E.C testing

[MATTJONO]

Thanks SIX

I have been testing with positve progression 150spins. I know the session would of been around the even mark if I was flatbetting but I used a positve progression and got to -16 at one point and +19 at another point, anyway I carried on till the end of the 150spins that I cut and pasted before I tested on them and ended +10.

SIX have you noticed that we know nothing is 100% in roulette but with this play we keep our bankroll very safe and every session I have played I have always had a point where I could of walked with a nice profit like +10units seems a great reasonable target.

regards,
mattjono

[Number Six]

I HAVE noticed that the drawdowns are very slight flat betting, rarely more than around the 10 unit mark.
With the positive prog they are larger, sometimes around 20 units, but part of the progression strategy is exit point and getting out after the good run - which is almost inevitable. I've attached a little graph to show the BR trend in the second Spielbank test with the progression. It was very up and down, but had two good runs. I can live with that. It covers 100 spins, 90 bets.

[Number Six]

 (feel abit sad testing all the time and not playing for real, however my time will come and ill be well prepaired)

JONO

Let Elvis give you some advice: only fools rush in 

[Davemd]

TEST TEST TEST TEST TEST,


I made up an even chance method the other night,

only showed a 2 unit loss once after testing 15 x 100 spin sessions,

Got so confident I played it for real money and lost a 20 unit bankroll in only 79 spins,

Just goes to show TEST it to death before you part with any money,

                                                                                            Davemd.

[xman1970]

Wise words Davemd 


Herb reckons 10,000 PLACED bets is the testing benchmark......

[Number Six]

I'm going to post the results from my Spielbank test [only] here using the aggressive way. I have done a few other preliminary tests, but I won't include those results.

[table=,]
Test,Spins,Bets,Won,Lost,Hit Rate,FB Bal,Prog Bal
1,100,81,46,35,56.8%,+11,+32
2,100,90,46,44,51.1%,+2,+14
3,100,90,50,40,55.6%,+10,+22
4,100,90,46,44,51.1%,+2,-11
5,100,82,45,37,54.9%,+8,+12
6,100,89,46,43,51.7%,+3,+20
7,100,86,44,42,51.2%,+2,+2
8,100,79,33,46,41.8%,-15,-18
9,100,76,33,43,43.4%,-10,0
10,100,93,56,37,60.2%,+19,+77
TOTAL,1000,856,445,411,52.0%,+34,+150
[/table]

Fourth test was negative with the staking plan. There was a good exit point, though, after around 60 spins where it was +10 - prior to that the balance was mostly negative. It slumped straightaway, had a good run and then slumped again. It was also a tough session for flat betting. A tough session all round.

I'm still quite impressed, however, as the testing doesn't entirely reflect real play and every session has produced good exit points...with the staking plan I would have taken, +32, +26, +13, +10, +13, +36, +10, +11, +24 and +39.  

ADD: I've decided to carry on with test for another five sessions. That will be 1000 spins and hopefully not much short of 1000 bets. I believe those sorts of figures will offer a more useful guideline regarding the method's performance and reliability. Session six was excellent with the staking plan and the BR exploded to +46 at one point, to reach a record high of +115. That is the best run yet. It involved winning 10 out of 11 bets, with some good double and triple wins.

Session 7 had a drawdown to -15. A good run got the balance back to +10 - a good exit point there. The hit rate is dropping slowly but surely.

Session 8 is the worst performance yet. +11 was a good exit point using the progression. I would have been happy to quit there with that. The hit rate was a disgrace. I've already decided the aggressive way is not viable with the staking plan, and I will look to change it but for now I'll finish the last two tests and then go back over the results to strengthen the in-game strategy. The BR is on its way down now, we'll see if it's got any recovery ability. I have to reiterate that although some sessions have been negative, they have all produced acceptable exit points. Maybe it's a fluke but a good run almost always appears. Some last longer than others, but even in session eight (where the balance was perpetually negative on both sides of the good run) it was positive for 8 spins and that was a good window to exit.

I have to laugh at session 10. This is the last test and it was astounding. After two sessions of slumping, it hit back hugely. With the staking plan it was +77 to end, which doubled the entire balance in only 100 spins. It was basically a perfect session in which all three series remained dominant for the whole spin sample. My exit point would have been +39, very early on. 

6

BR graph for 1000 spins and for session 10:

[I have cookies]

flat betting
a system indicates a genuine superiority if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained
or if after 100000 placed bets a result better than - 1000 was obtained

[MATTJONO]

Number6,

what positve progression have you been using i was using 1,1,2,3,4,5...ect seems like we have been getting the same results and having looked at your graph im saying your due a nice +30 for the last 100 spins.

so far so good tho we have had no big drawdowns which is why the system is so safe.

would something like marvins 5 level staking plan work with this system as the losses and wins seem to clump together alot.
(ill have a look anyway but im sure it works better with more than a 18number bet.)

JONO

[Number Six]

flat betting
a system indicates a genuine superiority if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained
or if after 100000 placed bets a result better than - 1000 was obtained

I believe that it's possible to achieve +100 from 1000 bets using this simple method, but only in conjunction with an effective exit strategy and maybe some in-play variation. The drawdowns flat betting are only very slight. I would very much use a predetermined profit target flat betting and with the positive progression I'd exit depending on how the session is progressing. A short good run might get you from -15 to +10 or better. If that session was going difficult up to that point, I'd cut out there and not expect to get any higher if I stayed. If you're hovering at around even, a good run will easily get you up to +30 or +40. The method can be improved, I'm sure, by making the bet selection a little less rigid. However, in the fifth session of my test an OO-E sequence stayed dominant for 100 spins, and if it wasn't for that the ending balance probably would have been negative again. The OO-E sequence won around 15 in 20 bets, and collapsed towards the end. It was fun testing, and I may look back on the results to see where the bet method is most vulnerable. I'm thinking the staking plan it not 100% suitable.

--------

would something like marvins 5 level staking plan work with this system as the losses and wins seem to clump together alot.

That is the staking plan I've been using. On the very good runs it's absolutely brilliant and will make you a lot of units. With quite a few Ls mixed in with the Ws, though, it's like one step forward, one back, and you never get anywhere. I may look to tweak it a little to add a bit of protection to the profits.

[I have cookies]

but only in conjunction with an effective exit strategy and maybe some in-play variation

Then if you are flat betting then you can reduce you win target with the amount of loses.

[I have cookies]

If you know how to hovering around 50% or hit a ratio above 50% then this can become useful.

Lets say you have a 5 units bankroll to win 5 units.
Then you do this when you make your first attack.

Reducing your win target depending on your loses.
If you hit one loss when you play you reduce your win target of 5 units to 4 units.
If you hit two loses when you play you reduce your win target of 5 units to 3 units.
If you hit three loses when you play you reduce your win target of 5 units to 2 units.
If you hit four loses when you play you reduce your win target of 5 units to 1 unit.
If you hit 5 loses the attack is over with a 5 unit loss.

Here is one thing you can add to this.
If you won and finish one attack and are at least +1 then you can let it ride until you hit your first loss then end that session.

a) Profit 19 units flat betting with a 5 units bankroll using allternativ one only.

b) Profit 19 units flat betting with a 5 units bankroll using allrenativ one and let it ride.

Demonstration.
Trngs 080114
LW Registry wlwlnolinkslwlwlwwlwwllnolinksllwlwlwlnolinksnolinkswwlwwlwlwlnolinkslwlnolinksnolinksllw

Session 1.

w 1 +1
l 1 0..................Reduce win target by 1
w 1 +1
l 1 0
w 1 +1
w 1 +2
w 1 +3
l 1 +2
w 1 +3
l 1 +2
w 1 +3
l 1 +2
w 1 +3
w 1 +4 ...... Session is over +4 units profit. Here you could let the last win ride until one loss.
l 1 +3 ........ Session ends with +3 units profit.

---

Session 2.

w 1 +1
w 1 +2
l 1 +1
l 1 0...........Reduce win target by 2.
w 1 +1
w 1 +2
w 1 +3 ..... Session is over +3 units profit. Here you could let the last win ride until one loss.
l 1 +2 .......Session ends with +2 units profit.

---

Session 3.

l 1 -1 ......... Reducing win targen by 1.
w 1 0
l 1 -1
w 1 0
l 1 -1
w 1 0
l 1 -1
w 1 0
w 1 +1
w 1 +2
w 1 +3
w 1 +4 ....... Session is over +4 units profit. Here you could let the last win ride until one loss.
w 1 +5
w 1 +6
w 1 +7
l 1 +6 ......... Session ends with +6 units profit.

---

Session 4.

w 1 +1
w 1 +2
l 1 +1
w 1 +2
l 1 +1
w 1 +2
l 1 +1
w 1 +2
w 1 +3
w 1 +4
l 1 +3

----

Session 5.

w 1 +1
l 1 0
w 1 +1
w 1 +2
w 1 +3
w 1 +4
w 1 +5
w 1 +6
l 1 +5

[I have cookies]

Here is Matt's LW-Registry from the first post.
W=27 L=10

Session 1

W 1
L  1
W 1
W 1
W 1 +4

Session 2

W 1
L  1
W 1
L  1
W 1
W 1
W 1
L  1
L  1
W 1
W 1 +3

Session 3
W 1
W 1
L  1
W 1
W 1
L  1
W 1
W 1 +4

Session 4

L  1
W 1
W 1
L  1
L  1
W 1
W 1
W 1
W 1 +3

W
W
W
W

[Number Six]

If you know how to hovering around 50% or hit a ratio above 50% then this can become useful.

Lets say you have a 5 units bankroll to win 5 units.
Then you do this when you make your first attack.

Reducing your win target depending on your loses.
If you hit one loss when you play you reduce your win target of 5 units to 4 units.
If you hit two loses when you play you reduce your win target of 5 units to 3 units.
If you hit three loses when you play you reduce your win target of 5 units to 2 units.
If you hit four loses when you play you reduce your win target of 5 units to 1 unit.
If you hit 5 loses the attack is over with a 5 unit loss.

Here is one thing you can add to this.
If you won and finish one attack and are at least +1 then you can let it ride until you hit your first loss then end that session.

Yep, I'm thinking along these lines. There needs to be a way of protecting the accumulated profits. For example, with Marven's staking plan you might get a triple win of 5u each...but then lose it all, or most of it, on the next bet. Sometimes the balance was rising to +40, then fifteen bets later is was back to even. I think in the grand scheme of things you can easily tell how a session is going and should adjust targets accordingly. If I was up and down for 60 spins, then hit a good run a climbed up to +20ish, I'd just quit there. In 100 spins you'll rarely see more than a +15 profit flat betting and +40 with a positive progression, so those are good benchmarks. If you hit those range, you're not getting higher.

[I have cookies]

Well i am not Marven i am Lucky Strike

Cheers

[MATTJONO]

Is i

Well I am not Marven I am Lucky Strike

Cheers

t just me or am i abit slow. didnt know 'I have cookies' was you lucky strike.

[MATTJONO]

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