Things I learned while playing the G.U.T. in 2008.

[TwoCatSam]

Guys

Recently I took a serious downturn while playing the G.U.T.  Before, during and after that miserable experience, I learned a few things.  In the next few posts, I am going to elaborate on them.  Thanks to winkel for asking me to do this.  I really need it for my own reference for the future.

I have to say that for me the G.U.T. is still in the experimental/testing phase of its life.  I have not declared this to be the "Holy Grail" or even a winning system.  I have always allowed my fantastic results could have all been just luck.

With that in mind, one to post 1.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

All.......

People around me saw my results (from $201 to over $1300) and said I should be betting a minimum of $5 per number.  Anything that won the way this did deserved more than a $1 bet.  They offered up money for me to bet with.  I refused.  KFS told me not to pull my money out of the stock market for the G.U.T. just yet, and he was spot on.

I'm thinking I need 400 times my bet, so at $800 I could have gone to $2 bets.  I was at $1200 or so, and I did go to $2 bets in spite of the fact I had written I would stay with $1 until 2009.  I did not follow my plan.  This was my first mistake.

For one, you have to click the mouse twice to place a $2 bet.  You can't just designate you bet as being $2 as you can at the B & M casinos.  Having to click twice sounds like a small thing to do and it is when you're betting 10 or numbers or so.  But at 17, it's a trick to get them all down.  You have to train your mind to click quickly and move on.  It's not as easy as it sounds.

Secondly, when I went from $00.50 to $1.00 bets per number, I felt the pressure of making such a large bet.  My breathing changed; my heart rate changed.  I would have driven a lie detector over the edge.  Just for a $1 bet!  This physical condition I experienced comes from betting above your personal comfort level.

When I went to $2 bets, the whole world changed.  I don't remember much about it really.  I probably should have filmed it and went back and watched the videos.  I probably made a ton of stupid mistakes and didn't even know it.  I'm sure I bet non-existent crossings and too many crossings and too many times on each crossing.

People on the sidelines--no matter how well-intentioned--always cheer you to bet more since they can shake their head and walk away.  You eat the loss.  My new motto:  He who eats the loss decides the bet!

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

Hey...

Somewhere around December 2nd or 3rd, Microgaming changed wheels.  They changed from a medium fret wheel whose manufacturer I do not know to a Huxley Starburst.  I'm very familiar with it as it was the wheel at CasinoWebCam.  This wheel, compared to the other, is very hard to see and is quite hard on my eyes.  The gold really reflects the light and I can't even see the ball until they zoom.  Very upsetting!!

So what do I do?  I double my bets with a new wheel.  When I say "new" I mean new to the G.U.T.  Any fool with half a brain would have pulled back to see what the new wheel would do, but I just forged ahead.  I'm sure most will say that a wheel is a wheel is a wheel.  I disagree.  I totally believe certain wheels are conducive to certain systems.  While at the end of the brazillion spin trot, the numbers will do as expected, they will dance all over hell and half of Texas getting there.

I absolutely do not believe this Starburst wheel behaves the way the former wheel did.  The Track4 looks different and crossings are much harder to hit.  Now, from a physiological point of view, I may just be seeing an excuse for why my bankroll dropped.  Two months from now I may say there is no difference in the wheels.  But at this point, I am searching for the reason for my downturn.

Let's do the math:  I raised my bets + Microgaming threw a new wheel at me = nervous ol' geezer who can't hold it still enough to hit the can.  Should not be betting!! 

The wise thing to have done would have been to drop the bet size back to fifty-cents and see what the new wheel did. 

Lastly, I have to raise the issue of why Microgaming sluffed off a perfectly good wheel.  I thought it was because they had to do "maintenance" all the time.  Nope!  Still do that.  Wasn't the wheel.  Could it be that people had somehow zeroed in on that wheel and casinos were loosing money? 

Sam

[winkel]

Hi TCS,

some rules I found for myself:

- Only put that money into a gambling bankroll which is absolutely free and not meant for any other pupose.
- play a unit-size which ist measured on your bankroll and your kind of strategy.

you have to click the mouse twice to place a $2 bet.

Moneymangament is a nice guide to increase bet-unit-size. If it is difficult to bet 2 units (or 3) so just change (my) MM.
Don´t double after you reached 3 times your Bankroll. If you have to go from $1 to $5 just calculate:
You would need 600 times 5$-unit thats 3000$ plus Starting-BR-size of 600$ for $1-units.

I felt the pressure of making such a large bet

I know this. It happened to me every time I doubled the unit-size. The only way to get over it is to be that familiar with the game, that you know:
- you can always recover
- you will not lose your Starting-bankroll and be able to start again.
- all that can happen is to lose your Starting-Bankroll, which is money you would have spent for other fun things you would have done if you wouldn´t play roulette as a hobby. (Horse-Race, Lottery, Bingo, Theater, Holiday)

the whole world changed.  I don't remember much about it really.

If you get that "Fever" again: Stop immediately. Return to a level you feel comfortable.

br
winkel

[TwoCatSam]

winkel

I learned years ago that you can't win on "scared money".  The money I gamble with is not any household money.  As you say, it is my fun money.  I am not scared of loosing the money for the money's sake; I fear loosing because I just don't want to loose!  Just like playing Shanghai with the family--you just don't want to loose.

I am putting in place rules and guidelines so I do not totally loose my mind again.

Thanks for your positive input!

I still have the faith!

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

People......

If you're so good you don't need a win limit or a loss limit, the wheel will show you you're not really that good!  Well, at least it did me!

On my first trot out after going to $2, I went up as usual.  Had I had a win limit in place, I would have quit and walked away.  From there, who knows what would have happened?  I have a very hard time ending a session in the red.  I just keep thinking that if I hold out a while longer, it will turn--and it usually does.  The times it doesn't literally kill your bankroll.  I recall writing how I went down $400 (200 units) and recovered.  I trusted that I could always do that.  Not so! 

I have learned that if you go down 50u with the G.U.T. then it is probably not your day.  I don't know why this phenomenon happens, but it does as surely as the sunrise.  If you make it to -50 and keep on, you may recover and you may see -150 and then stop.  In the future, I will stop at -50 or +50 for that session and then no play again for at least 4 hours. 

As I said in my videos, it seems the wheel talks to you--if you know how to listen.  When you have a bet on 28 and 29 and you get 7 and loose, you might want to note that on your mental post-it pad.  When you start hitting near-bys and never the number, the wheel is telling you it won't co-operate today.  Also, when you can't hit the big crossings (16/15 or 15/14) you better assess you chances of having a loosing session.  If I miss two of those in a row, I'm thinking right there--the wheel is talking to me!

On the other hand, when you're having a fantastic day you can count on it changing.  For me, it does not change with dealers--it just changes.  For now I'll be happy with 50u per session, but someday I might inch up on that.  When I do, I'll stay with the good trend until I get a couple of losses and then log out.

One other thing about the G.U.T.  It is eternal!  As long as the wheel spins, you can come back.  It's not like betting on Rare Bear in the tenth.  He's an old horse and he'll be dog food before long.  Better bet 'em while you can!  Not so with the G.U.T.  Take a week off and when you come back it will still be there.  There is no hurry.  The next session you start is merely a continuation of the one you just left; you just jumped back to spin 1 instead of spin 20.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

When the Roman general returned from the conquest in his Chariot, beside him would be a slave whispering in his ear, "All fame is fleeting."  Such is with the game of roulette.

Just about the time you think you've got it down pat, you learn you don't.  I looked at myself and found that the things that got me to $1368 were not the same things I was doing when I started to loose.  I had become sloppy in my playing.  Sloppy in my betting and very sloppy in my attention to the Track4.  If you don't keep the Track4 at the forefront of your play, you will loose.  Whether on paper or the screen, the Track4 is the vital tool to make this system work. 

I thought I was just pretty damn good!  I was not humble or thankful.  I thought I had the thing whipped.  I got taken down a couple of notches.  Just like the high school kid who goes of to college and finds that he's not the quarterback he thought he was.  He might become that, but he's not now!

Hopefully I have learned from my mistakes and will move on with a more cautious air about me.  The only good thing I can say for myself is I did not loose the bankroll entirely--just severely dented it. 

I'm just thankful I was not using a table saw.  You wouldn't be reading this now!

Sam

[Lohnro]

I'm thinking I need 400 times my bet, so at $800 I could have gone to $2 bets.

Hey Sam, in all my testing of GUT, my biggest drawdown was over 1200 units! I believe it is just statistical variance that "had" to happen, but it keeps bouncing back.

Good Luck.

[TwoCatSam]

Lohnro

Thank you, my friend!  I sincerely hope you are right.

Sam

[Marven]

Great posts Sam.
I am learning from them.

Been and will keep following your journey with the GUT.

All the best to you,
Marven

[kompressor]

its just weird that this downturn happened right after the wheel change....

about your new money management....I think you must continue to play the way that bring you there....at over 2000$....you have already withdraw 1k and you still at 850$....but I will stay with 1$ bet and make the big jump to 5$ bet at the right time...like winkel said

[TwoCatSam]

Marven and kompressor

Thanks for your replies.  If someone can learn from my mistakes, that lessens them! 

I probably should just go to $5 bets when the time comes.

Sam

[Proofreaders2000]

Keep in mind sleight of hand.  The wheel may be on a tilt, or other things in play behind the scenes that may hamper your play. 
If anything else you are an inspiration for continuing to play after a heavy loss.
Also like Kompressor said you did withdraw $1K out of the deal...not bad.

[hoper35]

Except in Cape Breton, where they removed their only roulette table.  Now if I want to play roulette while I'm on vacation I would have to go to Halifax, which is about a five hour drive (One way).

Ron.

[TwoCatSam]

To any interested....

I have learned that a $50 loss limit will not work with the G.U.T.  You have swings of $100 or 100 units regularly.  When I started my study, I should have had a column for lowest point in the the session.  Then I could have graphed my daily swings.

What I am learning is I don't really know how to conduct a proper test----yet!

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

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