If Progressions Don't Beat the House Edge, What Good Are They?

[Mr J]

Thats like me asking members on this board......you have to be NEW at roulette (of course I have to believe you). I would lower my BR to something that most could afford, $1,000(?) So if me and BOB went to the casino for 10 visits and sat across from each other (2 different tables), Bob and I should finish around the same in terms of NET gain or loss? Maybe 10 visits is too few but I think I made my point. Even YOU Number Six, would/should do better than Bob, the rookie roulette player. One visit? No, over quite a few visits.  Ken

[Number Six]

I think I made my point.

What is the point again? I'm serious.

[Spike!]

So if me and BOB went to the casino for 10 visits and sat across from each other (2 different tables), Bob and I should finish around the same>>>

Better yet, imagine Bob went with you every time you've gone since you started playing the way you play now. He has the same BR, except he bets completely randomly on every visit. Where do you think Bob would be compared to you today? The math says after so many visits you should be pretty equal. What do you say, Ken?

[Mr J]

"except he bets completely randomly on every visit. Where do you think Bob would be compared to you today?" >>>  I say he would not be able to continue playing, unless his BR never runs out, constant visits to the bank.  Lets say Bob and I started out with the same BR...we'll make it high, 10K. Bob, the rookie player would run out of cash long before me and most likely Number Six as well. There's no real shame, Bob is the LESS experienced player, thats how it is. Ken

[Spike!]

What is the point again?>>>

The point is the guy playing randomly in Ken's example would fall far behind what Ken's doing. I see people in the casino all the time betting randomly on R/B and they never come out ahead. They have no idea where to bet, so they seldom are ahead and are always chasing their losses

>>Lets say Bob and I started out with the same BR...we'll make it high, 10K.>>>

Lets say he could always go to the ATM. He would be so far in debt today that his wife would have left him and his house would have 2 mortgages on it. This is a fact. Random bet selection sucks and you can't win using it.

[Number Six]

"except he bets completely randomly on every visit. Where do you think Bob would be compared to you today?" >>>  I say he would not be able to continue playing, unless his BR never runs out, constant visits to the bank.  Lets say Bob and I started out with the same BR...we'll make it high, 10K. Bob, the rookie player would run out of cash long before me and most likely Number Six as well. There's no real shame, Bob is the LESS experienced player, thats how it is. Ken

So through your experience you have developed an intimate knowledge of randomness, much the same as the "randomness readers"? This is not impossible. Presumably you would win more than Bob - in fact, you would continue to win exponentially, while Bob was losing his shirt and his trousers - because your experience helps you to predict the effectivness of a progression over the next, say, 50 or 60 spins? This doesn't seem feasible, unless you're psychic. The way YOU play, I'm struggling to see how experience plays any part whatsoever.

[Mr J]

I played yesterday and today. Today, there was a lady on my left, her buy in was $600, $5 chips. Each spin she bet around 10 numbers, ANY 10 numbers. A few numbers had a couple chips and a few numbers had like 7 chips. Spin after spin after spin. Once that $600 was GONE, into the purse, she had some black. From what, I dont know? Cashed in the black, around $500...lost that in around 20 minutes.

Into the purse multiple times for cash. After 3 hours she was down around 4K, no lie. All her betting based on NOTHING! Coincidence? I say no. I am not saying you will win everyday just because you have a plan, it does not work like that. I think we ALL would agree.  Ken

[Mr J]

"Presumably you would win more than Bob" >>> I dont follow? You are agreeing with me or not so sure?  Ken

[Spike!]

This doesn't seem feasible, unless you're psychic. >>>

I'm telling you, its experience. You're anticipation and guessing skills really do improve the more you use them. You get a feel for the game that can't be expressed or taught. If I were to tell you exactly what went into a decision for the next bet, every one of my reasons would violate some form of Gamblers Fallacy.

[Mr J]

Yep Spike, you explain it better than me. I won't argue with the guy. He doesn't agree, no biggie. Ken

[Number Six]

This doesn't seem feasible, unless you're psychic. >>>

I'm telling you, its experience. You're anticipation and guessing skills really do improve the more you use them. You get a feel for the game that can't be expressed or taught. If I were to tell you exactly what went into a decision for the next bet, every one of my reasons would violate some form of Gamblers Fallacy.

It's not that I don't agree. It depends entirely on what you're doing. If you're making back to back decisions on every spin, that is different from just applying a large progression system. Mr J says he will win more than Bob because he has more experience. Does that mean he'll simply be able to design a better system, or be able to make "better" decisions while actually playing? Saying you can predict better than the expectancy from spin to spin is one thing, but saying experience will help you to estimate the outcome of a long progression is nonsense. 

[Number Six]

Yep Spike, you explain it better than me. I won't argue with the guy. He doesn't agree, no biggie. Ken

Mr J, you can read randomness too?

[Spike!]

Does that mean he'll simply be able to design a better system>>

Yes, thats what it means. Once the progression starts, you're locked in till it ends.

>>but saying experience will help you to estimate the outcome of a long progression is nonsense.>>

Not at all. If it were nonsense, he would have been in Bob's shoes long ago. He's been doing this week in and week out for years now, at last 4-5 years.

[Mr J]

"Mr J, you can read randomness too?" >>> You are TERRIBLE at dragging me in. lol I can tell you lose alot. How? You looking for an arguement is your substitute for winning. Granted, it puts nothing in your wallet but *THIS*, is your WAY of winning. Sad but have fun with it bro. BTW, your method again is what?  Ken

[BlackPearl]

Dear Friends,

the Roulette ball is producing "natural chaotic" random numbers.
You can find such numbers in the whole oeco system, everywhere in the universe...
So only ONE known Progression number line can cope with the Roulette phenomenon:

The FIBONACCI Line ( The Golden Cut )

Why this?
Because it is a natural based proportioned mathematical number line
You find that gogiven proportions EVERYWHERE in the plant and animal kingdom... and:

Mother Nature is always right!!!
or, in other words:  GOD is the greatest and the perfect mathemathician...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

IF we use the Fibonacci in a right and wise way, not greedy,
know when to stop gaming and not perverting it too much, then...

It can serve us a a wonderful tool to beat Roulette in the long run
(not in every sesion of course).


Have a nice and happy sunday all !!!

Sincerely,
ROLF 

[BlackPearl]

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