Static and random bet selections or educated guess work.

[lucky_strike]

Hi.

1) What is a "static bet selection" and how do we define it?

Well for me a static bet selection is any kind of pattern or patterns with any combination of red and black.
He or she can play with them or against them but use the same pattern or patterns to do so, thats a static bet selection.

2) What is a "random bet selection" and how do we define it?

Well for me a random bet selection is any kind of pattern or patterns you pick randomly and play with or against them.
But its only become random against random if you continue to pick new patterns randomly and play with or against them.

3) What is a "educated guess" and how do we define it?

I cant define an educated guess, i think its like having great knowledge about how you can find string of events, waves with an regularity, that you can play with or against.
Well that is what i have done when i have experementing with educated guess work.

Cheers Lucky Strike

[lucky_strike]

What do we use and why is there an differens?

Cheers Lucky Strike

[gizmotron]

What do we use and why is there an differens?

Cheers Lucky Strike

I use 1. & 3.

What is a "static bet selection" and how do we define it?

I use another term, symmetry. Not that I'm seeing a congruent form that is the opposite on the other side of a line. Something repeats a group of spins to the next symmetrical group of spins the same. It's a loose interpretation of the form for me. It does not require perfect symmetry, to be effective as a tool.

What is a "educated guess" and how do we define it?

It's in finding a situational awareness that allows you to make a choice to bet into continuance or the likelihood that the opposite is more true. You create a set of premises that tend to hold up and then fall apart. Educated guessing is about using situational awareness with those premises in an attempt to determine 'when' something is working best. Educated guessing is situational awareness of something working well.

[lucky_strike]

What a great reply Gizmo, thanks.

Lets assume nothing is due to happen and past outcomes has no value.
Then there will be no patterns.

Then the only option would be to stick with nr 2 of this post above and see if we can win that way for years or to see if its just an illusion.

So how do we create an true random bet selection that always change with the flow of the distribution.
And how do we play them, with or against, is there an differens?

Would we use an hybrid of flat betting and progression or would we just use one of them.
Would it be any differens?

LS

[gizmotron]

Lets assume nothing is due to happen and past outcomes has no value.
Then there will be no patterns.

Actually, wouldn't it be more true that no patterns are due. There is nothing preventing a pattern from continuing or happening.

Then the only option would be to stick with nr 2 of this post above and see if we can win that way for years or to see if its just an illusion.

Well, recognizing a pattern is just an illusion. It's officially called "the clustering illusion." Symbolically in your head you identify it. Nothing is expected to be due. Nothing can prevent it from continuing. You don't take the illusion as some predictor. You only use it to see if continuation is prevalent. It's a premise to make a bet and nothing else. So, can situational awareness show you the times that the clustering illusions continues? It's not about expectations or predictors. Guess what? No. 2 lives in the same thin rarefied air. There are no expectations or predictors there either.

So how do we create an true random bet selection that always change with the flow of the distribution.
And how do we play them, with or against, is there an differens?

I have no idea. They are your preferred premises. Perhaps others here are into your kind or shape of random groupings. I find that combining singles and doubles together, singles alone, and doubles alone provides me with enough randomness, based on the concept of continuation or ending provides me with enough information for formulating my preferred premises.

Would we use an hybrid of flat betting and progression or would we just use one of them.
Would it be any differens?

I use a high enough bet value that 10 to 20 netted wins is enough t make the session and my time worth the trouble. On every first loss I drop to table minimums in order to deflect the first moves of a rapid downturn. It helps me hang on to my winnings. I see times when I get win streaks and I see times when it gets very difficult. I just back down until the good times return.

[dennisbelle]

"I see times when I get win streaks and I see times when it gets very difficult. I just back down until the good times return." 

Bet more during the good times and less during the difficult time.  Good advice, now if I could just tell the difference.  Some times it is black and white and some times it is shades of gray.  If it was easy everyone would be doing it.[smiley=3/abduct.gif]

[lucky_strike]

Thanks again for a great reply lol there is action when you are around, i totaly love it

Then the only option would be to stick with nr 2 of this post above and see if we can win that way for years or to see if its just an illusion.

Guess what? No. 2 lives in the same thin rarefied air. There are no expectations or predictors there either.

Well i don't see how it lives in the same thin rarefied air, if there is an random element with one "static" rule to get them, then the "bet selection with an random element", will not become the same thing as playing aginst 24 reds in a row, that would be an "static bet selection" due to happen.

One bet selection with an random element change all the time with the flow of the distribution, so you would never play with or against the same 24 in a row to appear and it would not be due to happen, because of an momentum that you never play with or against the same thing or in the same moment.

The distribution continues to change and so does the bet selection with an random element.

So how do we create an true random bet selection that always change with the flow of the distribution.
And how do we play them, with or against, is there an differens?

I have no idea. They are your preferred premises. Perhaps others here are into your kind or shape of random groupings. I find that combining singles and doubles together, singles alone, and doubles alone provides me with enough randomness, based on the concept of continuation or ending provides me with enough information for formulating my preferred premises.

Well as i mention above we can creat an "bet selection whit an random element that follow the flow of the distribution" with one simpel "static" rule.
I actually think there is many different ways to do just that.

And regarding hubrids or not for a staking plan, well i am not sure if there would be an differens, because it depends on what our goal is to achive.
So is there an all in for a life time.

Cheers Lucky Strike

[gizmotron]

Bet more during the good times and less during the difficult time.  Good advice, now if I could just tell the difference.  Some times it is black and white and some times it is shades of gray.  If it was easy everyone would be doing it.

If you are patient then the first loss is the beginning of a downturn. So what if you miss out on a few wins that would have been higher. After the first loss, test the waters with lowest possible betting.  It's not easy to be a patient player.

[gizmotron]

Thanks again for a great reply lol there is action when you are around, i totaly love it

Well i don't see how it lives in the same thin rarefied air, if there is an random element with one "static" rule to get them, then the "bet selection with an random element", will not become the same thing as playing against 24 reds in a row, that would be an "static bet selection" due to happen.

So you do believe in something being due. I don't. There is nothing that can make the next outcome due. It will continue or it won't. There is nothing to prevent either.

It's another story if you are betting like something is due even if you don't expect that it is due.

[VLSroulette]

Bet more during the good times and less during the difficult time. Good advice, now if I could just tell the difference.

Dennis,

The situational awareness exercise by excellence is simple, Manrique mentioned it to someone who couldn't grasp the situational-play concept:

- "When it comes RED, bet RED."

Simple enough right?

Times when continuation is favoring RED (clusters of 2+) are to be experienced clearly by the concatenated wins.

Times when ZIG-ZAG is dominant are to be seen clearly too because after red you lay a bet and you are missing over and over, you just can't miss that! It is clearly seen at the marquee too.

Make a registry for the results of this simple situational awareness exercises; you will also spot times when it is gray, as it is neither a disaster nor holding up well.

Try it! Before jumping into detecting cycles for higher-paying locations (or combinations of them), this simple exercise will force you to see the times and -when betting real money- "your brain says it, your body expresses it".



"your brain says it, your body expresses it"

How? You brain communicates by automated thoughts ("now it is time", "not a single more bet, this is going down"), your body says it by feeding you with emotions, when you feel it is a bad time, when you are nervous and sweaty and not confident of your game, this is how it conveys you the message.

There is a whole branch of betting named "psychological play" used by Spanish players, they spot the physical symptoms for losing and winning players at the casino and bet with or against them. It is the same, just using yourself (given you still have emotions when betting of course!  ).



A way to force your brain to situational awareness.

The most successful situational players I've heard of are the ones playing to eat.

Is this by chance? No.

When you are betting to eat you only want to lay your bets at the times you perceive to be the most optimal for your bet selection. It is your perceived times, true, but this is simply because of playing to eat triggers your survival mechanisms and your brain automatically uses as much of your known experience and information to guarantee survival.

In the light of this am I telling you to go and play to eat to force your brain to deliver? NO.

There is a lighter way to achieve this mental state shall you choose to experience such, and it lies in taking money destined to a vanity you truly like and are 20% short.

Choose to make that money 10 units. Aim to win +2 units or your 20% to get what you truly want.

10 units do not make that much of a room at this extreme-prone fluctuating game so you better focus.

Train your brain at home as much as possible and then when confident take what you have to the casino and bet with this money you know you are getting a reward if you can manage to win OR you will spoil getting what you will truly enjoy. (of course, as it is isn't neither rent money nor food money but vanity, there won't be any real trouble.. remember, vanity money only).

A yet more softcore way will be to simply train at the simulator and reward yourself with something you like only if your hit rate is getting you to 20% consistently over a period of time. No real-money play.
Thing is you don't have to cheat yourself, if you are truly faithful once your brain sees making the effort is rewarded, then you will have your ally.

Brains can be trained, but brains are like puppies, they need that rewarding price. Once you have your "puppy in the head" trained you can count of it. It won't buy you luck, but a trained brain will make as much as possible within its reach to achieve the goal, in this regard, you can rest assured your trained brain won't let you down.

Best regards.
Victor

[lucky_strike]

It will continue or it won't. There is nothing to prevent either.

There is an momentum that can do just that for years, thats the main idea, but as you put it, the never ending story will become an illusion.
It can work because you change with the flow of the distribution and so does your bet selection with a random element and its once in use and never more, but it could appear the same momentum 100 000 trail later, then you would use the same bet selection with an random element once more.

Well we will see what it all ends, more to come i hope...

Cheers Lucky Strike

[gizmotron]

There is an momentum ...

You bet there is a momentum. There are also times when oppositions, back and forth, group in streaks of like momentum. That's why I like to look at session situational awareness too. Sometimes the larger look at what is happening provides you with a winning premise you might not have expected.

[dennisbelle]

Gizmotron & Victor,
     Thank you for your comments and advice.
Lucky,
      In the past I have tested random against random (a random shoe of baccarat decisions against a random coin flip) I tested betting the same and betting against the random coin flip (bank=heads, player =tails) but I didn't see any difference in the WL strings compared to the WL strings generated with bank/player decisions.  My tests were limited so they weren't conclusive.  That is why I am interested in your assertion  "If you want to know more about this i can make post about it.  There are ways to play even money bets for years with out losing using a random element with a bet selection."  Please elaborate!
                                                                                                     [smiley=xit/isplatavi6.gif]     Dennis

[lucky_strike]

There are ways to play even money bets for years with out losing using a random element with a bet selection."

Yes it can, the question is if it will do just that.
There are a member on this forum that will code this for me.

The thing is i have try to explain this and made a post about it.
There was no one that understand it, but the core is what i have been saying in my previos posts.

Any thing can happen because nothing is due, but i am saying that there is a way around that.
So it can fail the very first day of play and would be the same thing as winning the lotteri or be hit by lightning.
That is how i see it, so thats why i say it can take years before it fails.

I have sent you an PM so you can add me to MSN.
Then i can explain it for you and then we will see if you understand my idea, method.

I would not use it before the code is done, so we can see the test results.

Cheers Lucky Strike

[madupz4]

Yes it can, the question is if it will do just that.
There are a member on this forum that will code this for me.

The thing is i have try to explain this and made a post about it.
There was no one that understand it, but the core is what i have been saying in my previos posts.

Any thing can happen because nothing is due, but i am saying that there is a way around that.
So it can fail the very first day of play and would be the same thing as winning the lotteri or be hit by lightning.
That is how i see it, so thats why i say it can take years before it fails.

I have sent you an PM so you can add me to MSN.
Then i can explain it for you and then we will see if you understand my idea, method.

I would not use it before the code is done, so we can see the test results.

Cheers Lucky Strike

I am very interested in random numbers as well.  Hopefully we will learn more soon!

[madupz4]

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