forgot to mention in my prior post that the fake or virtual Alembert goes up to 5 but the real bet is placed when step 3 has won on the fake side.

The player is betting black in this sequence...

[Arteinvivo]

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