Randomness and outcomes. Math people please help!

[TwoCatSam]

Esoito

He is saying the coin is flipped 20,000 times.  For it to be tHtHtH..etc..for 20,000 flips would defy all logic and probability.

Perhaps the other book will explain it more completely.

Sam

[hoper35]

Doesn't make sense to me.

Player A steps up to a table and sees - R B R.
Player B sits down at the same table one spin later and sees - B R B.

The table can't make the supposition true for both A and B over the next xxx spins.

[esoito]

So it all depends on the point at which each person begins their observation...?

I mean, we can't all start at exactly the same place in any spin sequence!

[Jakkalsdraai]

The first thing I thought was how long do we have to track the event to know if a side is pulling ahead?

Let's say we take 100 spins. So let's for argument sake say that after 100 spins, reds are 65 and blacks are 35. How do we know that after 200 spins black won't be 120 and reds 80? How do we know that those first 100 spins was actual part of a red's lead? Maybe just a bad streak in the black's lead (if that made any sense.

Think is I guess we have to be there from spin 1. How many do we track though to know which will be dominant?

Also if we stop at the end of the day and the wheel is shut down till tomorrow, do we start a new session or go on? Then let's say we start every day with new session. What happenes if let's say the dealer takes 5 minutes to sort out everyones chips and to respin. Does that affect the outcome? Or is this really only true for no interruptions and continues coin flipping? Alot of questions ... I guess alot of testing then!

Interesting though Sam.

Cheers
Jakk

[TwoCatSam]

Jakk

I have the feeling the book from which Molodinow took the idea will have much more detail in it.  Let's just flip coins.  I would take a minimum of two flips and a maximum of three for h or t to become the leader.  HH  HtH.......either way heads is dominant.  In the first, HH, heads is 100% greater than tails.  In the second, HtH, heads is 66% greater.

I am reading it this way:  If you flip a fair coin and you get two heads, HH, then the chances are 88 to 1 that heads will remain in the lead for the entire 20,000 flips.  Why 20,000?  Why not three or four?  It would be HHH, in which case you would have a winner.  Or HHtH in which case you would have a winner.

I read him as saying if you have HH, there is an 88 to 1 chance you will get HHH.  If you have HtH, there is an 88 to 1 chance you will get HtHH or HtHtH.

So instead of a 50% chance of hitting Heads, you have an 88 to 1 chance of hitting Heads.

Makes no sense to me.  I should maybe stop reading books!!

Sam

[MAX]

Hi

My thought would be that in the first few spins one side of the coin could lead,the next 100 the other and the next 1000 flips the next. The patterns could be short ,meduim or long at the end of the day it is al random. In 2009 heads could be dominant next year tails could be.

To use this in our advantige as we all know is to use triggers,strategies.......but  beware of randomness.


Regards
MAX

[Tangram]

This phenomenon is well explained in another book, which is a good practical book on probability (with some math, but mainly just arithmetic) -

nolinks://nolinks.amazon.com/Taking-Chances-Probability-John-Haigh/dp/0198526636/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1236365969&sr=1-1

There's even a formula which tells you how many "changes of lead" there will be in X number of spins.

The trouble is, roulette isn't really a game of probability, so it's hard to see how this kind of information can help. After all, there are any number of stats you can come up with but do they actually give you any help in predicting the next number? I think you need physics for that.

IMO if you can take anything from this particular info, it should be that it's better to bet with the wheel rather than against it. In other words, don't bank on a change of direction, instead "go with the flow".

[TwoCatSam]

Tangram

Thanks for that.

Sam

[Spike]

Its the law of large numbers and isn't exploitable in the short term. You can do the same thing on Roulette Xtreme. Do 100,000 spins and you'll see that black or red takes an early lead and usually maintains the lead. So what, its useless info in the short term. If red is in the lead for a million spins, that doesn't mean there won't be lots of long black streaks.

[TwoCatSam]

Spike

I merely find it a curiosity.  Like the birthday paradox or whatever you call it. 

You're right.  It's not exploitable or it would be common knowledge. 

I'm the kid who would rather take apart a clock to see why it ticked than play baseball. 

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

Tangram

I found the book used and bought it.  What's twelve bucks anyway?  I find this phenomenon fascinating even if it leads nowhere.

Sam

[Tangram]

I'm sure you won't regret it Sam, but just be prepared for some head-scratching moments! Like I said, the math in the book isn't heavy, but you have to be thinking clearly to understand some of the concepts.

[Tangram]

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